Prince Fielder’s Homer Remains 2011′s Longest

By Jack Moore on September 13, 2011

Juan Francisco hit one of the longest home runs I’ve ever seen at Great American Ballpark in Tuesday night’s game against the Chicago Cubs. It was majestic. It was mammoth. It was a moonshot. Insert your own adjective beginning with M here, at least as soon as you watch Francisco (a Carson Cistulli favorite) unload on this ball.

The Reds had that shot estimated at over 500 feet, which would have made it the first home run of the 2011 season to eclipse the 500 foot mark. More importantly, it would have usurped Prince Fielder’s spot at the top of the ESPN Hit Tracker leaderboard for this majestic blast off Brett Myers earlier this year in Houston:

Yeah. That’s a moonshot. Get out of here, Juan Francisco. Your paltry 482 foot home run doesn’t even compare to the majesty of the Prince. And although there’s still about 20 days to go in the regular season, it looks like that mammoth homer will last as the longest in the majors this year.

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A Brief Brewers Baserunning Update Again

By Toby Harrmann on August 10, 2011

The original version of this story appeared on my Tumblr blog last week. Since like 8 people read that, Jack said I could post the genius here too. Statistics have been updated for this edition.

If you recall, I made my initial foray into Brewers blogging way back when (er, in late May) with a piece on baserunning. I promised I’d update it later in the season. It’s later. Let’s update it.

UBR, as you will recall, is FanGraphs’ way of measuring the effect of the running game sans stolen base data. RAR stands for “runs above replacement” and 10 RAR is theoretically equal to 1 extra win above replacement, or WAR.

  • In May, the Brewers’ UBR was -2.8 RAR. Fifth worst in MLB, third worst in the NL.
  • Now, the Brewers’ UBR is -4.9 RAR. That’s sixth worst in MLB, still third worst in the NL.

The running game (again, sans stolen base stuff) has basically treaded water in the depths of majors.

On to stolen bases.

  • In May, the Brewers’ stolen base success rate was 80% and worth about 2 RAR.
  • Now, the Brewers’ stolen base success rate is 75% and worth about 2.2 RAR.

Adding them together:

  • In May, the Brewers’ UBR+SB was -0.8 RAR, a loss of a little less than a tenth of a win.
  • Now, the Brewers’ UBR+SB is -2.7 RAR, a little more than a quarter of a loss.

Small ball, right?

As was the case in May, the two people primarily responsible for the team’s poor showing in UBR are Prince Fielder and Casey McGehee. Back then their UBRs were worth -6 RAR, and now they’ve slipped to -9.6 RAR, almost a full win below replacement. Add in McGehee’s two caught stealings (Fielder has not attempted a stolen base this year), and the RAR between those two slips to -10.5, more than a win below replacement.

The good news you can take out of that is the rest of the team has been pretty successful in the baserunning department, with an aggregate UBR+SB of 7.3 RAR. That would be good enough to land in the top five teams in MLB.

As I mentioned, baserunning is not a huge component of value in baseball. Where its marginal difference can matter is in tight races, where one team strongly outperforms the other. It’s unlikely, though possible, that baserunning will tip the balance in the NL Central this year.

  • The Cardinals’ UBR+SB is currently -1.6 RAR. It is negative due to a poor stolen base success rate. About a run better than the Brewers, one tenth of a win. They have a 3.9 RAR in UBR alone.
  • The Reds’ UBR+SB is currently 7.6 RAR, which is 10.3 RAR better than the Brewers. A full win and then some. The Reds, like the Cardinals, have their UBR dragged down by a poor showing in the stolen base department. They have a 11.6 RAR in UBR alone.

If you’re interested, the Brewers’ team sorted by UBR (called Bsr for some reason) for everyone that has a UBR value:

Two last things I want to point out. When I say “x has 3.4 RAR,” these are all best guesses of value by the people who put the statistic together. It’s impossible to know the true value of these things. This is just the best (public) stuff we have to work with.

Finally, the stolen base RAR calculation I used (.19 runs for a SB, -.46 runs for a CS) is from Tom Tango, but using data from the 1999-2002 seasons. The data may well be different for 2011 baseball, so those run values may be slightly off. A cursory search for that data came up dry for me. I doubt the RAR calculations are way off, but if they are, mea culpa.

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Brewers Acquire Jerry Hairston Jr.

By Jack Moore on July 30, 2011

The Brewers weren’t done upgrading their infield depth with the trade for Felipe Lopez. Doug Melvin struck again Saturday morning, this time dealing for uber-utility man Jerry Hairston from the Washington Nationals. In return, the Brewers sent 23-year-old Double-A outfielder Erik Komatsu back to the Nationals.

