Brewers Agree To Terms With Norichika Aoki

By Jack Moore on January 17, 2012

Such is the nature of deadlines: when one exists, it will be pushed to the limit.

The Brewers deadline to negotiate with Norichika Aoki was no different. The Brewers had until 4:00 PM Tuesday afternoon to sign the Japanese outfielder to a contract after winning the rights for a $2.5 million posting fee one month ago. At 4:39 PM, MLB.com beat writer Adam McCalvy (among others) reported that Aoki and the Brewers have agreed to a two-year contract with a club option for a third year.

No more details are available as of yet.

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TMZ: Ryan Braun’s Positive Test Due To Medication

By Jack Moore on December 19, 2011

The first major report since the original flurry of news surrounding Ryan Braun’s positive test has surfaced, this time from TMZ of all sources. The report is thin on the details, but according to a source “directly connected with Major League Baseball,” Braun’s positive test was not for a steroid or other performance enhancing drug, but instead for a medication for a “private medical issue.”

Unfortunately for Braun and the Brewers, Major League Baseball tends not to care what triggers the positive test. The sport generally has a zero-tolerance policy with these tests, and even if it comes out that Braun’s test was for a perfectly legitimate medical issue, the fact that he did not have an exemption (and he doesn’t for anything, as far as any reports so far indicate) will likely result in a 25-game suspension (for a “stimulant,” as was the case with Mike Cameron) or a 50-game suspension (as is the norm for PED-related cases, or the Manny Ramirez case, which involved fertility drugs).

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Prince Fielder’s Homer Remains 2011′s Longest

By Jack Moore on September 13, 2011

Juan Francisco hit one of the longest home runs I’ve ever seen at Great American Ballpark in Tuesday night’s game against the Chicago Cubs. It was majestic. It was mammoth. It was a moonshot. Insert your own adjective beginning with M here, at least as soon as you watch Francisco (a Carson Cistulli favorite) unload on this ball.

The Reds had that shot estimated at over 500 feet, which would have made it the first home run of the 2011 season to eclipse the 500 foot mark. More importantly, it would have usurped Prince Fielder’s spot at the top of the ESPN Hit Tracker leaderboard for this majestic blast off Brett Myers earlier this year in Houston:

Yeah. That’s a moonshot. Get out of here, Juan Francisco. Your paltry 482 foot home run doesn’t even compare to the majesty of the Prince. And although there’s still about 20 days to go in the regular season, it looks like that mammoth homer will last as the longest in the majors this year.

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Managing Expectations (An Introduction)

By Tim Schaefer on August 17, 2011

The Brewers look odds on to win the Central Division this year –barring some awful Yostian collapse—and I can’t help but feel, well, odd about the whole thing.

As a matter of introduction, I’ve been a Brewers fan my whole life, or thereabouts.  My dad and I have gone to something like 200 games together, and left something like 100 of them early.  (We are both anxious, maybe get more emotionally involved than we should, and like to cut our losses.  Don’t judge.)

I’m quite used to the Crew melting down or straight up dissolving well before fall.  In fact, that turn of events feels comfortable, like a well-worn winter jacket.  Also, that jacket has a bunch of holes and the stuffing is falling out.  And it has the 1994-1999 logo on the back.  And the logo is peeling off.

So this feels great, even exhilarating at times, but it makes me more than a little uncomfortable.  The 2008 run was marred, tragically I think, by the aforementioned September collapse.  CC and company clawed their way into the playoffs; sure it was on the back of a beautiful win over the Cubs, but in retrospect the Phillies were a brick wall and the Brewers were… I dunno, a snow ball.  Or a cream puff!  That’s sorta topical.

It’s easy to forget how much better this team is, even if we’re stuck with a McGehee/Betancourt sieve factory between 2nd and 3rd, and stuck watching Yuni occasionally golf for balls that are down by his ankles.  Sure, the team’s WAR isn’t off-the charts-great, but it wasn’t off-the-charts great in 2008 or 2009 either.  I think this season has shown pretty clearly that solid, Bush-free and Suppan-free starting pitching with shutdown relief can make up for a merely really good lineup.

Plus, Rickie Weeks is currently worth about as much as Albert Pujols.  Objectively.  Assuming you remove the value of the bike chains Mr. Tradition wears around his neck.

So yeah, the Phillies are still scary, the Braves will be tough to beat even with home field advantage, and the Cardinals are far from out of it.  That’s going to be in the back of my head even if the Brewlots (as my pops likes to call them… Brewers plus Pilots.  Get it?  Eh?) cruise to their first division title since, um, before I was born.

