The last thing this team needs is an injured Kyle Lohse, but the Brewers announced this afternoon that Lohse will miss his next start with irritation and tightness in his elbow. Right-hander Mike Fiers will receive the spot start. Fiers hasn’t allowed a run in his last three appearances out of the bullpen, giving him 4.1 consecutive scoreless innings.

Ron Roenicke downplayed the injury prior to the game:

“He could go out and pitch,” Roenicke said. “But because he didn’t have a Spring Training, we would rather try to get rid of this, so we’re going to bump him a start.”

Elbow injuries are nothing to treat lightly, though. A little irritation is almost always an indicator of something more serious, so while it will obviously be a storyline to watch until Lohse returns to the rotation, it’s something that fans should diligently follow for the next couple months. On the more optimistic side, Lohse has experienced discomfort for the past two or three starts and his velocity hasn’t suffered — which could mean the irritation/tightness/discomfort really is minimal.

For now, the injury means Hiram Burgos will remain in the rotation for at least one additional start. Fiers could eventually replace him — especially if Burgos struggles against the Twins next week — but Fiers is the only potential replacement on the horizon. Tyler Thornburg and Johnny Hellweg are not ready to make the jump to the big-league rotation, and lefty Chris Narveson remains on the disabled list with a finger injury.

The Brewers have had maddening issues in the starting rotation, and the Lohse injury stings like salt in a large wound. If the worst-case scenario happens and Lohse is forced to miss an extended period of time with an elbow injury, the Brewers could find themselves in a really bad spot this summer. They could anyway, considering the team now sits nine games under .500 with a -36 run differential, but removing one of the key cogs in an already-disappointing rotation could spell disaster for the club.

It’s not necessarily time to press the panic button. Owner Mark Attanasio visited the Brewers’ broadcast booth on Wednesday afternoon and reminded everyone the team had an identical record at this time last year and still made a serious run at the second Wild Card spot. The Brewers have almost three-fourths of the season remaining to right the ship. Still, coming into Wednesday’s finale against the Dodgers, the team had a 3.1% chance to reach the postseason (according to Baseball Prospectus), and that razor-thin margin seems even smaller if Kyle Lohse is removed from the starting rotation for an extended period of time.

Thus, I wanted to write an update on some of the Brewers’ top prospects, including some insight from people in (or connected to) the industry.

Orlando Arcia, SS, Class-A Wisconsin

If you’re not already on the Orlando Arcia bandwagon, be sure to climb aboard and strap in while space is still available. One contact said he’s the first and last guy scouts want to talk about when discussing the Brewers’ system. The 18-year-old shortstop may only own a .246/.322/.308 slash line on the season, but he’s caught fire as of late — hitting .340/.435/.415 in the month of May. He projects to stick at shortstop all the way up the ladder and has an advanced approach at the plate.

Just think: he’s 18 years old, playing his first professional season stateside in the difficult Midwest League, and he’s still holding his own? And not only holding his own, but OPS-ing .850+ in May? This guy is the real deal. Next year, we could be talking about Arcia as the Brewers’ number-one prospect, and Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus opines he will be a top 101 prospect in all of baseball.

Tyler Thornburg, RHP, Triple-A Nashville

The first two months of the season can be labelled as nothing other than a disappointment for Thornburg. The Brewers’ starting rotation currently ranks last in the National League with a 5.17 ERA, and Thornburg remains in Triple-A Nashville with a lofty 6.80 ERA.

Nobody seems to know where to place the right-hander — starter or reliever. One contact even said he thought the Brewers were conflicted as to Thornburg’s ultimate role. The 24-year-old hurler has struggled with his fastball command this year, leaving it up in the zone quite often. And without much natural angle to the plate because of his short stature, he has to work down in the strike zone with his fastball to be effective. Otherwise, it gets very straight and hittable — which Brewers fans saw last year in his brief promotion to the majors.

Still, Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospect Nation told me: ”I still believe Thornburg can start at the big league level, he just may need a large chunk of this year to continue refining his game.”