Hairston has incredible versatility, recording at least 70 career games at every position on the field except for first base, pitcher, and catcher. For the most part, he has a good defensive reputation everywhere he goes, and the defensive metrics at FanGraphs find him to be average or slightly above most everywhere he’s played on aggregate.

His bat should be useful as well. Hairston managed a .268/.342/.385 line with the Nationals, just above the league average when adjusted for park (102 wRC+). Although he’ll probably regress a bit, given his relative struggles the last two seasons (.710 OPS and .652 OPS respectively), his ability to get on base should prevent the lineup from turning to molasses after the top four or five hitters. ZiPS projects a very respectable .270/.333/.410 line down the stretch, with the extra power possible with his move from cavernous Nationals Park to the homer-friendly Miller Park.
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The cost for the Brewers was intriguing 23-year-old outfielder Erik Komatsu. Komatsu was the owner of a tremendous .393 on-base percentage at Double-A Huntsville, but he doesn’t offer much in terms of power, with a .416 SLG and only six home runs. Komatsu would be a very, very compelling prospect if he had the glove to play center field. Unfortunate, the all-but-universal consensus is that he will be limited to the corners, which not only vastly limits his major league usefulness, but also means he’s very much blocked in the Brewers organization. Obviously, there’s Ryan Braun and Corey Hart at the MLB level for the foreseeable future, but the organization also has two more advanced corner outfield prospects in Logan Schafer and Caleb Gindl. As Doug Melvin told Adam McCalvy:

“We like Eric, but we have Schafer and Gindl ahead of him, obviously, because they are at Triple-A,” Melvin said. “Schafer and Gindl have the ability to play center field, too. Erik is a good hitter, a compact swing, and we hate to give him up. But there’s a little bit of depth for us with having [Ryan] Braun and [Corey] Hart, still having Gomez and having Nyjer Morgan with us next year. We probably dealt from depth.

It’s difficult to argue with that. For the Nationals, the deal makes sense as Hairston is due to be a free agent at the end of the year and Komatsu has potential at the Major League level. For the Brewers, they dealt from a position of strength into a position of great weakness. Hairston is a pretty clear upgrade to the Major League club, and could add as much as a full win down the stretch, and maybe more if it means the end of Yuniesky Betancourt in the starting lineup.

Brett Carroll was designated for assignment to clear room for Hairston.

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Francisco Rodriguez’s Vesting Option Becomes Mutual Option

By Jack Moore on July 15, 2011

First, around 4:15 PM central time, Ken Rosenthal reported, quite vaguely, that the Brewers no longer had to worry about Francisco Rodriguez’s vesting option:

#Brewers can now use K-Rod freely in closer’s role without fear of option vesting. Option is gone. Games finished clause is gone. #MLB

Now, through two tweets from around 5:00 PM, we now know just what Rosenthal means, and it’s great news for the Brewers:

Source: K-Rod vesting option now mutual option that kicks in with same 55 GF. It’s meaningless – he would decline and be FA. MORE #MLB

Buyout increases from $3.5M to $4M. That was the inducement. #Mets paying original buyout, #Brewers the additional amount. #MLB

For the meager price of $500,000, the Brewers have freed themselves from the worry of a $17.5 million dollar vesting option and can now use Francisco Rodriguez at the end of games if they so wish. This could mean Francisco Rodriguez moves into the closer’s role, but not necessarily. Instead, this just gives Ron Roenicke the flexibility to use John Axford or Francisco Rodriguez whenever the situation demands. Now, there doesn’t need to be a worry about an injury to Axford resulting in a $14 million cost, nor having to leave Rodriguez on the bench in a close extra-inning game towards the end of the year because the option is close to vesting. Instead, the Brewers can just decline their half of the option and be on their way next season.

It’s pretty amazing how this whole situation has just fallen into the Brewers lap. First, Rodriguez gets dumped by the Mets almost solely because of a mistake by his previous agent, and now he willingly rids the Brewers of the riskiest part of the acquisition. It’s hard to imagine the early days of the Francisco Rodriguez acquisition going any better for Doug Melvin.

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Can We Believe In Casey McGehee Now?

By Jack Moore on July 6, 2011

Thinking back, it’s difficult to wrap my mind around just how poorly Casey McGehee’s season has gone. Sure, it’s been the biggest consistent issue with the team, and his numbers stick out like a broken thumb. Scrolling through his game log, there’s only been one stretch in which McGehee had anything close to consistent success, and that was an eight-game hitting streak in mid-June. Over that stretch, McGehee had a line of .281/.303/.375 — hardly any better before, and still devoid of any real power.

