Disciples of Uecker

Sometimes, leaderboards can be shocking. Take, for instance, the Brewers leading hittersa by OPS.

That’s right – Yovani Gallardo is currently the Brewers leader in OPS. He trails Prince Fielder by all of 1 point in wOBA, .389 vs. .388. In 60 plate appearances, Gallardo has seven singles, three doubles, four home runs, eight walks, and two hit by pitches. Really, the only aspect of hitting in which Gallardo hasn’t excelled this year is contact – he’s struck out 15 times – but when it’s backed up by this kind of performance, that’s unimportant for any hitter, much less a pitcher.

Of course, this is Gallardo’s best season at the plate. However, solid hitting is nothing new for Gallardo. The would-be slugger posted a .800 OPS in the minor leagues and a .256 wOBA in his first two full seasons as a starter. That’s right between Cezar Izturis and Jose Lopez on the 2010 leaderboard, and well above the league average for starting pitchers.

With this year’s crazy numbers, particularly the .288 ISO – nearly double the league average! – Gallardo has raised his overall MLB hitting line to .220/.260/.428. The OBP isn’t enough to make him a good hitter, but with those kinds of power numbers as a hitter, Gallardo’s career wOBA of .296 is only about 20 points higher than Jason Kendall’s, and that’s extremely valuable, especially considering Gallardo is typically pitching in low scoring games.

One of the reasons that Carlos Zambrano has been so valuable for the Cubs is the fact that he’s also an excellent hitter. Yovani Gallardo has the same potential, particularly the way he’s been hitting this year, and he’s as good a pitcher as Zambrano used to be (if not better) without being completely insane. It’s an extraordinarily underrated part of his game, and it greatly increases his value to the Brewers.

Ostensibly, the only reason that Chris Narveson even started the season on the Brewers MLB roster was because he was out of options, and couldn’t be sent back to AAA without being exposed to waivers. Narveson began the year in the bullpen, but really struggled in that role as he was often used against right handers (probably due to his changeup) and the struggles that plagued his first innings as a starter were evident in his relief outings as well. He was one run below replacement in his 10 relief innings, which doesn’t sound like much, but in so few innings that is extraordinarily poor performance.

However, when Jeff Suppan was finally and mercifully evicted from the rotation, it was Chris Narveson who was called to replace him. The issue that has held him back in the past continued to work against Narveson from his first start against the Pirates on April 28th: home runs. Narveson allowed two home runs against Pittsburgh that day and has allowed at least two home runs every month of the season. Narveson was particularly bad in July, when he allowed seven home runs, including three against the Giants on July 7th (the series that effectively sank the season for good) and two against the Nationals on July 23rd. All in all, Narveson has allowed 19 home runs on the season, and the fact that he’s a fly ball pitcher who doesn’t tend to induce weak contact in the air means that he will probably continue to give up a lot of home runs. His 1.25 HR/9 rate – 130% of the league average – is almost entirely responsible for his 5.33 ERA and is the reason why his 4.48 FIP is above the league average.

Narveson does everything else as well or better than the average pitcher. He has struck out nearly seven batters per nine innings, which is almost exactly the league average. His three walks per nine innings is about 90% of the league average. Were Narveson better at keeping the ball in the yard, we could expect him to be a league average pitcher.

His mighty struggles against right handed batters in particular seem to suggest that he would perform better in the bullpen, but there are two strong reasons for keeping Narveson in the rotation going forward. First of all, Narveson’s first inning struggles have followed him to the rotation, and although it is extremely rare, Narveson just seems to have more trouble with the first time through the order as opposed to the third time through like most pitchers. Hitters hit 60% better against Narveson in the first inning by OPS+ and 70% better against Narveson as a reliever. The sample is small but these numbers pervade his entire career, although to a lesser extent.

Secondly, Narveson is simply too good as a starter despite these struggles. He projects as a roughly 1.5 WAR pitcher going forward, which means a #4 or a #5 in a good rotation, and a #3 in what the Brewers have on hand. There’s little chance that Narveson could approach that kind of value in the bullpen, so unless the Brewers can amass a starting rotation with five superior pitchers, they’re better off letting Narveson work around his issues as a starting pitcher.

Chris Narveson was definitely a question mark entering the season, but Doug Melvin and Ken Macha saw the potential in him to be a solid big league starter. Although he will probably never become an average pitcher or better, the Brewers have a productive, cost-controlled, back-end starter in Narveson, and that’s an important piece as this team attempts to contend over the next few seasons.

