Zuma Images.

Weeks's swings on 5/15/12. From TexasLeaguers.

Over the last two nights, Weeks saw 45 pitches throughout his plate appearances. Weeks swung at 17 of those pitches; 4 of those swings were at pitches outside of the strike zone. Of the 28 pitches that Weeks looked at, approximately 18 were outside of the strike zone (and a few others were borderline pitches).

Weeks's swings from 5/16/12. From TexasLeaguers.

This basic discipline trend follows Weeks’ basic career outlines. Weeks is an extreme non-contact hitter; what I mean by that is, Weeks does not rely on knocking the ball in play to generate his offensive value. Rather, he strikes out, walks, and homers at strong rates (beyond getting hit by pitches), occupying nearly 40% of his career plate appearances with those outcomes. In order to enact this approach, Weeks does not swing at many pitches outside of the zone (21.5% in his career); for his career, he swings at 41.2% of his total pitches.

One of the difficulties of this approach, I gather, is that it’s counterproductive to “hit one’s way out of a slump.” You’ll hear this from time to time — sometimes, while in a slump, a batter simply needs to do whatever they can to collect hits, little singles or bloops, bumped into play somewhere over the diamond. Yet, in Weeks’s case, he builds his approach around looking for his pitch and driving that pitch; everything else is superfluous.

It’s extremely difficult to look at a four strikeout game and to see a successful night, or a silver lining, anyway. Last night, Weeks showed strong discipline, swinging at one fastball and one slider outside the zone (all night!). Furthermore, Bud Norris and Rhiner Cruz supplied Weeks 12 sliders, which is Weeks’ last valuable pitch (in terms of batting outcomes). Weeks laid off those pitches for the most part, only swinging at three sliders. This is a good sign — if Weeks cannot do much with a pitch, he need not swing at it, and if a slider is his weakness, it’s a good sign that he recognized and took the vast majority of last night’s sliders.

While you hear Brewers fans bashing Weeks today on sports radio, or wondering what he needs to do to improve, think about the discipline that Weeks showed in taking 9 of 12 sliders; think about the discipline that Weeks showed in swinging at 8 pitches in the strike zone (against 2 pitches outside of the strike zone). Ultimately, it’s not as though Weeks is simply looking at fastballs in the zone and striking out because of that; he’s swinging at pitches that he can drive, and laying off troublesome offerings.

Dare I say that it’s only a matter of time before Weeks jumps from this level of discipline to a productive hitting level that we’ve become accustomed to from second base.

References:
FanGraphs.
TexasLeaguers. Trip Somers, 2009-2012.

Images: strike zone snapshots copyright Trip Somers, 2009-2012.

http://everyjoe.com/sports/brewers-rickie-weeks-out-for-the-season/

Wolf (2-4, 6.38) took the loss after he allowed seven runs, six earned, seven hits, three walks and one strike out over just four innings. Norris (4-1, 3.58) kept the Brewers’ bats silent, allowing just four hits, one run and a season high nine strike outs over seven strong innings. The only blemish on his night was a solo home run by Corey Hart in the fourth inning with Houston already leading 5-0. Norris is 3-0 in his last four starts with his last loss coming April 24th against Milwaukee.

The Astros opened the scoring in the bottom half of the second inning. Carlos “El Caballo” Lee lined a lead off single to left. Jed Lowrie knocked a RBI double high off the wall in left field scoring Lee from first. Right fielder Justin Maxwell, first pitch swinging, collected the Astros’ third consecutive hit on a sharp ground ball back up the middle scoring Lowrie.

In the bottom of the third, Bud Norris hit a hot shot off the glove of Rickie Weeks into center field. After Jordan Schafer struck out looking, Jose Altuve hit a single to right field. J.D. Martinez then walked on four pitches. El Caballo hit a two RBI single past a diving Cesar Izturis, giving the Astros a 4-0 advantage. Jed Lowrie reached on an error by Corey Hit on a well-hit ball to deep right with J.D. Martinez scoring Houston’s fifth run.

Corey Hart atoned for his error by belting a solo shot to left, his eighth of the year. The run cut the advantage to 5-1. Hart also went deep off Bud Norris in the April 24th contest at Miller Park.