I think, then, we as fans can be forgiven for not expecting much out of Casey McGehee’s pinch-hit appearance in the seventh inning of Wednesday night’s game. Many expected the inning-ending, game-deflating double play; some optimists merely expected a strikeout. Especially after McGehee hit what looked a potential go-ahead double to the right field corner landed inches foul, it seemed like an out was inevitable. Except, as you most likely know, McGehee turned back the clock to May 20th and hit what turned out to be the game-winning three-run home run.

That’s right — McGehee’s home run was his first in a whopping 46 days. And that’s the real reason why so many, including myself, have been so reluctant to believe that McGehee can actually turn the corner. His power numbers were always the shakiest part of his unlikely rise to becoming a Major League starter — he hit all of 32 homers between 2006-2008 in the Cubs’ minor league system — and although power numbers aren’t terribly predictive early on, it was scary to see McGehee lose the ability to put the ball over the fence.

And don’t think Casey doesn’t understand this himself. For as flat as the call of the home run was on the MLB.com broadcast, they got it right with this quote: “If there was ever a player who needed something like that, in this kind of roll…” — and here’s where McGehee slams his helmet to the ground in some combination of frustration and joy and relief — “It’s that guy.”

Personally, I’m not fully read to believe yet. One home run is hardly anything in the long run, even though it meant everything on Tuesday. But there’s a glimmer of hope now, and at least McGehee is giving the optimist in me a reason to think good things can still happen at the plate when Casey is at the bat.

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Putting the Fielder Walkoff Win in Context

By Jordan Mader on May 21, 2011

Last night’s win was unbelievable in a lot of ways, and though it’s definitely getting way ahead of myself, I’m going to say anyways that it’s going to be one we look back at as a turning point, or a defining moment, or some cliche that announcers always throw around. Let’s continue to establish that it’s very early, but from purely a fan’s perspective, the difference between going into today’s game 1 under .500 and 3.5 games back of the Cardinals and the alternative– 3 under, 5.5 back– is huge. With 8 more home games in a row, maybe this team can really get on a roll it’s capable of.

The first bright spot from last night’s game may seem like an unlikely one, Zack Greinke. Last night’s line of 6 innings, 9 strikeouts/0 walks, 8 hits, and 4 runs is really a prime example of how a pitcher can do pretty much everything right and still give up runs. Make no mistake, if Greinke pitches like he did last night in every start, he’s going to be putting up a lot of 0s on the scoreboard. In his first 21 innings with the Brewers, he has 29 strikeouts and 2 walks. That’s so far beyond what I, or anyone, expected, and it works out to about 12.5 K/9 and under 1 BB/9 (which would be by far the best rates of his career). To translate that into FIP, it’s 2.91, and would be 1.47 with a normalized home run rate. 1.47! Greinke has given up an unhealthy amount of line drives so far, but there’s very little reason to expect that to continue. I’m as far from worried about Greinke as you can be for a pitcher with an ERA over 6. If he continues to pitch like this, it’s going to come down in a hurry. He could be on the poster for a BABIP Awareness poster at this point.

The bullpen came through last night in a very big way, throwing 5 scoreless innings between the 7th and 12th and before giving up a run in each of the 13th and 14th innings (though in the 14th, plenty of blame for the run goes to an error on Betancourt). This bullpen has performed far worse than expectations so far, and in this area too there’s reason for optimism. I projected Zach Braddock and Takashi Saito as the second and third best relievers on this team, and figured in Manny Parra for a prominent role as well. Braddock could be activated soon after a couple of rehab starts for the Timber Rattlers, in the first he struck out all 5 batters he faced and in the second he threw 3 scoreless innings. These three relievers should play a bigger role from here on out, hopefully replacing innings from lesser pitchers like Mitre and McClendon. The back of the bullpen should be a strength of this team, and last night showed that it can be.

Finally, no one needs reminding that the Brewer offense is good. On a pure comparison basis it has to be, because though no one will confuse me for a Yuni Betancourt fan, he is if nothing else a slightly better hitter overall than Alcides Escobar at this point. And considering he’s the only real lineup change, you have to think this offense can at least do what it was able to do last year. So far, the Brewers are third in wOBA in the NL, and… 10th in runs scored. That won’t last. The Nationals have the third worst wOBA and still have scored more runs than the Brewers. They have been worse on the road and worse with runners in scoring position, and there’s no reason to expect either trend to continue.

I keep looking at this nifty little table from Beyond the Boxscore. Being within 5 or so games of first at the end of May is critical, and last night was a huge swing in the probability of doing so. The playoffs are there for the taking this year, and justified or not, I’m feeling pretty confident.

