Monthly Archives: April 2010

PADRES 9, Brewers 0: Fun With Odds

By Jack Moore on April 30, 2010

Game22

I’m not sure what I watched last night, but I’m pretty confident it wasn’t a major league baseball game. 13 singles, no extra base hits? Ground balls just finding hole after hole after hole? I’m not bitter or anything, but please. I thought Doug Davis actually pitched pretty well – there were only a couple hard hit balls, and a bunch of grounders that found their way through.

What really broke the game open was a 5 run 4th inning. Here’s the play log from that inning:

With runners on first and second, San Diego hitters recorded hits on three straight ground balls. Then, after a fielder’s choice, David Eckstein singled on a fly ball to center, scoring another run. The league batting average on ground balls is .236, and the league batting average on fly balls is .138. The odds of all four falling in for hits – with no knowledge of their trajectory – is .236*.236*.236*.138 = .00181, or .181%. Obviously, the hits managed to fall in because of their trajectories, but I’m more inclined to believe that that is luck as opposed to some sort of latent skill from the batters.

Then, we have the 5th inning, in which the Padres tacked on 4 more runs and chased Doug Davis. Here’s the play log from that inning:

Here we see seven straight singles, on a grounder, two line drives, and four fly balls. The batting average on line drives is substantially higher than on grounders or flies, at .724. So the odds of this sequence occuring is .236*.724*.724*.138*.138*.138*.138 = .0000449 = .00448%. 4 times out of 100000 for the 5th inning. 1 time out of 1000 for the 4th. This game was just the randomness of baseball at its finest, and I wouldn’t take too much out of it.

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Game 22 Thought: The Padres Are A Below Average Offensive Team

By Jack Moore on April 29, 2010

Right now, the Padres are sitting at 13-8 and are a remarkable first place in the National League standings. This is mostly due to some fantastic pitching by some young players like tonight’s starter Wade LeBlanc – performances which, for various reasons I don’t expect to hold up. The Padres will likely fall towards the back of the pack in what is looking like a loaded NL West, and that’s mostly because they simply don’t have the hitters to carry them over a 162 game season.

Adrian Gonzalez is, as is well documented, one of the best hitters in the league, and he’s lived up to that reputation so far this year, with a .319/.438/.625 line, supported by a crazy 16.9% BB% and .306 Isolated Power (SLG-AVG).

There’s a pretty huge dropoff in the lineup after Gonzalez. Chase Headley has had a great year so far (.337/.382/.446) but he doesn’t take a lot of walks, and as such his on base percentage is greatly supported by a .403 BABIP. He should fall back to earth soon. Will Venable is hitting for some scary power – .268 ISO is nearly twice of league average – but, again, he doesn’t take any walks, and without walks, a 29.6% K rate is going to result in a terrible on base percentage. Venable is currently sitting at a .295 OBP.

I’m a fan of Kyle Blanks, but he will not produce with his strikeout rate where it is right now – 41.5% of at bats. He’s walking and hitting for power, but he needs to start putting the ball in play. When he does, he can be a real threat. I’m also a fan of Scott Hairston, who has a similar issue, as he is currently striking out 36.1% of the time.

Tony Gwynn Jr. has learned how to walk, and is combining a good on base percentage with good outfield defense to become a productive player. PETCO park is perfect for him – I still don’t regret the trade that brought in Jody Gerut. Nick Hundley is a decent catcher – probably around an average hitter, but he’s splitting time with Yorvit Torrealba, who has no on-base skills at this point in his career.

Then we come to the dead weight. David Eckstein and Everth Cabrera are, simply put, poor hitters. Cabrera’s good 2009 was supported by an unprecedented 10.5% walk rate after a 9.3% walk rate in single A and a 23.3% K rate after a 21.1% K rate at the same level. That simply doesn’t happen very often, and is why ZiPS projected a paltry .646 OPS from Cabrera, nearly 100 points higher than what he’s actually posted so far. Eckstein makes a lot of contact, but that’s not really a good thing given his complete lack of power. If he hits a fly ball, it’s essentially an automatic out, and he doesn’t walk at all (3.9% BB rate). He’s just not a productive hitter.

The Padres have what look like some promising pieces, but overall an offense that is well below average. In spacious PETCO Park, the Brewers pitchers should be able to shut them down.