But there’s something to be said for momentum, something the team seemed to lack late in 2008.  I think they have a shot against anyone this year.  Whatever happens, they’ve been fantastic to watch lately, and I’ll be well satisfied to watch them win something, even if it’s just the division.

Also, I can’t remember the last time I left a game early.  So there’s that.

 

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Narveson Gets Cut… on the Finger; Frankie de la Cruz Promoted

By Toby Harrmann on August 11, 2011

Matt Wise can start resting a little bit easier now: he is no longer the most recent Brewers pitcher to injure himself on a metal utility object.

Chris Narveson can handle salad tongs well enough, but a pair of scissors meant to help fix the laces of his pitching glove cut the thumb of his pitching hand during Tuesday night’s game. The wound was deep enough to require eight stitches, forcing the Brewers to place Narveson on the disabled list while the laceration heals.

Replacing Narveson on the roster, but not in the rotation, is right-hander Eulogio “Frankie” de la Cruz. I profiled de la Cruz in June, pegging him as the Brewers’ second backup starting pitcher. He throws a hard fastball in the mid-90′s, along with a solid change-up and an occasional breaking ball. The 27 year old is currently #21 on Brewerfan’s Power 50 prospect list. Though he’s stretched out as a starter, he will go to the Brewers’ bullpen for now.

Replacing Narvseon in the rotation, at least for his next start, is Marco Estrada. Estrada has already filled in the rotation once this year, making four starts early this season in place of an injured Zack Greinke. However, since his last start on May 4th, Estrada has only thrown more than 50 pitches only twice. The Brewers readily admit that they’d be happy with Estrada making it through five innings.

Estrada’s next start will come either Friday or Saturday against the Pirates. Manager Ron Roenicke said that Zack Greinke, the scheduled starter for Saturday, may be bumped up to Friday night to give Estrada another day to prepare. The Brewers prefer using Estrada over de la Cruz due to Estrada’s greater experience at the big league level.

If Narveson is placed on the disabled list retroactive to the day after his start last Saturday, he would be eligible to return on August 22nd. The Brewers play the Pirates in a double-header that day.

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A Brief Brewers Baserunning Update Again

By Toby Harrmann on August 10, 2011

The original version of this story appeared on my Tumblr blog last week. Since like 8 people read that, Jack said I could post the genius here too. Statistics have been updated for this edition.

If you recall, I made my initial foray into Brewers blogging way back when (er, in late May) with a piece on baserunning. I promised I’d update it later in the season. It’s later. Let’s update it.

UBR, as you will recall, is FanGraphs’ way of measuring the effect of the running game sans stolen base data. RAR stands for “runs above replacement” and 10 RAR is theoretically equal to 1 extra win above replacement, or WAR.

  • In May, the Brewers’ UBR was -2.8 RAR. Fifth worst in MLB, third worst in the NL.
  • Now, the Brewers’ UBR is -4.9 RAR. That’s sixth worst in MLB, still third worst in the NL.

The running game (again, sans stolen base stuff) has basically treaded water in the depths of majors.

On to stolen bases.

  • In May, the Brewers’ stolen base success rate was 80% and worth about 2 RAR.
  • Now, the Brewers’ stolen base success rate is 75% and worth about 2.2 RAR.

Adding them together:

  • In May, the Brewers’ UBR+SB was -0.8 RAR, a loss of a little less than a tenth of a win.
  • Now, the Brewers’ UBR+SB is -2.7 RAR, a little more than a quarter of a loss.

Small ball, right?

As was the case in May, the two people primarily responsible for the team’s poor showing in UBR are Prince Fielder and Casey McGehee. Back then their UBRs were worth -6 RAR, and now they’ve slipped to -9.6 RAR, almost a full win below replacement. Add in McGehee’s two caught stealings (Fielder has not attempted a stolen base this year), and the RAR between those two slips to -10.5, more than a win below replacement.

The good news you can take out of that is the rest of the team has been pretty successful in the baserunning department, with an aggregate UBR+SB of 7.3 RAR. That would be good enough to land in the top five teams in MLB.

As I mentioned, baserunning is not a huge component of value in baseball. Where its marginal difference can matter is in tight races, where one team strongly outperforms the other. It’s unlikely, though possible, that baserunning will tip the balance in the NL Central this year.