Clint Coulter, C, Class-A Wisconsin

The raw numbers haven’t been pretty for the Brewers’ first-round draft pick in last year’s draft. He’s only hitting .184/.281/.306 with two home runs. Despite that, though, scouts continue to be very encouraged about his ability at the plate. The power potential remains, and he’s shown an ability to drive high-end velocity.

Defensively, it’s been a work in progress. I haven’t talked to anyone who believes Coulter will be able to stick as a catcher at the major-league level. In fact, multiple contacts expressed concern over the Brewers’ keeping him at catcher. The physical and emotional stress catchers experience during development is extraordinary — especially catchers who are spending extra time developing the defensive tools — and multiple contacts wondered if his development would be better served moving him away from catcher now and just let his bat play.

Victor Roache, OF, Class-A Wisconsin

Roache fell to the Brewers with the 28th pick of the 2013 Draft because he severely injured his wrist in his final collegiate season. Because of that injury, the Brewers got a premium talent late in the first round. They got a potential middle-of-the-order bat with plus raw power that will play in either right or left field, and that raw power could eventually develop into 30+ homers in the majors.

The question is whether Roache will be able to hit enough to allow the power to play. He’s shown both power and patience this year, but scouts continue to question his ability to handle quality breaking stuff. His pitch recognition isn’t well-developed at this point. The organization hopes he can become at least a .250 hitter with plenty of walks and homers — which is plenty valuable — but strikeouts will likely remain an issue throughout his professional career.

Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Double-A Huntsville

Many pitchers in the Brewers’ organization have scuffled this spring, but Nelson has moved into the spotlight because he’s one of the top-tier guys who has taken a step forward. He owns a 3.04 ERA in 47.1 innings and the peripherals have been impressive — 9.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.

Although he’s a personal favorite and has performed very well in 2013, one contact cautioned fans to lower their expectations for Nelson. He profiles as a workhorse mid-rotation starter. Nothing more. His third-or-fourth starter grade may be disappointing to some, but his floor appears to be high. Everyone I spoke with said he’s a big leaguer. And for an organization that has struggled to develop starting pitching, that’s encouraging.

Johnny Hellweg, RHP, Triple-A Nashville

Hellweg is interesting because he’s 24 years old and in Triple-A, yet he’s largely considered a project who is still learning how to pitch. The numbers aren’t pretty. He currently has a 4.33 ERA with 33 strikeouts and 33 walks in 43.2 innings. At the same time, he’s reportedly hit triple-digits on the radar gun and goes through stretches where he’s utterly dominant on the mound.

Two separate contacts said they believe he has a chance to stick as a starter, but neither was willing to commit to that stance. At 6-foot-9, his mechanics are very difficult to repeat. His levers are extremely long and can get out of sync in a hurry. This is best exemplified by his May 5th start against Round Rock. He was throwing a no-hitter through three innings and had popped 100 mph. Then, suddenly, Hellweg lost it and walked four hitters in the fourth and couldn’t recover. He was lifted after 3.2 innings, and his final line marred his early performance.

It sounds like Hellweg will probably land in the back-end of the Brewers bullpen in the coming years, possibly as a shutdown closer. Still, he shows flashes of “getting it” as a starter, and I expect the organization to nurture that possibility as much as possible before transitioning him to a bullpen role.

Mitch Haniger, OF, Class-A Wisconsin

Haniger needs to go to Brevard County. He’s currently hitting .295/.401/.511 with 11 doubles, two triples and five home runs. He even has seven stolen bases and hasn’t been caught once. The 22-year-old outfielder needs a bigger challenge than the Midwest League, though the Brewers could be keeping Haniger with the Timber Rattlers in an attempt to keep him with the next group of hitters — much like the Brewers did with the Huntsville Stars in 2008.

Tyrone Taylor, OF, Class-A Wisconsin

When the Brewers drafted Taylor in the second round last year, he was considered an athlete first and a baseball player second. He made some adjustments to his swing last summer, though, and tore through the Arizona League and Pioneer League before succumbing to a shoulder injury.

This year, he’s holding his own in the Midwest League as a 19-year-old outfielder. He’s hitting .240/.275/.370, but he’s driving the baseball with some power and is continuing to hone his baseball skills. He projects well up the middle and should stick as a center fielder. The key is whether he’ll hit enough for it to matter. The early results have been very positive for Tyrone Taylor.

Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Double-A Huntsville

Jungmann was supposed to be a can’t-miss guy coming out of the University of Texas. He was someone who could advance quickly through the Brewers’ system and make an impact at the major-league level. Heck, some draft experts even wondered if the Brewers would move Jungmann to the bullpen to help them in the 2011 postseason race.

Unfortunately, it hasn’t happened that way. He owns a 5.09 ERA in Double-A and only has 20 strikeouts in 40.2 innings. Multiple contacts expressed concern over his inability to miss bats, and nobody has been wowed by his offspeed offerings. He’s been sitting 92-93 mph with the fastball for Double-A Huntsville and has the ability to reach back for more. At this point, though, it seems Jungmann profiles more like a back-end starter (4/5) with one contact wondering if he’s even a big league arm at all.

He’s been working on a new grip on his curveball since last season, so perhaps that’s a reason why his strikeout numbers are so depressed. Eventually, though, he’s going to have to show something. It hasn’t been anything to write home about thus far.

Jorge Lopez, RHP, Class-A Wisconsin

I asked a couple contacts to give me an off-the-radar guy who they liked in the Brewers system. Both mentioned right-hander Jorge Lopez. He’s still sitting in the low-90s with his fastball and can touch 95-96 mph. He also has good feel for his curveball and changeup. The problem is an extreme lack of consistency, which is why he has an 11.64 ERA. Still, he’s striking out almost a batter per inning and still has loads of projectability at only 20 years old.

He may never develop into anything. He may never even reach Double-A. But the right-hander has encouraging raw tools. The numbers just show how raw those tools are right now.

The basic trend continued last night, as the Brewers lost Gallardo’s fourth consecutive start, which was also his second consecutive quality start. In fact, for all the clamoring about Gallardo’s stuff, the righty pitched well since his whipping in St. Louis, hurling five quality starts in his last seven (alongside a 34 K / 18 BB / 4 HR performance in 41.7 IP. When Gallardo has encountered rough stretches over the last month, he has largely limited the damage). If you’re scoffing at the idea of five quality starts in seven starts, or a 3.88 runs average, that’s markedly better than the Miller Park/NL runs average of 4.34; over a full season, that mark is 10 runs better than the league, which is a top rotation performance marker.

I’ve written about this before, so I don’t want to produce a repetitive beat, but when most fans, analysts, and writers mention Gallardo’s fastball velocity, they don’t place that velocity in the context of his other pitches. While our own Ryan and Steve have noted in their “Rounding the Bases” column that Gallardo’s mechanics have become inconsistent over time, those mechanical inconsistencies (and subsequent fastball velocity shifts) have accompanied (a) increased slider selection, (b) increased slider velocity, (c) near-elimination of the change up, and (d) lower curveball velocity. If you follow FanGraphs’s division between “four-seam” and “two-seam” fastballs (or, “primary” and “secondary,” “rising” and “moving” fastballs), Gallardo is notably throwing more of the “secondary” variety this year, compared to previous seasons.

I had the privilege of watching the Brewers’ FOX Game of the Week against St. Louis at the beginning of May, and I noticed something peculiar about Gallardo’s approach. It’s not so much that his fastball lost velocity, or that he was mechanically inconsistent, but that he appeared to be approaching his fastball in a completely different way.

Some of his fastballs were nearly indistinguishable from his hardest sliders, which almost act as cutters (over the last three years, according the TexasLeaguers, an average RHP cutter will run anywhere between 1 MPH and 3 MPH slower than a “primary” fastball). Some of his fastballs almost appeared to “fade” like a change up, or run in against righties. It’s not as though he was throwing a true sinker (like, say, Justin Masterson or Doug Fister, but simply that his fastball wasn’t “straight,” it wasn’t a typical, hard primary fastball (like someone such as Ben Sheets would throw). Since his fastball and slider were so close in velocity, it appeared that Gallardo’s approach focused on movement and location, rather than disrupting a batter’s timing.

Gallardo's spin/movement chart for May 2012...