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Shameless Self Plug

By Jack Moore on April 29, 2010

I had a piece featured on the ESPN Blog “TMI” – their new sabermetrics-based blog for insiders. The piece, on Jake Peavy’s struggles with the White Sox can be seen here if you’re an ESPN Insider.

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Now What? Solving The Bullpen Issues

By Jack Moore on April 29, 2010

Trevor Hoffman blew another save on Tuesday, and again it was via the home run. That makes 4 blown saves in 7 opportunities and 6 homers in 9 innings. Normally, I wouldn’t be ready to call a pitcher done after such a small sample. However, Hoffman is a 42 year old soft-tossing pitcher who also had major home run issues in 2008 and had an insane amount of luck in 2009. If anything screams attrition, it’s that profile.

I don’t expect Macha and Melvin to take Trevor out of the closer role yet. However, let’s consider the following situation – an “injury” to Hoffman is found, and he’s forced to head to the 15-Day DL. That leaves the Brewers with an available roster spot and an opening at the closer position.

First off, the easy part: call up Zach Braddock to fill the open roster spot. After posting a 2.10 FIP between A+ Brevard County and AA Huntsville – including 62 strikeouts in just 40.1 innings – Braddock has opened the 2010 season in Nashville with a 0.00 ERA in 9.2 innings, along with 17 strikeouts and only 2 walks. Braddock is a left hander, but he has closer-quality stuff and would be able to get batters of either hand out.

As for who should take over the reins in the closer role, I have two possible solutions. The first is to move Carlos Villanueva to that role. He’s performed excellently so far this season – 11+ K/9 and a crazy 52% ground ball percentage are closer-type numbers. He’s just been much, much better as a reliever than a starter – more than the typical starter-turned-reliever – his K/9 is nearly 3 higher as a reliever and his HR rate drops significantly in the role.

Still, a HR rate of about 1 per 9 innings is still a little bit high for a closer. That brings us to the other option – Manny Parra. Yes, Todd Coffey and LaTroy Hawkins are hard throwers, but they haven’t historically shown the stuff to limit homers or get lefties out. Parra’s numbers project extremely well as a reliever – high-walk pitchers can survive in a starter role as long as they limit home runs and strike batters out, due to the nature of single-inning outings. Parra is also pitching extremely well this season – he took a 0.00 ERA and 1.92 FIP into Wednesday’s relief appearance, and even though he received the loss, he compiled another 4 strikeouts and only allowed one walk. The only disconcerting part of his appearance were 6 balls hit in the air, but that includes the double play off of the bat of Lastings Milledge and some very weakly hit fly balls.

Both Parra and Villanueva have pitched excellently this season and are my leading candidates for the next closer of the Milwaukee Brewers. Of course, this precludes the possibility of Trevor Hoffman returning to form – we can’t ignore this possibility. However, Hoffman’s 3.52 FIP and 4.12 xFIP since 2007 are not the kind of elite numbers that would preclude a change. Given how well the teams in the NL West are performing, the Wild Card could require 88-92 wins this season, if not more. The season needs to turn around now, and solving the bullpen issues are merely the first step.

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Best Wishes To Bob Uecker

By Jack Moore on April 28, 2010

Bob Uecker will be unable to announce for 10-12 weeks as he will undergo heart surgery on Friday. Mr. Baseball has touched so many lives around the Milwaukee area and beyond, and I wish him a speedy recovery. You can leave a message for Uecker here, courtesy of Fox 6 Milwaukee.

Get well soon, Bob. We’ll miss you.

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Pirates 7, BREWERS 3: Trevor Time

By Jack Moore on April 28, 2010

Game20

It’s time to talk about Trevor. Hoffman blew his 3rd save in 6 chances in this game. I don’t know if you’re familiar with the save statistic – these advanced stats confuse us all at times – but that’s not good. Hoffman saved 37 of 41 saves last season – what has changed?

The simple answer is that Hoffman is giving up a ton of home runs. Last season, Hoffman only gave up two home runs the whole year. With the two he gave up against the Pirates on Tuesday night, Hoffman’s 2010 home run total is already up to 5. Hoffman allowed three fly balls in that appearance, pushing his HR/FB total up to 20.8% – a ridiculously high number for a pitcher. For reference, Braden Looper led all starters with a roughly 15% HR/FB rate last season – and he was easily the worst in the league at preventing home runs.