  • The Cardinals’ UBR+SB is currently -1.6 RAR. It is negative due to a poor stolen base success rate. About a run better than the Brewers, one tenth of a win. They have a 3.9 RAR in UBR alone.
  • The Reds’ UBR+SB is currently 7.6 RAR, which is 10.3 RAR better than the Brewers. A full win and then some. The Reds, like the Cardinals, have their UBR dragged down by a poor showing in the stolen base department. They have a 11.6 RAR in UBR alone.

If you’re interested, the Brewers’ team sorted by UBR (called Bsr for some reason) for everyone that has a UBR value:

Two last things I want to point out. When I say “x has 3.4 RAR,” these are all best guesses of value by the people who put the statistic together. It’s impossible to know the true value of these things. This is just the best (public) stuff we have to work with.

Finally, the stolen base RAR calculation I used (.19 runs for a SB, -.46 runs for a CS) is from Tom Tango, but using data from the 1999-2002 seasons. The data may well be different for 2011 baseball, so those run values may be slightly off. A cursory search for that data came up dry for me. I doubt the RAR calculations are way off, but if they are, mea culpa.

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Brewers Acquire Jerry Hairston Jr.

By Jack Moore on July 30, 2011

The Brewers weren’t done upgrading their infield depth with the trade for Felipe Lopez. Doug Melvin struck again Saturday morning, this time dealing for uber-utility man Jerry Hairston from the Washington Nationals. In return, the Brewers sent 23-year-old Double-A outfielder Erik Komatsu back to the Nationals.

Hairston has incredible versatility, recording at least 70 career games at every position on the field except for first base, pitcher, and catcher. For the most part, he has a good defensive reputation everywhere he goes, and the defensive metrics at FanGraphs find him to be average or slightly above most everywhere he’s played on aggregate.

His bat should be useful as well. Hairston managed a .268/.342/.385 line with the Nationals, just above the league average when adjusted for park (102 wRC+). Although he’ll probably regress a bit, given his relative struggles the last two seasons (.710 OPS and .652 OPS respectively), his ability to get on base should prevent the lineup from turning to molasses after the top four or five hitters. ZiPS projects a very respectable .270/.333/.410 line down the stretch, with the extra power possible with his move from cavernous Nationals Park to the homer-friendly Miller Park.
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The cost for the Brewers was intriguing 23-year-old outfielder Erik Komatsu. Komatsu was the owner of a tremendous .393 on-base percentage at Double-A Huntsville, but he doesn’t offer much in terms of power, with a .416 SLG and only six home runs. Komatsu would be a very, very compelling prospect if he had the glove to play center field. Unfortunate, the all-but-universal consensus is that he will be limited to the corners, which not only vastly limits his major league usefulness, but also means he’s very much blocked in the Brewers organization. Obviously, there’s Ryan Braun and Corey Hart at the MLB level for the foreseeable future, but the organization also has two more advanced corner outfield prospects in Logan Schafer and Caleb Gindl. As Doug Melvin told Adam McCalvy:

“We like Eric, but we have Schafer and Gindl ahead of him, obviously, because they are at Triple-A,” Melvin said. “Schafer and Gindl have the ability to play center field, too. Erik is a good hitter, a compact swing, and we hate to give him up. But there’s a little bit of depth for us with having [Ryan] Braun and [Corey] Hart, still having Gomez and having Nyjer Morgan with us next year. We probably dealt from depth.

It’s difficult to argue with that. For the Nationals, the deal makes sense as Hairston is due to be a free agent at the end of the year and Komatsu has potential at the Major League level. For the Brewers, they dealt from a position of strength into a position of great weakness. Hairston is a pretty clear upgrade to the Major League club, and could add as much as a full win down the stretch, and maybe more if it means the end of Yuniesky Betancourt in the starting lineup.

Brett Carroll was designated for assignment to clear room for Hairston.

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Brewers Acquire Felipe Lopez From Rays

By Jack Moore on July 28, 2011

Although it didn’t result in a playoff appearance, Felipe Lopez was a very successful midseason acquisition for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2009. The switch-hitting infielder took over for an injured Rickie Weeks and posted a tremendous .320/.407/.448 triple-slash line in just under 300 plate appearances in the second half of the season.

With Rickie Weeks sidelined from two to six weeks with an ankle injury, the Brewers have called on Lopez again, acquiring him from the Rays for cash considerations. One would hardly imagine the 31-year-old Lopez can fill in so admirably in 2011, as he’s been languishing in Triple-A since a poor 100-plate appearance stint with Tampa Bay. Since his excellent 2009 season, things have been rough for Lopez: he’s posted a .230/.299/.340 triple-slash since 2010.

