After discussing the possible outcomes of the 12th overall pick, let’s move on to handicapping the second pick that the Milwaukee Brewers have in the first round of today’s Major League amateur draft, the 15th overall.
The 15th overall pick
15% chance – Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River State JC (Florida): Spangenberg owns what is quite possibly the best hit tool in the draft and he is very fast. The bad news is that he may not have the arm to play 3B, though he is fast enough to play CF and his arm would be fringe-average there. I prefer him over Mahtook due to better pure hitting and the potential to stick in center, but the Brewers may disagree.
14% chance – Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon: This name keeps popping up in relation to the Brewers as we close in on the draft. Tall, solid velocity for a left-hander, and a great pickoff move. Makes sense for the Brewers, especially if they take a bat at 12.
13% chance – Javier Baez, SS, HS (Florida): The Brewers will likely only take Baez here if they nab Lindor or Gray at 12. He would have to slide past the Mets and Marlins at 13 and 14, which may be a dicey proposition.
12% chance – Mikie Mahtook, CF, LSU: Often connected to the Brewers with this pick, Mahtook might be too much of a signability risk for the team here. A solid player without one elite skill, Mahtook is probably destined for a corner outfield spot in pro ball.
11% chance – Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas: Jungmann has had a lot of success at Texas and possesses a high floor as a pro. The other side of that is his ceiling is that of a #3 starter (maybe pushing #2), and he’s been used a lot in college.
10% chance – George Springer, CF, Connecticut: If the Brewers opt for a pitcher with the 12th pick, they could get their toolsy position player here at the 15th pick with Springer and not have to worry as much about signability as they would with a high school athlete.
9% chance – Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt: Like Baez, if they take Gray here, it’s because they got someone they really, really like at #12. The Brewers would be thrilled with Gray at 15.
5% chance - Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, HS (South Carolina): Signability is an issue here that would not be as much of a factor at 12. I keep seeing his name here, but it just doesn’t make sense to me.
2% chance – C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah: The college hitter that may be closest to the big leagues, Cron is a big masher who may or may not be able to play in the field at the Major League level.
2% chance – Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky: Huge pitcher with huge velocity and huge upside. With huge upside, you also get huge downside and the Brewers have had little success with these guys. A “hope for the best” pick if they take him.
2% chance – Matt Barnes, RHP, Connecticut: If Barnes falls this far, he could provide good value to the Brewers at the 15th pick. Solid, unexciting pick.
2% chance – Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech: See: Barnes, Matt.
2% chance – Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii: The Brewers followed Wong quite a bit earlier in the summer, but things seem to have cooled off. Still has a shot to be picked if the Brewers think he switch to catcher or CF. One of the best hitters in the draft, though a few ticks behind Spangenberg.
Less than 1% chance – Francisco Lindor, SS, HS (Florida); Jose Fernandez, RHP, HS (Florida); Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina; Daniel Norris, LHP, HS (Tennessee); Trevor Story, SS, HS (Texas); Joe Ross, RHP, HS (California); Andrew Susac, C, Oregon State; Brian Goodwin, CF, Miami-Dade JC (Florida); Josh Osich, LHP, Oregon State