Yovani Gallardo’s results of late certainly leave a bit to be desired, as the Brewers’ ace has a 7.23 ERA in his last eight starts since returning from injury. However, Gallardo has struck out 49, walked only 17, and allowed 4 home runs in the 42.1 innings in those starts. Gallardo is simply suffering a stretch where the hits are falling in, and although it isn’t pretty watch and it isn’t helping the team, nothing in his peripheral numbers suggests it’s anything to be alarmed about.

FanGraphs WAR still has Gallardo at a fantastic 3.9 WAR, and my preliminary, currently black box and work-in-progress version of pitcher WAR that takes into account pitcher BABIP and team BABIP has Gallardo at roughly 2.5 WAR. By either standard, Gallardo has been good to great, and as far as next year is concerned, FanGraphs WAR is far more predictive. Gallardo is one of the premiere strikeout artists that can be found out of the rotation, and with the walks somewhat limited this year, he looks to be one step closer to assuming a role as a true staff ace.

Gallardo received a 5 year, 30 million dollar contract prior to this season, which looks like a major bargain from the club’s perspective right now, as it buys out one year of the league minimum, three arbitration years, and one free agent season with an option on a second. R.J. Anderson noted last night that Gallardo’s career has been exceptionally similar to that of Seattle Mariners staff ace Felix Hernandez, who received a 5 year, 78 million dollar contract covering his last two arbitration years and three free agent seasons. Jon Lester, Red Sox ace, received a 5 year, 30 million dollar contract – one of the top 10 contracts in baseball – from the Red Sox in 2009, with a service clock situation identical to that of Gallardo’s.

All three of these guys are excellent pitchers. Lester has compiled 15.5 WAR in the last three years and is projected for a 3.32 FIP by ZiPS. Hernandez has accrued 16.4 WAR with Seattle since 2008 and is projected for a 3.04 FIP. Gallardo is only at 7.0 WAR since 2010, but that’s largely due to missing the entirety of the 2008 season; substitute his 2007 WAR and Gallardo jumps up to 9.5 WAR. No doubt, Gallardo is a step below these aces, but the step forward that Gallardo has taken this season suggests that he may approach that kind of success, which is all the organization can ask for.

The Brewers have Gallardo locked up until 2014 at an extremely team friendly rate, and despite his recent struggles, every indication is that he’s ready to take the step forward and join the young class of pitchers that includes Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester. For as great as Ryan Braun has been and as great as Rickie Weeks has looked in 2010, it may be the presence of Yovani Gallardo and his team friendly contract that allows the Brewers to make another playoff run in the course of the next five seasons.

I feel as if this play from yesterday’s game against the Reds is the Brewers play of the year and should be in the running for best play of the year in baseball. In case the amount of ground that Cain had to cover doesn’t impress you from the video, take a look at this screengrab:

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If people weren’t appreciating Cain’s defense prior to this ridiculous catch combined with his dart to throw out a tagging Jay Bruce at second base, they should be now. Cain had the #9 and #2 plays on the ESPN top 10, and it’s not as though making solid defensive plays is any sort of new territory for the rookie. According to the FSN announcing crew, managers and players around the league have been raving about Cain, and his work in the outfield in particular, as he’s shown fantastic range ever since getting the call from the minors.

Right now, Cain is tearing the cover off of the ball, both in the sense of his solid .343 wOBA and in the sense of an insane 26.9% LD rate. Cain definitely profiles as a player who should typically have a high BABIP – say, .320-.330 – but expecting him to maintain a .364 BABIP would be unrealistic. As that falls off, Cain’s batting will probably hover around average, with the potential to be above average if he develops some power – something I wouldn’t hold my breath for, as Cain only hit 23 home runs in the minor leagues since 2006.

That said, take a roughly average or even slightly below average hitter with good defense in center field, and you’re looking at a 3+ WAR player with room to grow. Lorenzo Cain looks to be a huge asset for the Brewers in 2011 and beyond, and his skillset – his defense in particular – are just one of the reasons to be optimistic for the upcoming seasons.

There’s no doubt that Randy Wolf hasn’t been the player that Doug Melvin and the Milwaukee Brewers thought they were getting this season. Wolf earned his 3 year, $30 million contract with above average strikeout ability, average walk prevention, and a roughly average ground ball rate. Those skills combined to make ERAs and FIPs around 4.00, and even in some shortened seasons, Wolf had averaged 2.2 WAR per season from 2007-2009.

Instead, the Brewers have gotten all of 0.1 WAR out of Wolf. His strikeout rate has dipped below six per nine innings and the walk rate has climbed near four per nine. The home run rate is up as well, but that’s not terribly surprising given his move from Dodger Stadium to Miller Park, a much more homer-friendly ballpark. Bad things happen when walks go up and when strikeouts go down, and this confluence of both has effectively raised Wolf’s ERA, FIP and xFIP by a run or more.