...Gallardo's spin/movement chart in May 2013

If you follow TexasLeaguers’ (or FanGraphs’) horizontal and vertical movement measurements of Gallardo’s fastballs, the trends in his fastballs show that his primary fastball indeed breaks in on righties more than in previous years. Furthermore, his primary fastball does not “rise” as much. Since pitch f/x measures pitches against a spinless ball of the same speed, the tool can measure not only how a pitch “drops,” but also how a pitcher employs spin to keep a pitch from dropping as much as one might expect (of course we all know that pitches don’t ACTUALLY rise; but, for all intents and purposes, a “rising fastball” effectively challenges a batter’s eyes by not dropping as much as one might expect. Spin can accomplish this effect, if a pitcher uses it that way).

In short, Gallardo is not necessarily throwing a sinker (in fact, I’ve not read one report that says he throws a sinker. Save for an April 26, 2009 article on the Houston Astros’ site). However, he is either (1) approaching his fastballs differently, or (2) suffering from mechanical inefficiencies that cause his fastballs to move differently, or both. Frankly, given Gallardo’s success over the last seven starts, I have a hard time believing that Gallardo’s fastballs are changing due to basic inefficiencies or mechanical inconsistently. The manner in which he employs his fastball and slider suggest that he might be trying to do something different with the pitches.

The next time you hear about Gallardo’s fastball velocity from someone, pay attention to how he’s using his slider and fastballs in tandem, and also pay attention to the speed of his slider. A dip in fastball velocity is not necessarily a bad thing if Gallardo is executing his approach and simply trying to move his fastballs a specific way. Furthermore, if Gallardo effectively uses his hard slider, the increase in his slider velocity could be much more important than the dip in his fastball velocity.

The potential problem is that Gallardo does not have much velocity separation between his main pitches (for instance, more than 75% of Gallardo’s pitches in May are between 86 and 90 MPH, on average). However, even if we think about Warren Spahn‘s great adage that pitching is disrupting a batter’s timing, we can also think about pitching as a chance to “move” or “break” the ball in specific directions and locations. If Gallardo is doing this with his fastballs and slider, his drop in velocity might not be the most important or interesting development in his 2013 campaign.

RESOURCES:
Baseball-Reference. Sports Reference, LLC., 2000-2013.
TexasLeaguers. Trip Somers, 2009-2013.

Other articles or resources linked where cited.

IMAGES:
Gallardo: http://lasordaslair.com/2013/05/20/just-like-old-times-ethier-and-kemp-homer-while-kershaw-shuts-down-brewers/
Spin charts from TexasLeaguers. Trip Somers, 2009-2013.

What follows in an excerpt from the first edition of the Brewsletter, a Milwaukee Brewers newsletter that takes  a deeper look into Brewers topics of the present and past. To buy the 19-page Brewsletter No. 1 click this button.

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Russ Bove spent 11 years scouting for the Milwaukee Brewers. He arrived in 1993, the first of 12 consecutive losing seasons for the Brewers. With high draft picks year-in and year-out it was up to scouts like Bove to make sure something came of them.

But, as 12 years of losing suggests, there were busts aplenty. According to Baseball America, these were Milwaukee’s top prospects of the 1990s:

1990 Greg Vaughn, of
1991 Chris George, rhp
1992 Tyrone Hill, lhp
1993 Tyrone Hill, lhp
1994 Jeff D’Amico, rhp
1995 Antone Williamson, 3b
1996 Jeff D’Amico, rhp
1997 Todd Dunn, of
1998 Valerio De Los Santos, lhp
1999 Ron Belliard, 2b

Tyrone Hill was a pre-Bove selection, a left-handed hurler the Brewers popped with the 15th pick of the 1991 draft. Hill was promising early on, but injuries stopped his career before it could get started. He never progressed past High-A. Jeff D’Amico was similarly injury riddled. He was excellent in 2000, but injuries in subsequent seasons left him a fifth starter at best.

Antone Williamson played 24 major league games. Todd Dunn played 50. Only Ron Belliard didn’t bust – he was an average big leaguer for five years as a Brewer – but his presence atop Milwaukee’s prospect list effectively sums up the situation down on the farm in the millennium’s final year.