Jason Castro started the Astros’ fourth with a walk. Bud Norris advanced Castro to second on a sacrifice bunt. Jordan Schafer knocked a bloop single to center scoring Castro, 6-1 Astros. Jose Altuve walked. With J.D. Martinez batting, the Astros executed a double steal. Martinez flied out and Schafer tagged and scored. In an unorthodox move, Nyjer Morgan called off Hart in right center on the play, and his throw was off target. Although Hart possesses the better arm and was already settled under the ball, Morgan stepped in front to record the out.

Ron Roenicke pinch-hit Brooks Conrad for Randy Wolf to lead off the fifth. Conrad struck out on a full count, still looking for hit number one on the season. Norris fanned Morgan and Rickie Weeks to strike out the side.

Vinnie Chulk took over for Randy Wolf and struck out the side for the Brewers in the bottom of the fifth.

In the bottom of the seventh Carlos Lee plastered Tim Dillard’s 1-0 offering over the fence in left field for his third hit on the evening and third home run of the season. 8-1 Astros.

Rhiner Cruz took over on the mound for Houston in the eighth, replacing Norris. Rickie Weeks struck out for the fourth time, earning the infamous golden sombrero.

Rhiner Cruz lost his control in the ninth, walking Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart and forcing a change from manager Brad Mills. Left-hander Wesley Wright came and erased Edwin Maysonet, pinch-hitting for Kottaras. Jonathan Lucroy then ripped a two RBI pinch hit triple on the first pitch from Wright for the final margin of 8-3.

Aramis Ramirez went 0-3 with a walk and a run scored, snapping a twelve game hitting streak.

El Caballo left the Brewers’ pitching staff with a long face going 3-4 with a home run, two runs scored and three RBI.

My brief question this morning is, “what changed?” How did Brewers pitchers change their approaches during the last 7 games?

Kathy Willens / AP

During his first six outings, Greinke threw his fastballs nearly 70% of his deliveries, specifically going to his newfound cut fastball in 18% of his deliveries. Otherwise, he swapped his brands of moving or riding fastballs with his slider, curves, and change.

Over his last dominant 15 innings, Greinke basically shelved the cutter, moving his curveballs and slider to a more prominent position in his repertoire. Greinke’s fastballs came in just under 92 MPH, according to TexasLeaguers, during his last two starts, and his curves and slider give him multiple velocity levels behind his fastballs.

By throwing either a slider or one of his curves in more than 34% of his selections, Greinke provided more variations in his deliveries than his cutter supplied. Suspenseful narrator’s voice: is this the end of Greinke’s cut fastball? Tune in next week to find out!

Yovani Gallardo
2012 is really a tale of two pitchers for Gallardo. His overall performance is skewed by two whippings at the hands of the St. Louis nine, but when he’s not facing the Redbirds, Gallardo boasts 39 IP and 11 R — that’s not bad by any stretch of the imagination (of course, the Brewers’ bats only scored 17 runs over Gallardo’s top 6 starts, resulting in a mere 3-3 overall record during those ballgames).

Gallardo’s overall pitching approach morphed to a fastball/slider preference as the years advanced, and early this season, it was the same story for the righty: during his first six starts, Gallardo threw a fastball or slider in 82% of his overall deliveries. Beyond that, he favored his curveball over his change up, practically eliminating his change-of-pace from his arsenal.

Whereas Greinke’s success over his last two starts corresponded with a rather extreme change in his pitch selection, Gallardo’s recent success accompanies a solidified fastball/slider approach. The only notable shift in Gallardo’s last two starts is that he hardly threw his change whatsoever (1 delivery in two starts), exclusively working his curveball when he wasn’t throwing a fastball or slider.

Randy Wolf
The Brewers’ crafty southpaw boasted 24 runs allowed during his first 32 innings this season, but he put together his first truly great outing of the season against the Cubs at Miller Park.

Wolf claimed early on that his stuff was good, but he just was not being aggressive enough. Oddly enough, his first six starts feature fastball selection above 60%, including his cutter and his primary fastballs. Wolf’s favorite off-speed pitch was his Bugs Bunny curve (nearly 18% of his selections), followed by nearly equal usage of his change and slider.