There have been a few noticeable changes in some statistics pertaining to plate discipline, and all of them are disconcerting. First of all, Hoffman has been unable to draw swings on pitches out of the zone. Over the course of his career, hitters have chased 25% of his pitches out of the strike zone, and he had that exact mark in 2009. Now, hitters are only chasing 16% of these pitches. More alarming, though, is the ridiculously 5.4% swinging strike rate he’s inducing. Swinging strike rates correlate very highly with strikeouts, as might be expected. His 5.4% rate is roughly half of the reliever average.

There is, of course, still the question of why his performance has declined. The popular answer appears to be Hoffman’s lower changeup use. The changeup has been his most effective pitch for his career, and he’s used it quite often – 29% for his career, and his 29.9% changeup rate was 7th highest among relievers with at least 50 IP.

According to FanGraphs’ Pitch Values, both Hoffman’s fastball and changeup have been well above average since 2002. However, this season, both pitches have been below average. Hoffman clearly didn’t feel that the changeup was working on Tuesday, as he only used it 3 times in 20 non-intentional walk pitches.

In fact, overall, Hoffman’s changeup usage is down to 17.4%. The only way for Hoffman to be effective is to get his changeup working again – he has no other secondary pitch. He throws a slider 9% of the time and a curveball 3% of the time, and the slider is roughly average and the curveball is awful. For the Brewers’ sake, he better figure it out, and fast. Every loss in April is another one that the Brewers have to make up in August and September.

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BREWERS 17, Pirates 3: Just How Ridiculous

By Jack Moore on April 27, 2010

Game19

I think it’s now safe to say that the Brewers-Pirates series in 2010 defies logic. Yes, the Brewers are certainly a better team than the Pirates, but let’s explore just how ridiculous it is for a team to get outscored by 49 runs in 4 games.

First of all, let’s look at Pythagorean winning percentage.
pythag

Given that the Brewers have scored 53 runs and only allowed 4, that gives a pythagorean win percentage of .994. It’s probably unsurprising, but teams that score 53 runs and only allow 4 are expected to win 99.4% of the time.

Obviously, this doesn’t represent the true talent of the two teams. Even the best teams of all time have only won 75% of their games, and the worst teams (of the modern era) have all won at least 23.5%. Let’s take a look at this ridiculous series of games through the lens of a tool called the log5 method.

The log5 method was developed by Bill James as a tool to determine the probably that team A beats team B based on their win percentage – whether that’s from standings, from pythagorean record, or from some other measure. Here is the formula:

A - A * B
WPct = ----------------------------------
A + B - 2 * A * B

Even if the Pirates are an exactly replacement level team – a .280 winning percentage – a .750 winning percentage team would only be expected to win 88% of their games. Only a team expected to win 98.5% of its games – 159.5 of 162 – would be expected to win 99.4% of its games against a replacement level team – and I think the Pirates are much better than replacement level, as a replacement level team would only win 48 games, and this Pirate team should be able to win 65-70 at least.

That means that the Brewers have played like a team that is at least 151 wins above replacement against the Pirates. That’s roughly 86 WAR out of the lineup, or 9 Albert Pujolses. That’s another 65 out of the 4 starting pitchers and the bullpen – 4 Zack Greinkes and 6 Mariano Riveras comes out to about 66 WAR even in their best seasons.

There’s no other way to put it – this stretch Milwaukee has put together against the Pirates is ridiculous.

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What Howard’s Deal Means For Prince

By Jack Moore on April 26, 2010

In case you haven’t yet heard, Philadelphia Phillies slugger Ryan Howard signed a 5 year, $125 million contract that will begin in 2012, carrying through 2016, including an utterly ridiculous $10 million buyout on a $23 million option for 2017. Those will be Howard’s age 32-36 seasons.

This is a bad deal for many reasons, mostly that Howard is already ridiculously overrated at this point. However, I would like to take a look at this deal from a Brewers perspective. More specifically, that means how this deal affects Prince Fielder‘s future contract negotiations.

