I feel as if this play from yesterday’s game against the Reds is the Brewers play of the year and should be in the running for best play of the year in baseball. In case the amount of ground that Cain had to cover doesn’t impress you from the video, take a look at this screengrab:

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If people weren’t appreciating Cain’s defense prior to this ridiculous catch combined with his dart to throw out a tagging Jay Bruce at second base, they should be now. Cain had the #9 and #2 plays on the ESPN top 10, and it’s not as though making solid defensive plays is any sort of new territory for the rookie. According to the FSN announcing crew, managers and players around the league have been raving about Cain, and his work in the outfield in particular, as he’s shown fantastic range ever since getting the call from the minors.

Right now, Cain is tearing the cover off of the ball, both in the sense of his solid .343 wOBA and in the sense of an insane 26.9% LD rate. Cain definitely profiles as a player who should typically have a high BABIP – say, .320-.330 – but expecting him to maintain a .364 BABIP would be unrealistic. As that falls off, Cain’s batting will probably hover around average, with the potential to be above average if he develops some power – something I wouldn’t hold my breath for, as Cain only hit 23 home runs in the minor leagues since 2006.

That said, take a roughly average or even slightly below average hitter with good defense in center field, and you’re looking at a 3+ WAR player with room to grow. Lorenzo Cain looks to be a huge asset for the Brewers in 2011 and beyond, and his skillset – his defense in particular – are just one of the reasons to be optimistic for the upcoming seasons.

There’s no doubt that Randy Wolf hasn’t been the player that Doug Melvin and the Milwaukee Brewers thought they were getting this season. Wolf earned his 3 year, $30 million contract with above average strikeout ability, average walk prevention, and a roughly average ground ball rate. Those skills combined to make ERAs and FIPs around 4.00, and even in some shortened seasons, Wolf had averaged 2.2 WAR per season from 2007-2009.

Instead, the Brewers have gotten all of 0.1 WAR out of Wolf. His strikeout rate has dipped below six per nine innings and the walk rate has climbed near four per nine. The home run rate is up as well, but that’s not terribly surprising given his move from Dodger Stadium to Miller Park, a much more homer-friendly ballpark. Bad things happen when walks go up and when strikeouts go down, and this confluence of both has effectively raised Wolf’s ERA, FIP and xFIP by a run or more.

Wolf has been more of his pre-2010 self in the last two months. His K/9 is up to 6.9 since July and, probably more importantly for a guy with Wolf’s stuff, his BB/9 is down to 3.0. As a result, Wolf has a 4.51 xFIP and a 4.02 FIP over these two months. The xFIP suggests that Wolf may not be back to the level that earned him his big contract, but both numbers indicate that Wolf should be able to contribute for the Brewers for the rest of 2010 and into 2011.

Of course, you can’t make too much from only two months of data. However, there are indicators that Wolf should be able to maintain this performance. First of all, Wolf’s fastball velocity is starting to approach the 89 MPH average it was at in Los Angeles last season.

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The data at FanGraphs has Wolf as throwing a two-seam fastball nearly 30% of the time, but I suspect that may simply be a misclassification of his fastball. You can see the rise in velocity a bit better on this pitch.

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Secondly, the sheer fact that Wolf has had past success is a good indicator of future success. ZiPS projects a 4.58 FIP going forward, which isn’t good but would certainly provide some value over a full season, and CHONE projects a similar 4.65 ERA. If the early dip in Wolf’s velocity was the cause of even some of his early season struggles, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect Wolf to beat these projections, if only slightly.

The Wolf contract is very likely to end up as a net loss for the Brewers, but that doesn’t mean that it is a lost cause like the Jeff Suppan contract the last two years. Instead, Wolf should be able to contribute for the remainder of the contract, particularly if he can sustain his performance over the past two months.

Thanks to the early injury suffered by Gregg Zaun – remember him? – Jon Lucroy was forced into duty about a year earlier than most expected him. Lucroy had put up solid numbers all the way from the Rookie Leagues through AA, and after Zaun’s injury, the Brewers felt comfortable installing Lucroy as the starting catcher at the young age of 24.

A big part of the reason that Lucroy is ready for the majors despite skipping AAA is his advanced defense. Lucroy probably isn’t an elite or even a great defensive catcher, but he’s shown a decent throwing arm, catching 28% of stolen base attempts. The average defensive catcher is an extremely valuable commodity, and Lucroy is looking like his defense is average to slightly above average.

To date, Jon Lucroy has a .266/.307/.351 line that really can only be described as Kendallian. Lucroy’s 81 wRC+ is right in line with the 78 and 75 wRC+ marks posted by Jason Kendall in 2007 and 2008. Right now, Lucroy’s hitting lines compare most favorably with Carlos Gomez and Alcides Escobar – not exactly great company.

Lucroy has shown good contact skills, only striking out in 15% of plate appearances, and his BABIP of .303 is basically average. The problem is that Lucroy has shown very little power and poor plate discipline. Lucroy was never a huge power threat, but he did hit 20 HRs in 2008 and 11 in 2009. The three HRs Lucroy has in 199 plate appearances is roughly in line with that 2009 mark; either way, we typically don’t learn much about a player’s power in a short season. Lucroy will probably never have above average MLB power – his swing doesn’t exactly strike me as a power stroke – but it’s far too early to say that he’ll be a singles hitter as he has been this season.

The lack of walks is far more disconcerting. Lucroy has only walked in 5% of plate appearances after walking 10% of the time in 2008 and 15% in 2009. The low walk rate makes some sense, given that Lucroy has swung at an unfathomable 40.2% of pitches out of the strike zone according to FanGraphs. That’s not quite Vlad Guerrero (46%) or Pablo Sandoval (43%) level, but it is near the top of the league. Lucroy ranks 14th in the league among players with at least 190 plate appearances, right between noted free swingers Alfonso Soriano and Yuniesky Betancourt. Soriano survives because he has crazy power, and Betancourt was the worst player in baseball in 2009. As discipline numbers tend to stabilize much quicker than power numbers, this is a legitimate concern for Lucroy.

Jon Lucroy is profiling as an average player right now: a poor hitter but a decent defensive catcher. That’s all well and good, and even at this point, we can be happy to have Jon Lucroy on the team for the foreseeable future. However, Lucroy won’t reach his full potential until he can learn to lay off some pitches out of the zone, as that should lead to both more walks and more power, as it’s just plain difficult to hit pitches out of the zone hard. Hopefully the Brewers coaches can recognize this and work to improve as the season winds down and as 2011 approaches, because thanks to his high ability to make contact, Lucroy should be able to hit at a solid level. It’s not there yet, but at age 24, Lucroy’s prime is yet to come.