Against the Cubs, Wolf further emphasized his fastballs, going to his cutter 21 times (against 23 riding fastballs and 19 rising fastballs. Pitch f/x classified one of his fastballs as a two-seamer, but it’s not clear that he was attempting to use that offering as a sinker, even though his “two seamer” moved in on lefties more than his primary fastball). Beyond his fastballs, Wolf worked his curveball more, pocketing his change and slider somewhat.

Shaun Marcum
After allowing 12 runs during his first 24 innings, Marcum put things together during his first three May starts. Although Marcum blanked the Padres over 7 innings to open May, his start against the Cubs was arguably stronger, as the slow-throwin’ righty struck out 6 Cubs while walking 2 (over 7 innings).

One of the interesting things about Marcum’s 2011 campaign was that he slowly shelved his signature change up, in favor of his cutter, as the season wore on. To open 2012, he selected his cutter and change up at almost the same rate, adding in a couple of other fastballs, as well as a slider (more than 17%) and curve (more than 10%).

Marcum’s primary fastball cooked against the Cubs, and the righty stayed with that 87 MPH offering nearly 30% of his deliveries. Behind that selection, Marcum worked his change up and slider equally (36% of his total selections), and he also emphasized his curveball much more than his cutter and secondary fastball.

If you compare Marcum’s 2012 approach to his entire career, his identity as a pitcher is truly changing. Perhaps this is the ultimate change up from one of the few card-carrying junkballers in the MLB, but Marcum is no longer a change-up first pitcher. Instead of selecting his change up more frequently than any of his other fastballs or off-speed pitches, Marcum is now working his cutter, slider, and curve more frequently.

Oddly enough, his slider is also much slower in 2012 than in previous seasons, which leads me to believe that he’s using a different pitch this season (or focusing on the pitch in a different way). If I didn’t know any better, I’d think that Marcum was setting up his slider to be a change of speeds from his cutter, while using his signature change up as a variation off his main fastballs.

Marco Estrada
One of the things I love about Marco Estrada is that he is a straightforward pitcher. No gimmicks, no tricks, no nothing — just fastball, curveball, and change up, thank you very much.

During his first three starts, Estrada threw his primary fastball more than 61% of his deliveries (with a secondary fastball appearing in nearly 2% of his deliveries). Otherwise, Estrada favored his curveball over his change up, throwing the breaking ball nearly 21% of the time (against 16% for his change).

Not unlike Gallardo, Estrada solidified his earlier approach during his strong start against the Cubs. That curveball jumped to 22% of his selections, that change up appeared 17% of the time; the rest were fastballs, coming in at 90 MPH. Three pitches, no waiting.

RESOURCES:
Baseball-Reference. Sports-Reference, LLC, 2000-2012.
TexasLeaguers. Trip Somers, 2009-2012.

IMAGES:

http://www.thefantasyfix.com/1/post/2011/3/2011-fantasy-baseball-draft-day-debate-zack-greinke-or-clayton-kershaw.html

http://www.lehighvalleylive.com/sports/index.ssf/2010/09/randy_wolf_puts_a_halt_to_phil.html

http://www.rantsports.com/blog/2011/04/27/milwaukee-brewers-was-yovani-gallardos-2010-season-a-fluke/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaun_Marcum

http://profantasybaseball.com/estrada-narveson/

Nashville Sounds: (14-24), 10.0 GB

RHP Mark Rogers:  5.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R (3 ER), 3 BB, 7 K, 1 HR — 4.28 ERA
RHP Johnnie Lowe:  (W, 3-0) 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 0.00 ERA
RHP Jim Henderson:  (S, 2) 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K — 0.00 ERA

LF Corey Patterson:  2-3, 2B, RBI, BB, 2 SB (3), 3 R, K — .216 AVG
C Martin Maldonado:  2-4, 2B, RBI, R — .215 AVG
RF Jordan Brown:  1-4, 2B, RBI, R — .238 AVG

Huntsville Stars: (22-17), 0.5 GB

RHP Hiram Burgos:  (L, 0-1) 6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 5 K — 6.00 ERA
RHP Darren Byrd:  2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 3.13 ERA
LHP Mitch Stetter:  0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 4.50 ERA

RF Kentrail Davis:  0-2, 2 BB, K — .257 AVG
C Anderson De La Rosa:  1-3, R, K — .298 AVG

Brevard County Manatees: (14-23), 10.5 GB

Game postponed due to inclement weather.