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Brewers Acquire Nyjer Morgan

By Jack Moore on March 27, 2011

Just as quickly as the pitching depth problem was addressed with the aaddition of Sergio Mitre, a problem of outfield depth was created with the departure of Chris Dickerson. Although it looked as if the Brewers were going to go with Brandon Boggs and Jeremy Reed as the fourth and fifth outfielders, the Brewers pulled the trigger on a trade Sunday morning to bring in CF Nyjer Morgan from the Nationals in exchange for positionless (technically a third baseman for now) prospect Cutter Dykstra.

The loss of Dykstra is irrelevant. He put up a nice line in the minors last season (.312 AVG/.416 OBP/.412 SLG), but he still strikes out too much and doesn’t have enough power for his bat to play at a non-premium position. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein tweeted of Dykstra, “Not a fan of new Nationals IF Cutter Dykstra who I saw many times in 2010. Doesn’t have D chops to stay in IF; plus speed is gone.” Dykstra’s ceiling is utility player, and it will be a minor miracle if he reaches it.

Nyjer Morgan, on the other hand, is a very interesting player. He’s one of the speediest players in the game, capable of playing good to great defense in center field as well as utilizing speed on the bases. His bat, however, often leaves a bit to be desired. He holds a solid .283/.344/.360 career batting line, but he collapsed last season en route to a .253/.319/.314 line with the Nationals in 2010 (577 plate appearances).

As with players on down years, some bounceback should be expected. Morgan takes enough walks that he should be able to maintain a .330 OBP or higher, and even with the very limited power that he provides, that’s a solid performance for a good defensive center fielder. And even though the ridiculous +28 UZR (or 2.8 wins better than the average center fielder) Morgan posted in 2009 was either unsustainable or at the high end of the margin for error, Morgan still appears to be an above average fielder – and he should be with his blazing speed.

Morgan should also provide value on the bases, although his reckless base stealing needs to be reined in by the Brewers coaching staff. I detailed over at FanGraphs how Morgan has actually cost his team by getting picked off or caught stealing so many times. However, even with these issues, he’s provided baserunning value through other factors, like taking third base on singles or home on doubles. If Ed Sedar and the rest of the staff can harness that raw speed, Morgan could become even more of a force, perhaps stealing 30+ bases without making 15+ outs in the process.

Overall though, Morgan is a good bet to provide some value off the bench and may even threaten Carlos Gomez for the starting job in center field before too long. The previous two days have seen the team become markedly better, as the team added potential contributors as well as depth to a team needing both. I would certainly take the combination of Mitre and Morgan over Chris Dickerson and Cutter Dykstra, and I believe most organizations would agree. The Brewers’ creative use of their assets should pay dividends this summer.

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Brewers Acquire Zack Greinke

By Jack Moore on December 19, 2010

You read that right. When I saw the trade, as first broken by Jim Breen over at Bernie’s Crew, I was in disbelief. But it actually happened. The Brewers have added a not only an ace, but possibly one of the 10 or even five best pitchers in the league. To acquire Greinke (as well as SS Yuniesky Betancourt and $2M), the Brewers sent Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, and Jeremy Jeffress

It’s easy to look at Greinke’s 2010 (4.17 ERA, 10-14) and say that he’s not an ace, but we know better than that. Even the old school guys and even the Baseball Writer’s Association of America knows better than that. Greinke had a similar (although not as good) season as Mariner’s ace Felix Hernandez: terrible run support and terrible bullpen support. Throw in some terrible defense, and you have Greinke’s season. His strikeouts were down and his home runs were back to human levels, but that shouldn’t be surprising, considering his 2009 season (2.16 ERA, 2.33 FIP, 9.4 fWAR!) was probably the best single pitching season since Pedro Martinez’s 1999.

We probably can’t expect Greinke to ever repeat that glorious 2009, but he’s still an elite pitcher. Projections for Greinke in the AL Central sit around a 3.30-3.60 ERA with similar peripherals. With a move to the NL, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t beat that. With a legitimate offensive team behind him (although rough defense behind him), Greinke’s winning woes should be behind him.

The Brewers rotation of Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson isn’t quite the Aces Wild the Phillies have, but it’s on par with the Giants and Cardinals rotations and may be the second best in the league. Even with the losses of Escobar and Cain, the Brewers have to be considered an NL Central contender, if not the favorite.