Milwaukee had the 10th pick in the 1999 draft – the Brewers of the late 90s were merely bad, not atrocious like the clubs of the early 2000s. The 1998 squad finished at a gentleman’s 74-88. Without much at the farm’s top levels, the Brewers desperately needed to hit at 10.

On April 10th, 1999, Russ Bove headed down to Louisiana to scout a right-handed starting pitcher. From his report:

“Solid, thick body. Powerful lower half. Good athlete. Fastball ranges from 91-93 MPH with heavy boring life. Throws easy. Quick arm. Command of sharp, downer curveball. Good motion on changeup. Keeps ball down. Command of all three pitches. Focused. Good fielder. Outstanding mound presence.”

And the coup de grace:

“No brainer if available at No. 10.”

When Bove wrote “No brainer if available at No. 10,” one has to imagine he didn’t think Sheets would be there. Would the other nine teams in front of the Brewers pass on such an obvious talent? Bove rated all of Sheets’s pitches as average or better already in 1999, with room to grow into ace-level stuff.

Sheets wasn’t going to supplant Josh Hamilton, the consensus No. 1 for the Devil Rays. He wasn’t going to supplant Josh Beckett, the obvious No. 2 pick for the Marlins. Then Sheets lasted through the top-five. Eric Munson, No. 3, played 361 games under replacement-level for Detroit. Corey Myers and B.J. Garbe, a pair of high school position players, never made the majors.

The next four clubs all took pitchers. The Expos picked Josh Girdley; he never reached the majors. Kyle Snyder, the Royals’ pick, threw 93 games of irrelevant relief. Bobby Bradley, the Pirates’ selection, never reached the majors. Finally, the Athletics popped Barry Zito right in front of the Brewers. Although Zito went on to win a Cy Young with Oakland, Bove must have been ecstatic—after all, Bove labeled the lefty a third starter, worthy of an early draft pick, but not on the level of Sheets. And so the Brewers popped Bove’s man at No. 10

Ben Sheets was indisputably the most important Brewer of the early 2000s. He was the only pitcher drafted in the 1990s to last in Milwaukee through the club’s Wild Card run in 2008. (Bill Hall was the only position player, and his career in Milwaukee defined flash in the pan.)

Certainly, the dearth of talent on those early-2000s Brewers amplified his rise to stardom. Milwaukee was aching for any ray of hope. Geoff Jenkins, a solid player but not the impact player hoped for as the number nine overall pick in 1995, plateaued as a hacker without the power to differentiate himself from other steroid era sluggers.Jeromy Burnitz was already 31 years old by 2000. The club had no short-term or long-term solutions in the middle infield. The rotation was even worse – Jeff D’Amico was the only Brewer to post an ERA better than the league average in 1999 or 2000, and we all know how that turned out.

No, Sheets was not going to turn the 2001 Milwaukee Brewers, a team that handed a combined 96 starts to Jamey Wright, Jimmy Haynes and Allen Levrault, into a contender immediately, or even within a year or two. But the 2001 Milwaukee Brewers handed Jamey Wright, Jimmy Haynes and Allen Levrault 96 starts, and in that sense, Sheets inspired the highest of hopes.

He won Milwaukee’s heart with his first half in 2001. He was demoted after two poor starts to begin the season, and once he returned on April 28th, he dominated. From his return start through the All-Star break, Sheets posted a 3.26 ERA—practically Gibsonian in 2001 as the steroid era wreaked havoc on pitcher statistics across the league. Sheets was the first Brewers rookie to make an All-Star team. The Brewers didn’t give Milwaukee much to watch in 2001, their first year in Miller Park, but at least they had Big Ben.

And so it went for about a half-decade, until Jack Zduriencik’s hitters showed up and powered the 2008 Wild Card club. Sheets arrived on the national scene in 2004, when he posted a 2.70 ERA and absurd league-leading 8.25 K/BB over 237 innings for a 67-win club. The 2004 Brewers were the special type of team that could turn this type of performance—the kind we could see winning a Cy Young thanks to Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez in recent years—into a 12-14 season. But this was before mainstream acceptance of win-loss record as a lesser stat, and so Sheets finished just eighth in Cy Young voting.

