As soon as ink hit paper on Aramis Ramirez’s new three-year contract to play third base for the Milwaukee Brewers, it was clear Casey McGehee was not long for the roster. The Brewers had until 11 PM Tuesday to tender McGehee, an arbitration eligible player next season, a contract for next season or allow him to become a free agent. Instead, the Pirates jumped in at the 11th hour, trading the Brewers relief pitcher Jose Veras in exchange for McGehee.

Veras lives off a hard fastball, averaging over 94 MPH on the pitch. His repertoire also includes a curveball and a much lesser used splitfinger.

Fastball:

Curveball:

Continue reading »

In an utterly devastating development for the Milwaukee Brewers, news has emerged Saturday night that Ryan Braun will face a 50 game suspension for the use of performance enhancing drugs.

Could we have seen this coming? Braun, the 2011 National League Most Valuable Player, entered training camp with about 15 pounds of extra muscle in his lower half. He posted by far his best offensive season to date, with a .332/.397/.597 batting line, 33 home runs, 109 runs scored, and 111 runs batted in. He showed exceptional power to all fields and looked to be a completely new player. These things can happen at age 27 without the assistance of steroids — there was very little suspicion of any foul play with Braun, already on the brink of superstardom, prior to this report. Now, any accomplishment by Braun, future or past, will be tainted.

Beyond just the impact on Braun, this will be a huge test for the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers, who may have their status as contenders revoked with the loss of their star. Wins above replacement tells us that 50 games of Braun, even last season, may only add up to two-to-three wins, but given Braun’s importance to the team, it could easily be more. Even so, three games may be the difference in what looks to be an exceptionally tight NL Central race.

As more details come out, we will have more coverage.

Despite the common reaction, the Milwaukee Brewers franchise did not spontaneously burst into flames upon Francisco Rodriguez’s acceptance of arbitration Wednesday night. Instead, the Brewers sprung to action, filling their hole at shortstop with arguably the best option available on the market, Alex Gonzalez. Gonzalez signed to a one-year deal with a vesting option for 2013 (terms undisclosed as of this writing) as the Winter Meetings closed Thursday.

For the blind or the lazy, this deal may hardly seem like an upgrade over Yuniesky Betancourt. The two are indeed very similar hitters, and Brewer fans may get as incensed by Gonzalez’s out-making ways as they did by Betancourt. Gonzalez hit .242/.270/.372 in 2011, disturbingly similar to Betancourt’s .252/.271/.381 performance with Milwaukee last season.

Continue reading »

Jerry Hairston Jr., one of the players who sparked the Brewers’ late season surge to the top of the NL Central as well as their NLDS victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks, will not be back next season. He signed a two-year, $6 million dollar contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of Monday’s Winter Meetings.

As big an impact as Hairston made down the stretch, there is a reason this is his first multi-year contract in his entire career. Hairston is a career .258/.326/.371 hitter, and as good as that looks now, we must account for how much of that career was spent in eras of much higher offense. The all-encompassing statistic wRC+ does so, and Hairston ranks at a well-below-average 87 on that scale. Versatility counts for something, yes, but only so much.

Make no mistake, the Brewers could have used Hairston as a utility man to shore up the weak left side of the infield. With Craig Counsell also out of the picture, the Brewers need to find not one but two men who can handle shortstop by the start of the season, and Hairston may have been one of the better options available to fill that role.

Although utility players don’t grow on trees, replacing Hairston can be done. Unfortunately, the organization is bare when it comes to up the middle players — for as good a glove as Eric Farris possesses, there is no reason to believe he can hit well enough to warrant major league playing time yet, and Zelous Wheeler simply isn’t ready yet.

The solution at shortstop is simple if the Brewers decide to pony up for Jimmy Rollins. Then the Brewers can simply troll the market for a Willie Bloomquist (or even, gasp, Yuniesky Betancourt) type and call it a winter at the position. However, things get more complicated in the rather likely situation the Phillies do what it takes to retain Rollins’s services, or the situation in which the Brewers aren’t willing to offer the eight-figures over the three or four years necessary.

The highest profile shortstop remaining beyond Rollins is Rafael Furcal, a current target of the Brewers. However, he wouldn’t be enough by himself — he has failed to play even 100 games in three of the last four seasons. That means the Brewers will have to dive into the secondary market at some point. It seems the best option remaining there is Alex Gonzalez, most recently of the Atlanta Braves. Gonzalez has a bat disturbingly similar to that of Betancourt, owning a .247/.291/.399 career line. However, he is widely regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in the league, a far cry from the lead-footed Betancourt.

The market is thin beyond Gonzalez and Furcal, and the backup option is likely to be underwhelming. Ronny Cedeno, Jack Wilson and Nick Punto all have the ability to play at least replacement level baseball at shortstop and should come relatively cheap. Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria have names that bore success in the past but little else.

It is unfortunate the Brewers will not have Hairston available as a utility man next season, as his versatility would fit a huge hole on the roster. But chances are Hairston’s best day as a Brewer were already beyond him. As unimpressive as some of the options presented above may be, the Brewers should be able to replace his performance as they fill out the left side of the infield for 2012.