Wolf has been more of his pre-2010 self in the last two months. His K/9 is up to 6.9 since July and, probably more importantly for a guy with Wolf’s stuff, his BB/9 is down to 3.0. As a result, Wolf has a 4.51 xFIP and a 4.02 FIP over these two months. The xFIP suggests that Wolf may not be back to the level that earned him his big contract, but both numbers indicate that Wolf should be able to contribute for the Brewers for the rest of 2010 and into 2011.

Of course, you can’t make too much from only two months of data. However, there are indicators that Wolf should be able to maintain this performance. First of all, Wolf’s fastball velocity is starting to approach the 89 MPH average it was at in Los Angeles last season.

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The data at FanGraphs has Wolf as throwing a two-seam fastball nearly 30% of the time, but I suspect that may simply be a misclassification of his fastball. You can see the rise in velocity a bit better on this pitch.

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Secondly, the sheer fact that Wolf has had past success is a good indicator of future success. ZiPS projects a 4.58 FIP going forward, which isn’t good but would certainly provide some value over a full season, and CHONE projects a similar 4.65 ERA. If the early dip in Wolf’s velocity was the cause of even some of his early season struggles, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect Wolf to beat these projections, if only slightly.

The Wolf contract is very likely to end up as a net loss for the Brewers, but that doesn’t mean that it is a lost cause like the Jeff Suppan contract the last two years. Instead, Wolf should be able to contribute for the remainder of the contract, particularly if he can sustain his performance over the past two months.

Thanks to the early injury suffered by Gregg Zaun – remember him? – Jon Lucroy was forced into duty about a year earlier than most expected him. Lucroy had put up solid numbers all the way from the Rookie Leagues through AA, and after Zaun’s injury, the Brewers felt comfortable installing Lucroy as the starting catcher at the young age of 24.

A big part of the reason that Lucroy is ready for the majors despite skipping AAA is his advanced defense. Lucroy probably isn’t an elite or even a great defensive catcher, but he’s shown a decent throwing arm, catching 28% of stolen base attempts. The average defensive catcher is an extremely valuable commodity, and Lucroy is looking like his defense is average to slightly above average.

To date, Jon Lucroy has a .266/.307/.351 line that really can only be described as Kendallian. Lucroy’s 81 wRC+ is right in line with the 78 and 75 wRC+ marks posted by Jason Kendall in 2007 and 2008. Right now, Lucroy’s hitting lines compare most favorably with Carlos Gomez and Alcides Escobar – not exactly great company.

Lucroy has shown good contact skills, only striking out in 15% of plate appearances, and his BABIP of .303 is basically average. The problem is that Lucroy has shown very little power and poor plate discipline. Lucroy was never a huge power threat, but he did hit 20 HRs in 2008 and 11 in 2009. The three HRs Lucroy has in 199 plate appearances is roughly in line with that 2009 mark; either way, we typically don’t learn much about a player’s power in a short season. Lucroy will probably never have above average MLB power – his swing doesn’t exactly strike me as a power stroke – but it’s far too early to say that he’ll be a singles hitter as he has been this season.

The lack of walks is far more disconcerting. Lucroy has only walked in 5% of plate appearances after walking 10% of the time in 2008 and 15% in 2009. The low walk rate makes some sense, given that Lucroy has swung at an unfathomable 40.2% of pitches out of the strike zone according to FanGraphs. That’s not quite Vlad Guerrero (46%) or Pablo Sandoval (43%) level, but it is near the top of the league. Lucroy ranks 14th in the league among players with at least 190 plate appearances, right between noted free swingers Alfonso Soriano and Yuniesky Betancourt. Soriano survives because he has crazy power, and Betancourt was the worst player in baseball in 2009. As discipline numbers tend to stabilize much quicker than power numbers, this is a legitimate concern for Lucroy.

Jon Lucroy is profiling as an average player right now: a poor hitter but a decent defensive catcher. That’s all well and good, and even at this point, we can be happy to have Jon Lucroy on the team for the foreseeable future. However, Lucroy won’t reach his full potential until he can learn to lay off some pitches out of the zone, as that should lead to both more walks and more power, as it’s just plain difficult to hit pitches out of the zone hard. Hopefully the Brewers coaches can recognize this and work to improve as the season winds down and as 2011 approaches, because thanks to his high ability to make contact, Lucroy should be able to hit at a solid level. It’s not there yet, but at age 24, Lucroy’s prime is yet to come.