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: (23-16), 1.0 GB

RHP David Goforth:  (L, 3-3) 2.2 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 1 HR — 6.27 ERA
RHP Chad Pierce:  4.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K — 2.60 ERA
RHP Tyler Cravy:  1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 5.00 ERA

1B Nick Ramirez:  1-5, HR (1), RBI, R, 2 K — .250 AVG
LF Jason Rogers:  2-5, 2B, 2 RBI, R, K — .290 AVG
RF Max Walla:  1-3, 2B, BB — .227 AVG

Prospect of the Day:  RHP Jim Henderson

Right-hander Jim Henderson has three things going for him that the Brewers organization absolutely loves:

(1) He has yet to surrender an earned run this season.
(2) He is 6-foot-5 and has a big fastball.
(3) He is Canadian.

Those three factors should unequivocally net him a spot in the Brewers’ big league bullpen, right? All kidding aside, the 29-year-old has turned some heads within the organization. The great Mass Hass of Brewerfan.net tweeted last night that a source told him that the organization has as least thought about a promotion to the majors for Henderson.

As with most fringe major league relievers, Henderson suffers from extreme platoon splits. He has held right-handers to a .139 batting average and a 12-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lefties may also have a paltry batting average at only .208, but the strikeout-to-walk ratio is a bit more concerning at 7-to-6. Still, few relievers have the stuff/command to eliminate platoon splits. His performance through the first two months of the season should eventually land him in Milwaukee unless a significant drop-off occurs in the coming weeks.

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This is a common refrain among sports fans, always clamoring for their home nine to show-up against teams that matter in games that matter: “X need to play better against winning teams.”

Even though the Brewers need to improve their performance against winning clubs, their 2012 NL Central division fate might already be doomed due to their future games against losing teams. As much as fans want their teams to beat the opponents that matter, in the original Wild Card era, most division winners and Wild Card teams fattened up against losing squads.

Excluding the 1995 strike-shortened affair, there were 64 National League playoff spots during the first Wild Card era (isn’t it weird to think that we’re in the second Wild Card era?). While it shouldn’t be surprising that the vast majority of those clubs collected at least half of their wins against losing clubs, a sizeable portion of those 64 playoff teams built their win totals on the strength of beating losing clubs.

Overall, 54 of 64 NL playoff clubs from 1996-2011 collected 50% or more of their victories against losing clubs. Beyond that, 27 of those clubs collected more than 60% of their victories against teams with winning percentages south of .500. Within that group of clubs, there were still greater feats, as 16 teams collected more than 65% of their total victories against losing squads (6 of those going beyond 70%!)

So, what are the 2012 Brewers’ chances of building a great winning percentage thanks to playing losing squads?

First and foremost, the 2012 Brewers are among the 8 National League teams that have played the most games against teams at or above .500:

Houston 25
Chicago 24
Arizona 24
Pittsburgh 23
Cincinnati 20
Milwaukee 19
New York 19
Philadelphia 18

The 2011 Cardinals feasted on losing teams, collecting nearly 67% of their victories against teams below .500.

As you can see, there are some bottom dwellers in this category, but also some teams that would be expected to compete, too. Not surprisingly, most of these clubs — even Arizona, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and of course, Milwaukee — do not have particularly great records. This is a real problem for the 2012 Brewers, as there are several other clubs that currently boast losing records even though they built their roster to contend.

(On the other end, check out the current division leaders; only Washington has played even 40% of their games against winning team (going 9-6 in those 15 contests). On the other hand, St. Louis and Los Angeles are fattening up on losing clubs. St. Louis, in particular, has already played 28 contests against the weak NL Central).

The 2012 Brewers have approximately 70 potential games against teams with losing records remaining on their schedule. That includes games against several clubs that are in a position similar to the Brewers — losing clubs that could be expected to compete for their division. Therefore, when the Brewers play the Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Rockies, those games will arguably occur against losing clubs that are not your typical <.500 team. Other fringe clubs, such as the Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates, could also be winning clubs by the time the Brewers play them; again, those clubs could present a real challenge to the Brewers.