Sheets could have been a superstar. Would have been a superstar, even, had his body held up.  In 2005, it was vestibular neuritis—effectively persistent vertigo—and a lat strain. In 2006, it was a right shoulder strain that turned into shoulder inflammation. In 2007, it was a middle finger sprain. And in 2008, just as he finished one of his best seasons and helped CC Sabathia carry Milwaukee to their first postseason in 26 years, it was the elbow. Tommy John surgery ended his Brewers career and all but ended his major-league career.

But Sheets should be remembered as more than just what could have been. He was the light at the end of the tunnel. In 2004, as he piled up the strikeouts and consistently dominated National League hitting, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo and Corey Hart were shooting through the minor leagues. Ryan Braun was the club’s first round pick in 2005. The foundation for a competitive team was starting to form, and Ben Sheets was the most visible piece.

Ben Sheets never appeared in a playoff game in a Milwaukee Brewers jersey. It’s one of the biggest shames in the franchise’s history. He gave us a reason to watch as we slogged through the remnants of Bud Selig’s final years of incompetent ownership, and then he led the way in 2008, the year baseball was given new life in Milwaukee. That’s why it’s so fun to go back through the archives and find Russ Bove calling Ben Sheets a no-brainer. He was exactly that for the Brewers, and in return he helped make baseball relevant again in Wisconsin.

* * *

Like what you see? Want to see more? Support the Brewsletter. You’ll also get this issue’s featured article, “John Axford and the Nature of the Closing Beast,” for $1.99. Click the button below to buy now and click here to head to the Brewsletter page and add your e-mail address to our reminder list.

Nashville Sounds: (12-30), 10.0 GB

RHP R.J. Seidel:  (L, 0-1) 5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R (3 ER), 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HR — 5.14 ERA
RHP Jesus Sanchez:  2.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR — 3.18 ERA

1B Hunter Morris:  2-3, HR (7), RBI, R — .242 AVG
SS Blake Davis:  2-3, 2B, SB (4), R — .231 AVG
CF Josh Prince:  2-4, 2B, RBI — .227 AVG

Huntsville Stars: (19-25), 8.5 GB

RHP Andy Moye:  (W, 2-5) 8.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 4.76 ERA
RHP Casey Medlen:  (S, 7) 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 4.60 ERA

CF Rene Tosoni:  1-2, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB, SB (2) — .289 AVG
SS Hector Gomez:  2-4, 2B, R, K — .172 AVG
LF Kentrail Davis:  3-4, R, SB (10) — .267 AVG

Brevard County Manatees: (23-20), 3.0 GB

RHP David Goforth:  (W, 4-4) 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K — 2.79 ERA
RHP Andre Lamontagne:  (H, 3) 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 5.19 ERA
RHP Tommy Toledo:  (S, 3) 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 2.12 ERA

1B Nick Ramirez:  2-3, HR (7), 2 RBI, BB, 2 R — .230 AVG
DH Cody Hawn:  2-3, BB, K — .269 AVG
2B Gregory Hopkins:  1-3, 2B, RBI, BB, R — .241 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: (19-21), 9.5 GB

Game postponed due to lightning.

Prospect of the Day:  RHP Andy Moye (Double-A Huntsville)

It’s been a bit of a struggle for right-hander Andy Moye this season, but he put together a gem on Monday night for the Huntsville Stars. It was his best outing since allowing only one hit and one run over six innings in his first start of the season on April 7. Since then, it’s been a smattering of short starts and bloated run totals.

On Monday, though, Moye handcuffed the Montgomery batting order over eight beautiful innings. He allowed five hits and no walks, and while he only struck out two, he rarely broke a sweat the entire night. It was his first quality start since that same April 7th start and a breath of fresh air for the right-hander who turned some heads in early 2012 with a stellar performance in Appleton (1.45 ERA in 37.1 IP) before struggling in Brevard County to end the year. So, in many ways, Moye’s start on Monday evening was a very welcomed sight and hopefully a harbinger for things to come for the Georgia Southern alum.

