A Quick Zack Greinke Comparison | Disciples of Uecker

Disciples of Uecker

We'd like to go to the Playoffs, that would be cool.

Consider, first, Zack Greinke’s statistics from his Cy Young Award-winning 2009 season.

229.1 IP, 64 R, 55 ER, 242 K, 51 BB, 11 HR, 2.16 ERA, 2.33 FIP

Amazing, right? It’s a wonder how even with “just” 16 victories there was ever any question he would win the award.C

Now, consider Greinke’s numbers in his last 16 starts last season, from July 8th through September 28th.

103.1 IP, 35 R, 30 ER, 112 K, 31 BB, 9 HR, 2.61 ERA, 2.96 FIP

Pro-rated over 162 games (34 starts), we get:

220 IP, 75 R, 64 ER, 238 K, 66 BB, 20 HR, 2.61 ERA, 2.96 FIP.

There has been some accusations that Zack Greinke has not pitched at an elite level since arrival in Milwaukee — from certain writers at this space, and from others. That simply isn’t true. Once the calendar flipped to July, Greinke went into full Ace mode. It wasn’t quite a CC Sabathia stretch (1.65 ERA, 2.44 FIP in 17 starts), but Greinke was utterly fantastic down the stretch and pitched as well nearly as well as anybody in baseball now is capable of. The home runs are worrying, yes. But Greinke was so good at every other part of the game for the latter half of last season that even if the home run issues remain, Zack Greinke can pitch at an elite level in 2012.

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Comments

Tell us what do you think.

  1. @THEKID_ says: April 5, 2012

    I am shocked….this article was not written by Breen. I thought he was the only one with a full fledged man-crush on Greinke.

  2. SecondHandStore says: April 5, 2012

    I have a man-crush on Greinke too. I’m not afraid to admit it. It’s somewhat surprising to me that when most people, professional and fan alike, talk about Greinke’s year last year, they fail to mention his missing a month with a broken rib. Yeah, his numbers look pretty average, but you have to ask yourself how much of that is due to missing time and trying to get back into game form, while pitching in actual major league games. Maybe we’ll find out this year. Either way, Greinke missed his potential last year and he pitched about as well as Gallardo. I want that guy on my team for years to come.

  3. Nicholas Zettel says: April 5, 2012

    Jack, I’d be interested to know you take on a couple of things:

    (1) How much weight do you attribute to Greinke’s mechanical shift in his 2011 turnaround?
    (2) How significant, over time, is consistently poor defensive support? Are some pitchers just “doomed” to unlucky support?

  4. Jack says: April 5, 2012

    (1) How much weight do you attribute to Greinke’s mechanical shift in his 2011 turnaround?
    >> Interesting you should notice this. By July, Greinke had lost 4kg from his injury-induced overweight condition. I suspect the 5kg he eventually lost had a significant effect on the mechanical shift in his delivery.

    (2) How significant, over time, is consistently poor defensive support? Are some pitchers just “doomed” to unlucky support?
    >> My analytics show 11-12% of a pitchers success rate revolves around defensive support–a minor but not insignificant factor. This will affect ERA very indirectly but more importantly can directly impact emotional attributes which may disrupt concentration and send a pitcher into a downward spiral. Of course, I am just making all this up.

    • Nicholas Zettel says: April 6, 2012

      Thanks, Jack! I didn’t know Greinke was overweight last year, to start the season. That would explain an awful lot, mechanically.

      I still wonder how consistently pitching in front of poor defenses affects that pitcher’s approach to pitching. Unfortunately, I have little to no idea of how to study that.

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