One will immediately notice that despite the unimpressive quality of Lopez’s recent performance, it’s still better than Yuniesky Betancourt (.251/.271/.368) and Casey McGehee (.230/.283/.320) entering Thursday’s game, and Lopez put together his offensive performances largely in pitchers’ parks (Busch Stadium and Tropicana Field). Craig Counsell‘s hitless streak sits at 41 at-bats as well. Lopez may not have much recent success offensively and he’s never had much of a glove, but it isn’t difficult to envision him as an upgrade over the current roster, whether it’s as a Weeks replacement at second or as a fill-in at third.

As Adam McCalvy reported, the Brewers don’t see Lopez as the ultimate panacea and will look to add even more infield help — after all, the Brewers already needed help in the infield even before Weeks went down. Lopez just adds some flexibility for the Brewers, both in solving the new problem at second base as well as the old one at third.

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Gomez Suffers Fractured Shoulder; Brett Carroll Up

By Jack Moore on July 21, 2011

Carlos Gomez was just being Carlos Gomez when he made a fantastic catch to save a run in the bottom of the fourth inning Wednesday night in Arizona, but it just may end his 2011 season. Gomez landed awkwardly on his left shoulder and suffered a fractured left clavicle. Depending on the severity, this injury just may end Gomez’s season.

Gomez takes a lot of flak for his approach at the plate, but he was just getting into a groove, with a respectable 89 wRC+ entering the game. Of course, defense is the name of the game for Gomez, and Carlos was in the midst of probably the best defensive season I’ve had the pleasure to watch. The numbers certainly agree — in just over a third of a season’s worth of innings, Gomez had compiled a +9 UZR and a staggering +17 DRS. And the highlights agree more.

The loss of Gomez should be mitigated a bit by the presence of plus defender Brett Carroll at AAA Nashville. With the Marlins, Carroll posted a +18 UZR/+24 DRS in 700 innings (a little under half a full season), mostly in right field. Carroll should be capable in center field, and his arm is one of the greatest in professional baseball according to some talent evaluators, but he likely won’t be able to completely replace Gomez.

Carroll’s bat in the majors has been poor, as he has a .205/.284/.320 triple-slash (AVG/OBP/SLG) line between parts of four seasons. That’s basically Gomez without power, although he has performed well in the minor leagues — a .281/.355/.474 triple-slash. However, in the PCL, that’s merely an average line. The best we can realistically expect out of Carroll is probably something like .235/.305/.350 — he’s clearly a defense-first player, much like Gomez.

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Francisco Rodriguez’s Vesting Option Becomes Mutual Option

By Jack Moore on July 15, 2011

First, around 4:15 PM central time, Ken Rosenthal reported, quite vaguely, that the Brewers no longer had to worry about Francisco Rodriguez’s vesting option:

#Brewers can now use K-Rod freely in closer’s role without fear of option vesting. Option is gone. Games finished clause is gone. #MLB

Now, through two tweets from around 5:00 PM, we now know just what Rosenthal means, and it’s great news for the Brewers:

Source: K-Rod vesting option now mutual option that kicks in with same 55 GF. It’s meaningless – he would decline and be FA. MORE #MLB

Buyout increases from $3.5M to $4M. That was the inducement. #Mets paying original buyout, #Brewers the additional amount. #MLB

For the meager price of $500,000, the Brewers have freed themselves from the worry of a $17.5 million dollar vesting option and can now use Francisco Rodriguez at the end of games if they so wish. This could mean Francisco Rodriguez moves into the closer’s role, but not necessarily. Instead, this just gives Ron Roenicke the flexibility to use John Axford or Francisco Rodriguez whenever the situation demands. Now, there doesn’t need to be a worry about an injury to Axford resulting in a $14 million cost, nor having to leave Rodriguez on the bench in a close extra-inning game towards the end of the year because the option is close to vesting. Instead, the Brewers can just decline their half of the option and be on their way next season.

It’s pretty amazing how this whole situation has just fallen into the Brewers lap. First, Rodriguez gets dumped by the Mets almost solely because of a mistake by his previous agent, and now he willingly rids the Brewers of the riskiest part of the acquisition. It’s hard to imagine the early days of the Francisco Rodriguez acquisition going any better for Doug Melvin.

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