Fielder has been and always will be compared to Ryan Howard – they’re both high power, poor defending, superstar-type first basemen. Both of them will belong in a DH role soon, if they don’t already. Both of them have 50 HR power. Prince, however, hasn’t won an MVP award or any championships, and that is probably what accounts for his slightly lower arbitration awards (6.5M and 10M in first two years vs. 10M and 15M for Howard). However, Fielder is 4.5 years younger than Howard, and that should be key in contract negotiations.

At age 30, Howard is likely already past his peak. His top three similar batters through age 29 are Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, and Mo Vaughn. All were ineffective by age 33 and out of baseball by age 35. Fielder will turn 26 this season – his top similar batters through age 25 are Juan Gonzalez, Eddie Murray, and Jim Rice. All were excellent hitters through at least age 32.

Due to his age, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Prince receive a contract that approaches or eclipses that of Ryan Howard’s. Prince is not worth that kind of money. Even if we’re generous and claim that teams are paying $4 million dollars for one Win Above Replacement (it’s more like $3.5M), Prince is worth about $21 million dollars right now. Given that his fielding will likely decline and is already poor (-6.2 UZR/150, -7 +/- per year last 3 years), Prince’s value is probably that of a 5.5 win player at the most.

Even if he doesn’t decline over the life of a 5-year contract and we don’t account for any lost time due to injury or attrition or anything, that puts Prince’s value at around $110 million over 5 years. Prince will likely receive a longer contract with much more guaranteed money.

With Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo already locked up, there likely just simply isn’t enough money around to re-sign Prince. Even if there was, he probably isn’t worth it. It’s going to hurt, but the Brewers should just take the massive trade haul Prince brings next offseason or next July (or possibly even this July) and move on. He’s not worth the money. It’s not because Milwaukee is a small market team. It’s because Prince’s production won’t match up with the contract.

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Suppan To Pen, Narveson To Rotation

By Jack Moore on April 26, 2010

Despite the loss to the Cubs, the Brewers moved a little bit closer to the playoffs yesterday. The team announced that Jeff Suppan will no longer be in the starting rotation – very good news, as he was at best the 7th best option on the team. His 8.68 ERA and 6.89 FIP will not be missed. Unfortunately, management has decided to go with the 6th best option in the 5th starting rotation spot: Chris Narveson.

On the plus side, Narveson is almost certainly a better starting pitcher than Suppan. Entering the season, ZiPS, CHONE, and Marcel were all in agreement, projecting a 5.22-5.26 FIP for the aging starter. That’s slightly above replacement level – a definite improvement over last season – but still extremely poor. If anything, the performance we’ve seen from Suppan this spring and early summer have suggested that he is worse than that.

The projections for Narveson are a bit tricky, due to his mixed role as a starter an a reliever. Relievers typically perform anywhere from 0.7 to 1.0 runs better in relief than they do as a starter – that is, a 5.00 ERA starter will probably perform in the 4.00-4.30 range as a reliever, and vice-versa. Narveson is projected at a 4.13 FIP by CHONE and a 4.68 FIP by ZiPS. CHONE is projecting Narveson as a reliever, but due to his experience as a starter and his repertoire, I believe the lower 0.7 run penalty is applicable here. That would project Narveson as a roughly 4.90 FIP pitcher, above replacement level but also well below average. Most importantly, that is a marked improvement over Suppan.

ZiPS is in agreement – it’s projection has Narveson making 14 starts and 19 relief appearances. At least 70% of his projected 104.1 IP would likely be in a starting role in that scenario, and so we only apply 30% of the 0.7 run “starting penalty” to his reliever numbers. Again, we get a roughly 4.90 FIP. Over 100 innings, this 0.3 run difference in ERA is worth roughly 3 runs, or 0.3 wins. Given that Jeff Suppan is likely even worse than his projection at this point, the gain from this move is likely greater than that.

As I mentioned above, Narveson is probably the 6th best SP on the team right now. The 5th (possibly even 4th) will remain in the bullpen as a result of this move. I am referring to Manny Parra, who, according to Adam McCalvy, will remain in the bullpen partly due to how good he has looked as a reliever.