On the other hand, the Brewers have 23 games remaining against fringe contenders. These clubs are currently winning, but are straddling the .500 barrier in a way that makes them potential losing-clubs when the Brewers eventually face them. Depending on how the cards fall, the Brewers' future games against the Giants, Reds, and Marlins could be against <.500 clubs, or clubs roughly equal to the Brewers' talent level.

Between those different levels of fringe clubs, the Brewers have a good chance of accumulating approximately 86 games against losing clubs in 2012. Unfortunately, that places them in a difficult position, compared to a club such as the Cardinals. Not only has St. Louis already played 25 games against <.500 teams, but they have 72 games remaining against potential <.500 teams (including, of course, the Phillies, White Sox, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Brewers). They also have approximately 13 games remaining against the Marlins and Giants. The Cardinals have a very real chance at 60 victories before one even needs to consider how well they play against winners.

The 2003 Marlins collected fewer than 42% of their wins against losing teams.

Could the division math be so simple? The Cardinals have a schedule that potentially yields them 97 games against teams with losing records; the Brewers have 86 games against potential losing clubs. (The Reds are a sneaky team in this regard; they have only played 14 games against losing clubs thus far, but they have another 80 games scheduled against potential losing clubs). The Pirates, a fringe contender that could swing either above or below .500, have approximately 68 games remaining against potential losing teams.

This should not be viewed as complaining; it should not be viewed as excuse making. It should be viewed as a basic opportunity, or one explanation of the recipe for a winner: obviously winning teams take talent, but teams can only play the schedule ahead of them, and the difference between a team that takes a division and one that falls short might be as basic as who was on the calendar.

The next time you hear a sports fan say that they want to see their team beat more winning teams to assess the quality of their favorite club, tell ‘em the opposite — you’d rather see your team pile on against losers, just like the majority of playoff teams during the Wild Card era. No matter how much people want to believe that Division champions achieve their status due to merit, the circumstances faced by those teams will also influence their path.

I have a lot of fears about the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers. One is that they put it all together too late, or continue to fire on different cylinders for too long. Another is that they put it together, but as they outplayed their run differential by 6 wins last year, they fail to collect as many in-the-nick-of-time victories this year. Another is simply that their schedule is too tough; perhaps too many of their games remaining against losing teams are scheduled against teams looking to contend, just like the Brewers. There are so many fringe teams in the 2012 National League, the remaining season looks like it’s going to be a real fight. Can the Brewers pull it together to go round-by-round?

WILD CARD ERA PLAYOFF TEAMS:
Year Team Total Wins (Record vs. <.500) / % of total wins / total games vs. <.500 teams
World Series representative in bold

1999 Astros 97 wins (77-35 vs. <.500) .794 / 112
2006 Dodgers 88 wins (69-36 vs. <.500) .784 / 105
2010 Reds 91 wins (71-38 vs. <.500) .780 / 109
2006 Cardinals 83 wins (62-52 vs. <.500) .747 / 114
2011 Brewers 96 wins (69-32 vs. < .500) .719 / 101
1999 Diamondbacks 100 wins (70-35 vs. <.500) .700 / 105

2009 Cardinals 91 wins (63-39 vs.<.500) .692 / 102
1999 Mets 97 wins (vs. 67-35 vs. <.500) .691 / 102
2010 Braves 91 wins (62-38 vs. <.500) .681 / 100
2002 Cardinals 97 wins (65-42 vs. <.500) .670 / 107
2011 Cardinals 90 wins (60-42 vs.. <.500) .667 / 102
2002 Diamondbacks 98 wins (65-29 vs. <.500) .663 / 94
2011 Diamondbacks 94 wins (62-36 vs. <.500) .660 / 98
2006 Mets 97 wins (64-41 vs. <.500) .660 / 105
2006 Padres 88 wins (58-55 vs. <.500) .659 / 113
2000 Cardinals 95 wins (62-30 vs. <.500) .653 / 92