With Nelson Cruz about to start for the Texas Rangers in Game One of the World Series, I figured it would be worth it to post this reminder of Nelson Cruz’s wildly twisting road to the Major Leagues.

Upon seeing former Brewers farmhand Nelson Cruz rake in the playoffs – he’s hitting .371 with 4 HRs – it’s easy to turn around and criticize the Brewers for trading him away. Cruz was a part of the Carlos Lee trade that brought in Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench, and Laynce Nix – not exactly a shining moment in Brewers history – but when we look at Nelson Cruz’s career path, it will perhaps shed some light on why Cruz was included in that deal.

All transaction data taken from Cruz’s SBNation player page. All minor/major league stats from Baseball-Reference

1998
- 2/17
Signed as an undrafted free agent by the New York Mets
- No minors data available; played in Dominican leagues until 2000

2000
- 8/30
Traded from the New York Mets to the Oakland Athletics for IF Jorge Velandia

2001
- Minors: RK
23 G, .250/.283/.409

2002
- Minors: A-
63 G, .276/.316/.397

2003
- Minors: A
119 G, .238/.292/.430

2004
- Minors: A+
66 G, .345/.407/.582
- Minors: AA
67 G, .313/.377/.542
- Minors: AAA
4 G, .231/.286/.538
- 10/15
Contract purchased by Oakland Athletics
- 12/15
Traded by Oakland Athletics with P Justin Lehr to the Milwaukee Brewers for IF Keith Ginter

2005
- 3/18
Optioned to AAA Nashville
- Minors: AAA
60 G, .269/.382/.490
- Minors: AA
68 G, .306/.388/.577
- 8/17
Recalled by MLB Milwaukee
- Majors
8 G, .200/.429/.400

2006
- 3/25
Optioned to AAA Nashville
- Minors: AAA
104 G, .302/.378/.528
- 7/28
Recalled to MLB Milwaukee
Traded by Milwaukee Brewers with OF Carlos Lee to Texas Rangers for RP Francisco Cordero, OF Kevin Mench, OF Laynce Nix, P Julian Cordero.
- Majors
41 G: .223/.261/.385

2007
- Majors
96 G: .235/.287/.384
- 7/5
Optioned to AAA Oklahoma
- Minors: AAA
44 G, .352/.428/.698

2008
-3/29
Designated for assignment by Texas Rangers
-4/3
Clears waivers, outrighted to AAA Oklahoma
- Minors: AAA
103 G, .342/.429/.695
- 8/25
Contract purchased by Texas Rangers
- Majors
31 G, .331/.421/.609

2009
- 7/14
Plays in MLB All-Star Game
- Majors
128 G, .260/.332/.524

2010
- Majors
108 G, .318/.374/.576
- 10/6
Appears in first career playoff game, homers off David Price

Obviously, it’s disappointing that Nelson Cruz is doing this for a team other than the Brewers, but two other teams have traded him for a much lower return and the Rangers exposed him to all 30 teams in 2008. Cruz’s total lack of big league performance through age 27 was worrisome for the Rangers and apparently the rest of the league shared that sentiment. Hindsight is 20/20, and now we see Cruz as one of the better slugging outfielders in the MLB. However, we’re not that far removed from the thought of Cruz as the quintessential AAAA player. It’s really not fair to put blame on the Brewers front office for including him in the Carlos Lee trade after the fact – there’s certainly an argument to be made that it was a poor choice, but using his MLB stats from 2008 on to prove that is fallacious.

In probably the most inexplicable decision of the Milwaukee Brewers season to date, Mark Kotsay received the start in center field in Wednesday’s Game Three of the NLCS. In related news, the Milwaukee Brewers lost Game Three of the NLCS.

Kotsay put together one of the most disastrous first innings possible — in the top of the frame, Kotsay drew a walk but was doubled off second base on a Prince Fielder fly ball to center field, and then in the bottom half, Kotsay’s defensive incompetence certainly resulted in one extra baserunner (Jon Jay) and arguably a second (Albert Pujols). Seeing as the Cardinals plated all four of their runs in the first inning and the Brewers squandered a first-and-second, one out chance largely due to Kotsay’s failures, Ron Roenicke’s decision likely will and definitely deserves a healthy amount of criticism. It was, simply put, the wrong choice — even with Nyjer Morgan’s struggles, there is little reason to believe Mark Kotsay will outhit him, and Carlos Gomez multiple orders of magnitude better on defense. Kotsay doesn’t offer enough over the other two options to warrant playing time.

But Kotsay isn’t fully to blame. He was on base three times, walking twice and hitting a home run to bring the Brewers within one in the third inning. He led the team in offensive Win Probability Added with a +.144 mark. The next closest? Yuniesky Betancourt, at +.035. Kotsay’s defensive blunders may have been worse than his offensive production was good, but his performance on the field was by no means crippling.