Before I get into how ridiculous that statement is, let’s take a look at what we could expect out of Manny in a starting role. First of all, Parra’s 4.88 FIP last season – among the starting rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, and Looper, that number ranks second. His lack of success was greatly exaggerated and was largely a product of extremely poor luck – his 64.7% left on base percentage was roughly 7% below the league average, and that’s a number that is typically out of the pitcher’s control.

Parra is projected to put up decent numbers by CHONE, Marcel, and ZiPS. All three of them project Parra in the 4.30-4.50 FIP range. Why do they project Parra as so much better than Narveson? Unlike Narveson, Parra actually has major league stuff – his strikeout rates as a starter a projected to be roughly equal to those projected for Narveson as a reliever. Parra also does a better job of keeping the ball on the ground -his ground ball rates the last two seasons have hovered near the 50% mark, whereas Narveson is historically a heavy fly ball pitcher.

The difference between Parra and Narveson as a starter is about half a run per 9 innings, or about half a win per 100 innings. It seems clear to me that Parra should be given the chance – Narveson is a mediocre pitcher with mediocre stuff. Parra has had mediocre results in his career, but has had demonstrably poor luck and has demonstrably better stuff than Narveson.

Regardless, Parra will remain in the bullpen. As McCalvy mentioned, he has been effective – obviously, as he hasn’t allowed a run yet. If that is truly the reason that Parra is not moving to the rotation, Ken Macha must start using him in important situation. Currently, Parra has an inLI – Leverage Index at the start of innings in which he has pitched – of 0.22. That’s ridiculously low – the average situation has a Leverage Index of 1.00, the typical setup man situation is 1.30, and the typical closer situation is about 2.00. Basically, Parra has only seen action in which the game has been out of hand.

If the Brewers are truly happy with Parra’s performance out of the pen, he should start seeing action in some important situations. He is now the only left hander in the bullpen, and should see action in tight situations against left handed batters. Because of his changeup, he won’t need to be removed from the game against right handed batters either. Parra’s 4.30-4.50 FIP as a starter suggests a sub-4.00 FIP as a reliever, which would make him a great option against lefties and a good option against righties.

This move is a positive, make no mistake – the starting rotation is improved with Narveson in over Suppan. It’s simply disappointing to me that one of the Brewers most talented pitchers is being forced to waste away in the bullpen. If the Brewers wish to make the postseason this year, they will need to maximize their resources. They’re closer now than they were last week, but this still isn’t the best team that the Brewers can put on the field.

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Cubs 12, BREWERS 2: Back To Reality

By Jack Moore on April 25, 2010

Game18

Dave Bush’s 2010 line, prior to this start:
18.2 IP, 14 H, 5 ER, 10 K, 6 BB 2 HR
.220 BABIP, 2.41 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 4.31 xFIP

Dave Bush’s career stats:
.290 BABIP, 4.64 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 4.37 xFIP

Dave Bush’s current 2010 line:
21.1 IP, 24 H, 12 ER, 12 K, 8 BB, 6 HR
.343 BABIP, 5.06 ERA

In sabermetrics, the concept of regression to the mean is very important – central, in fact. Wikipedia:

In statistics, regression toward the mean refers to the phenomenon that a variable that is extreme on its first measurement will tend to be closer to the centre of the distribution on a later measurement. To avoid making wrong inferences, the possibility of regression toward the mean must be considered when designing experiments and interpreting experimental, survey, and other empirical data in the physical, life, behavioral and social sciences.

In the context of baseball, and in particular this start, that means that we should expect a player to perform at his career levels as opposed to the levels established in a small sample, such as Dave Bush’s first start. Today was a great example of regression toward the mean – Bush’s stuff simply isn’t the kind of stuff that will play at a 2.41 ERA level, and this start has brought his 2010 numbers closer to his career mean.

At the same time, though, this start is no reason to freak out. Bush has had problems with the home run ball in the past, and occasionally will suffer games like today’s in which he can’t keep the ball on the ground. It’s disappointing that it had to come against the Cubs, but sometimes these things are unavoidable.

Dave Bush is not the 2.41 ERA pitcher that started the year. He’s not nearly as bad as today’s game suggests. What Dave Bush is hasn’t changed since last year – a slightly below average starting pitcher. Today simply wasn’t his day, but it should come as no surprise that he will no longer carry a sparlky sub-3.00 ERA into his starts.

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