1997 Braves 101 wins (65-23 vs. <.500) .644 / 88
2010 Giants 92 wins (59-29 vs. <.500) .641 / 88
2011 Phillies 102 wins (65-35 vs. < .500) .637 / 100
1999 Braves 103 wins (65-39 vs. <.500) .631 / 104
1998 Astros 102 wins (64-27 vs. <.500) .627 / 91
2007 Cubs 85 wins (53-40 vs. <.500) .624 / 93
1998 Cubs 90 wins (56-37 vs. <.500) .622 / 93
2005 Padres 82 wins (51-51 vs. <.500) .622 / 102
1997 Astros 84 wins (52-41 vs. <.500) .619 / 93
2002 Braves 101 wins (62-37 vs. <.500) .614 / 99
2002 Giants 95 wins (58-32 vs. <.500) .611 / 90

2010 Phillies 97 wins (57-37 vs. <.500) .588 / 94
2009 Rockies 92 wins (54-27 vs.<.500) .587 / 81
1996 Padres 91 wins (53-22 vs. <.500) .582 / 75
1998 Padres 98 wins (57-30 vs. <.500) .582 / 87
2001 Astros 93 wins (54-33 vs. <.500) .581 / 87
2009 Phillies 93 wins (53-33 vs. <.500) .570 / 86
1998 Braves 106 wins (60-26 vs. <.500) .566 / 86
1997 Marlins 92 wins (52-36 vs. <.500) .565 / 88
2005 Astros 89 wins (50-38 vs. <.500) .562 / 88
2004 Cardinals 105 wins (59-24 vs. <.500) .562 / 83
2008 Dodgers 84 wins (47-37 vs. <.500) .560 / 84
2000 Braves 95 wins (53-34 vs. <.500) .558 / 87
2000 Giants 97 wins (54-23 vs. <.500) .557 / 77
2004 Astros 92 wins (51-29 vs. <.500) .554 / 80
2000 Mets 94 wins (52-32 vs. <.500) .553 / 84

2008 Brewers 90 wins (49-24 vs. <.500) .544 / 73
2001 Diamondbacks 92 wins (50-27 vs. <.500) .543 / 77
2001 Cardinals 93 wins (50-34 vs. <.500) .538 / 84
2008 Phillies 92 wins (49-24 vs. <.500) .533 / 73
2005 Cardinals 100 wins (53-32 vs. <.500) .530 / 84
2004 Dodgers 93 wins (49-26 vs. <.500) .527 / 75
2003 Cubs 88 wins (46-29 vs. <.500) .523 / 75
2004 Braves 96 wins (50-30 vs. <.500) .521 / 80
2007 Phillies 89 wins (46-31 vs. <.500) .517 / 77
2001 Braves 88 wins (45-32 vs. <.500) .511 / 77
1996 Cardinals 88 wins (45-30 vs. <.500) .511 / 75
2007 Diamondbacks 90 wins (45-25 vs. <.500) .500 / 70

2009 Dodgers 95 wins (47-32 vs. <.500) .495 / 79
1997 Giants 90 wins (44-42 vs. <.500) .489 / 84
2008 Cubs 97 wins (46-22 vs. <.500) .474 / 68
1996 Braves 96 wins (45-30 vs. <.500) .469 / 75
1996 Dodgers 90 wins (40-36 vs. <.500) .444 / 76
2003 Braves 101 wins (44-18 vs. <.500) .436 / 62
2003 Giants 100 wins (43-22 vs. <.500) .430 / 65
2003 Marlins 91 wins (38-23 vs. <.500) .418 / 61
2007 Rockies 90 wins (36-31 vs. <.500) .400 / 67

2005 Braves 90 wins (33-21 vs. <.500) .367 / 54

1995 Dodgers 78 wins (55-43 vs. <.500) .705 / 98
1995 Rockies 77 wins (51-34 vs. <.500) .662 / 85
1995 Reds 85 wins (52-37 vs. <.500) .612 / 89
1995 Braves 90 wins (54-31 vs. <.500) .600 / 84

Images:

http://sportributor.com/news/3706-10082011-cardinals-vs-brewers-2011-nlcs-series-preview.html

http://blog.zap2it.com/pop2it/2011/10/st-louis-cardinals-win-world-series-david-freese-named-mvp.html

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/421772-best-and-worst-seasons-in-miami-professional-sports-history

This is the same Miguel Batista who last made 20 starts in a season in 2008 with Seattle. The result? A 6.26 ERA that defines “glaring” and a 73:79 K:BB ratio that redefines it. So, naturally, Batista went right out there for the Mets and shut out the Brewers over seven innings. It wasn’t as if the Brewers hit him around and he escaped jam after jam either — Batista allowed just five baserunners, the same number of batters as he struck out. It was a banner performance for the 41-year-old righty; not only was it his best start in recent memory, it was arguably one of the best starts of his 18-year MLB career.