No, the Brewers were killed by an inability to hit Chris Carpenter, who had a decent night but clearly was not at the top of his game, and more shockingly, the front end of the Cardinals’ bullpen. Specifically Lance Lynn recorded four key outs, putting up a +.147 WPA, the second highest mark of any player in the game to Jason Motte’s +.182.

The big Brewers bats just weren’t able to produce when they were needed. Corey Hart ran his hitless streak to 10 at-bats, Prince Fielder was held in check all night, going 0-for-4. Ryan Braun was 1-for-3 with a hit-by-pitch and Rickie Weeks was 1-for-4, starting the first rally of the game in the top of the second, but neither could produce in key situations late in the game.

After the first inning, Yovani Gallardo settled down and did his job, and the bullpen was excellent after a rough day on Monday. The hitters had more than enough chances to bring the game around, and they just didn’t. Ron Roenicke deserves blame for putting the Brewers in a bad situation with Kotsay in center field, but the hitters were given more than enough chances to dig their way out, and they just didn’t.

The Brewers still only need to win one of the next two games to set up a scenario in which two straight wins at Miller Park mean a World Series berth. All is not lost. But it is now an uphill climb for the Milwaukee Brewers. Thursday’s Game Four is not a must-win — a term thrown around incredibly loosely these days — but it is the closest thing to it. This time around, mistakes cannot be made. The best lineup must be on the field, and that lineup must capitalize when given the chance.

If not, Milwaukee’s backs will be squarely against the wall come the weekend.

With the two losses in Phoenix during the NLDS, the Brewers have fallen to 39-44 on the road. Between that unimpressive record and the specter of three games at St. Louis, there is naturally some fear among the fanbase concerning the Brewers’ chances of advancing to the World Series.

When we watch the Brewers win 70% of their games at home, it’s only natural to feel a little disappointed — even cheated — when the team goes under .500 on the road. But let’s not forget: the struggles of the team on the road have been far from a universal constant for the Brewers this season.

The Brewers suffered through three road trips in the first month and change of the season: a three game sweep at the hands of the Reds to open the year, a 4-4 trip between Pittsburgh, Washington, and Philadelphia, and the real kicker, a 2-8 ordeal split between Houston, Atlanta, and St. Louis, leaving the Brewers at 6-15 on the road to open the campaign.

Lest we forget, this Brewers squad was nowhere near full strength. Just looking at April, we see a plurality of players no longer playing a role thrown into the fire. Erick Almonte received 29 plate appearances, as did Wil Nieves. Mark Kotsay took 57 in lieu of the injured Corey Hart. Casey McGehee took 107, finally hitting the pine in the playoffs with the emergence of Jerry Hairston Jr. Jeremy Reed and Brandon Boggs took 17 combined. On the pitching side, Sean Green pitched 9.1 innings, Sergio Mitre pitched 9.0, Mitch Stetter 5.1, Zach Braddock 8.1, Brandon Kintzler 12.1, and Marco Estrada took 21 innings in the place of the injured Zack Greinke. The hitters combined for -0.4 WAR; the pitchers for -0.1 WAR.

The team on the field has been completely revamped. Zack Greinke is getting starter’s innings over Estrada; Francisco Rodriguez and Takashi Saito have solidified the bullpen; Corey Hart, Nyjer Morgan, and Jerry Hairston Jr. have taken the starts in the outfield and at third base. The roster on the field over the next three days in St. Louis is the same at the top as it was six months — six months! — ago. But the foundation of players necessary to hold the team up is much improved, gone from replacement players to productive major leaguers.

Since those three road trips, the Brewers have a 33-29 record on the road (and 31-22 against National League opponents) — not excellent, not elite, but not the extraordinarily poor record the year-long treatment of the Brewers’ road struggles would lead some to believe. The Brewers are more than capable of winning one game — even two — in St. Louis, and if they can do that, it will come down to two games at Miller Park for a chance to go to the World Series. Despite Monday’s poor showing, it’s hard to imagine this year’s Brewers team asking for anything more than that.

The mark of a great team is the resiliency to win despite the failure of one cog of the machine. Zack Greinke may have picked up his 12th win at home and his team may have won for his 18th straight home start (dating back to his time in Kansas City), but there is no doubt: Greinke did not perform well in Sunday’s Game One. When all was said and done, Greinke allowed six runs on eight hits over his six-plus innings of work. It was all too reminiscent of his early-season starts, where he would combine stretches of brilliance (seven straight retired from the end of the first through the fourth) with great peripherals (six strikeouts, two walks) but would make the critical mistake and pay for it — David Freese’s fourth inning home run in this case.

But luckily, there are 24 other men on the playoff roster, and where one fails, others can thrive. As they have so often this season, the Brewers offense picked up Zack Greinke even though he couldn’t make Ryan Braun’s first-inning 463-foot two-run shot off Jaime Garcia stand. The fifth inning saw the full potential of the powerful Brewers offense unleashed, and it was too much too quick even for Tony La Russa to get a reliever warm.

Continue reading »