Doug Melvin sold high on Lorenzo Cain. I’m a believer in his defense, but he has a complete lack of power (all of 28 minor league home runs from 2006-2010) and has some strikeout issues. Cain should be a good player for Kansas City, but he seems like a 3.0 WAR player to me at his best – he’s never going to hit for the power to take a step towards being a star. With Chris Dickerson (Bill James projection of .271/.363/.422) and Carlos Gomez in center field, any drop off should be minimal.

Alcides Escobar did nothing for the Brewers in 2010, but there’s still reason to believe he can be a productive shortstop. He should see some positive regression on his BABIP and could put up something like a .280/.320/.380 line for years to come. That, again, makes Escobar a decent MLB player, but like Cain, the odds are against him becoming a star. I’ll be shocked if he ever posts a SLG% above .400. The Brewers added Yuniesky Betancourt to play shortstop, but he might be the worst player in the majors, so Milwaukee will probably (at least possibly) look for other options there, such as Nick Punto or Cristian Guzman.

Jeremy Jeffress is another player with loads of talent, but he definitely has the lowest ceiling of the quartet. As far as stuff, it’s difficult to find a superior pitcher at any level of baseball. However, due to makeup problems and some control issues, Jeffress simply hasn’t been able to stick as a starting pitcher. The Brewers attempted to make him a starter in the Arizona Fall League, but most reports out of prospect guys like Keith Law were not positive. His absolute ceiling is as a closer, and he probably tops out as a useful bullpen piece. An asset, sure, but something that can easily be found in the later rounds of the draft, on the waiver wire, or in the Rule 5 draft.

The real prize for the Royals is Jake Odorizzi. The 2008 first round pick burst onto the prospect scene with a fantastic 2010 season with Class A Wisconsin. In 120 innings, Odorizzi posted a 3.43 ERA and a 2.98 FIP, striking out over 10 per nine innings and only walking three per nine. Odorizzi has a shot at becoming an ace, but it’s more likely that he becomes a solid #2 starter. Still, that’s an incredibly valuable commodity, and Odorizzi is likely going to be ranked in the top 100 prospects in baseball by most reputable lists.

Although losing Odorizzi hurts, Marc Hulet of FanGraphs put it best: “This is certainly quantity over quality. There are no can’t miss prospects and no blue-chip, young stars. You have a raw, potential No. 2 or 3 starter, an eighth- or ninth-inning reliever, a slick-fielding, light-hitting infielder, and a speedy centerfielder with contact issues.” The Brewers long-term future isn’t helped by this at all – their system is almost certainly last in the league now – but if the plan is to go for it, this is the move Doug Melvin needed to make. Zack Greinke gives the Brewers a fantastic starting rotation to go along with one of the league’s top offensive units.

2011 will be a great year for baseball in Milwaukee. The race for the NL Central is on.

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An Important Post-Season Note

By Jack Moore on October 5, 2010

The completion of Sunday’s games and the elimination of the St. Louis Cardinals and the Boston Red Sox indicated the final time that the Milwaukee Brewers Baseball Club would pay either Jeff Suppan or Bill Hall for their participation in a Major League Baseball game.

Congratulations, Brewer fans (and Mark Attanasio). Your long nightmare is over.

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Jeremy Jeffress Debuts

By Jack Moore on September 2, 2010

Yes, the Brewers lost tonight and spoiled a solid outing from Chris Narveson. However, the real story has to be the Major League debut of Jeremy Jeffress, who threw a scoreless eighth against the Reds. Jeffress’s career has suffered from two drug suspensions totaling 150 games. To begin the 2009 season, his age 22 season and fourth professional season began all the way down with Low-A Wisconsin with a change from starter to reliever. Jeffress still had potential, but his personal issues along with his lack of production when he was actually on the field combined to crumble his prospect status. Not too many people imagined he would make it to the show in 2010, and personally, I would’ve been surprised to see him in Milwaukee by 2011.

Instead, Jeffress tore apart Low-A, High-A, and AA, striking out 11.7 batters per 9 innings while walking only 3.3. On top of that, Jeffress didn’t allow a single extra base hit in his 33 innings. Obviously, that’s not a lot of data to go on, but we definitely saw why Jeffress is performing so well in the minors tonight. Jeffress flashed a 95-98 MPH fastball and supplemented it with a biting 76-80 MPH curveball (data via Brooks Baseball. That’s a great arsenal, and although his control didn’t exactly seem refined last night, that arsenal should allow Jeffress to develop into a high quality reliever. I wouldn’t expect him to begin 2011 with the Brewers at this point, but with a little more development in AAA and another year of, dare I say it, maturity, we could see Jeremy Jeffress producing at the MLB level within a year. That’s a huge boost for this Brewers organization, and today’s debut is something worth celebrating.

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