According to Game Score, a handy Bill James metric for easily comparing starts on their merit, Miguel Batista finished with a 73. For reference, average is 50, whereas Phil Humber’s perfect game and Matt Cain’s one-hitter tie for the best of 2012 so far at 96. Zack Greinke’s eight shutout innings in last week’s loss against Cincinnati checks in at 89.

Batista was making his 246th career start Monday night at Citi Field. Only 12 of his previous 245 exceeded his mark of 73; only 19 times did he even get over 70. The list:

Of course, seeing a 41-year-old journeyman carve up one’s favorite team is never an encouraging sign. There is, however, one entry on this list Brewers fans can take some solace in: the September 28th, 2011 start against the Cincinnati Reds in which Batista dealt a two-hit shutout. Although it wasn’t Cincinnati’s best lineup — Paul Janish was at second base instead of Brandon Phillips — the Reds still had some mashers in the lineup, most notably Joey Voto and Jay Bruce. Both sluggers went hitless for the game, with only Chris Heisey and aged wonder Edgar Renteria notching base hits against Batista.

Last year’s Reds scored 4.54 runs per game, only outdone by the Cardinals at 4.70 in the National League. It is justifiably frustrating to watch the Brewers flail against pitching of the caliber of Batista, but let it also serve as an important reminder: even those players considered the dregs of the major leagues are incredibly talented, and when everything goes right even the Miguel Batistas of the world are tough for any lineup to hit.

Lofty pitch counts are nothing new for Gallardo. Only seven of his thirty-three starts last season featured fewer than 100 pitches, and only one of those starts went for longer than five innings (a 97-pitch gem against the New York Mets, in which he surrendered two runs through seven innings).

The high pitch counts are directly caused by his inability to command the strike zone effectively. Coming into Monday evening’s game against the Mets, he had the fewest percentage of first-pitch strikes amongst qualified starting pitchers in all of baseball.

The low percentage of first-pitch strikes has immediately put Gallardo behind in the count against more than half of the opposing batters he has faced throughout the course of the season. That proved to be a common theme again on Monday. Gallardo faced 26 batters, and he only started off the at-bats with strike one 42.3% of the time.

It’s not surprising he walked six hitters and labored through six innings with 109 pitches.

Gallardo also throws a myriad of pitches due to the fact that opposing hitters understand that he does not throw strikes very often. Coming into Monday’s game, opposing batters were only swinging 39.4% of the time. That is yet again the third-lowest mark in all of baseball of qualified starting pitchers. Not only is Gallardo not starting off at-bats with strike one, but opposing hitters have also discovered that the best way to defeat Gallardo is to simply not swing.

Consider this. Of the 109 pitches that Gallardo threw on Monday against the New York Mets, opposing batters only swung and missed three times, yet he struck out six batters. Granted, two of those strikeouts came against the opposing pitcher on foul bunts and should be digested with a grain of salt.

The recipe to solve the Gallardo Riddle on the mound has been patience. Loads of patience from the opposing teams. Gallardo must adjust by throwing more strikes early in the count, which will allow him to get to his curveball in better situations to generate whiffs and limit his pitch counts. This is not saying Gallardo should pitch to contact. This is simply saying that he should work more aggressively in the zone more often to put himself in better position for more efficient punch-outs.

JED BRADLEY INJURED

On Monday, the Manatees’ Twitter feed announced that left-handed pitcher Jed Bradley left the game after only 3.1 innings of work with a groin injury. Bradley struggled with a groin injury throughout the offseason and into early spring training, so his early exit raised significant red flags once the early reports surfaced that it was his groin yet again.

I briefly spoke with Bradley on Monday evening, however, and he says it appears to be nothing more than a minor groin strain. He did not seem overly concerned with the prospect of returning to action in quick order.

It appears the Bradley and the Brewers dodged a bullet in what could have been a much more serious injury, which would have infringed upon his valuable development time down in Brevard County.

QUICK NOTES

>>  Jose Veras pitched a scoreless inning on Monday against the Mets. It was his first outing in which he did not allow a baserunner since April 21, eleven appearances ago.

>>  Cesar Izturis failed to execute a squeeze in the top of the second inning, making the Brewers 5-for-6 in squeeze attempts this season.

>>  Francisco Rodriguez was booed more loudly than Ryan Braun, who has induced raucous jeers in every visiting stadium thus far. The former Mets closer also threw seven of his ten changeups for strikes, which is an encouraging sign.

>>  Aramis Ramirez extended his hitting streak to eleven games on Monday. He also inexplicably dropped the baseball in the eighth inning while attempting to tag out David Wright in a run down. The mistake caused the Brewers to fall three runs behind with only a half inning remaining.

Nashville Sounds: (13-25), 11.5 GB

RHP Mike Fiers:  (W, 1-2) 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K — 3.53 ERA

2B Eric Farris:  3-4, 2 RBI, R — .276 AVG
RF Jordan Brown: 2-3, 2B, RBI, R — .237 AVG
C Martin Maldonado:  1-3, HR (3), RBI, R — .202 AVG

RHP Seth McClung:  (L, 0-4) 4.2 IP, 5 H 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K — 6.25 ERA
LHP Juan Perez:  0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 0.84 ERA
RHP Jim Henderson:  1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 0.00 ERA

CF Logan Schafer:  2-4, 2B — .274 AVG
LF Erick Almonte:  1-3, RBI — .230 AVG

Huntsville Stars: (22-16), 0.5 GB

RHP Tyler Thornburg:  (W, 5-0) 6.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R (1 ER), 3 BB, 4 K — 1.91 ERA
RHP Jesus Sanchez:  (S, 3) 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 0.72 ERA

C Jason Jaramillo:  1-2, 2B, RBI, BB, R — .244 AVG
2B Scooter Gennett:  2-3, 2B, R — .293 AVG
CF Josh Prince:  1-3, 2 RBI, SB (7) — .231 AVG

RHP Kyle Heckathorn:  (L, 2-2) 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HR — 4.17 ERA
LHP Daniel Meadows:  0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 0.00 ERA
RHP Bradley Blanks:  2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K — 4.15 ERA

LF Juan Sanchez:  1-2, BB — .294 AVG
CF Josh Prince:  0-2, BB, SB (8), K — .227 AVG

Brevard County Manatees: (14-23), 10.0 GB

LHP Jed Bradley:  (L, 4-3) 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 0 K — 3.53 ERA
LHP Brian Garman:  2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K — 2.16 ERA
RHP Eric Arnett:  1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 3.12 ERA

1B Cody Hawn:  2-4, RBI, K — .210 AVG
CF Reggie Keen:  1-4, SB (11), R, K — .216 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: (23-15), — GB

RHP Chad Thompson:  (L, 1-1) 2.2 IP, 4 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR — 6.39 ERA
RHP Kevin Shackelford:  1.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 0 K — 6.55 ERA
RHP Mark Williams:  4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K — 2.86 ERA

SS Yadiel Rivera:  1-3, HR (3), RBI, R, K — .222 AVG
RF Max Walla:  0-2, RBI, BB — .224 AVG
LF Ben McMahan:  1-3, 2B, K — .293 AVG

Prospect of the Day:  RHP Mike Fiers

It has been a tough start to the 2012 campaign for Fiers. He compiled a 4.63 ERA in the month of April, but the right-hander tossed a beauty on Monday in Game 1 of the double-header against Reno. He struck out five and only allowed five baserunners (no runs) through seven strong innings.

The biggest issue for Fiers this season has been consistently retiring left-handed batters. They are teeing off to the tune of a .273 batting average, while he holds right-handed batters to a .226 average. His changeup should allow him to neutralize lefties better than most right-handed pitchers, but scouts have said that his stuff has not been particularly sharp this year, dating all the way back to spring training.

Hopefully, this stellar start on Monday is a harbinger of positive things to come. The Brewers could very well use another starter this season, and Fiers could be the man called upon to fill a back-end starter role. Coincidentally, that #5 starter position is about his ceiling as a professional baseball player, too.

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