Over the past half-decade or so, the way sports media is consumed has changed drastically. The blog form has been the primary engine. It has opened the door for more voices and more perspectives than the mainstream media ever has — and more than the mainstream media is capable of containing, given the constraints of the newspaper format.

With the newspaper and other traditional formats, sports coverage was limited: game recaps, short news and notes stories, and the occasional old-school beat writer opinion column. And that was it. Before the rise of the sports blog, Brewers fans had the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, MLB.com and… well, not much else.

The J-S and MLB.com still provide the foundational access-based coverage, but fans are now presented with more choices than they could possibly hope to consume. Just a few, for consideration: Brew Crew Ball, The Brewers Bar, Miller Park Drunk, The Brewer Nation, Reviewing The Brew and Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball. Some have merged (Disciples of Uecker is basically the old Bernie’s Crew plus a few others at this point), and some have disappeared (like Right Field Bleachers, my first internet home and the reason I didn’t quit blogging after five posts), but Brewers discourse is far more expansive now than we could have imagined a decade ago.

But I still can’t help but feel we have more unexplored territory to cover. The blog form does offer nearly unlimited freedom. I have written so many different things here over the past three-plus years, from game recaps to hardcore analysis to heartfelt goodbyes to off-beat humor and everywhere in between.

If there is one negative to the blog form, however, it is the demand for immediacy. The move of internet publishing models to feature the digestible and the recent (look no further than BuzzFeed and The Huffington Post if you don’t know what I’m talking about) buries ideas that don’t fit the current flow of the news cycle and ideas that can’t fit in 800 words or less.

To that end, I’d like to introduce to you the Brewsletter, a semi-regular — twice monthly is the plan, for now — collection of Milwaukee Brewers thoughts for distribution here at Disciples of Uecker. The first issue contains three articles (including this one), including one feature length (2,000-plus words) and some charts of note.

This is Disciples of Uecker’s first venture into the land of paid content. The Brewsletter will, at least in its early stages, cost $1.99. For your $1.99, you will get some 4,000 words and four pages worth of charts in .PDF format, and you support the creation of future Brewsletters.

In many ways, this blog and many others have surivived because they are free of charge. We as a society, and the younger generation to which I belong in particular, are now used to getting content for free, whether on principle or merely by habit.

But I want to fill that void the blog form currently isn’t filling for Brewers content — longer, deeper, more creative, less newsy, stories living outside of Twitter trends and MLB Memes. I want to dive deep into important Brewers topics. I want to revive old memories. Most importantly, I want to make you think.

The stuff in the Brewsletter isn’t going to race to the top of Google search lists. It isn’t going to get clicks from Bleacher Report or BuzzFeed. As such, ad support won’t be enough to make the Brewsletter a sustainaible, regular item. This issue and subsequent issues will run $1.99 — a small price, I think, for what I believe will be unique and top-notch Brewers content.

For that $1.99, you will get two Milwaukee Brewers pieces totaling nearly 4,000 words. Each issue will contain at least one piece covering current Brewers events and one covering Brewers history. The inagaural issue includes a look at John Axford’s rise and fall as well as Ben Sheets’s role in building the Brewers of today.

Disciples of Uecker is not becoming a pay site. This does not signal the end of free access to any of the features you’re already used to. This is merely an extra project, my way of getting back into covering the Brewers, something I haven’t been able to do as much as I’ve liked over the past year or so. And one article from each Brewsletter will be released here at Disciples of Uecker — you won’t be flying blind.

I want to make the Brewsletter great. I want it to look great. I want it to feel great. I want it to regularly contain the most thoughtful Brewers content in any form. I want it to grow, to include more contributors (who I can pay for their work), more ideas and more perspectives than the rest of the Brewers community can offer.

And I want it to thrive. To do that, I need your support. All it takes is a couple dollars and a couple of clicks.

Not convinced yet? Check back tomorrow for a chance to catch one of the Brewsletter 1 articles, “Ben Sheets: The No Brainer.” Ready to dive in? Head over to the Brewsletter page or buy it now!

Traditional baseball fans know that this slash line is not a particularly good one. All three stats (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) are below the current league average.

.615 OPS /.271 wOBA /68 wRC+

Fans of baseball’s advanced metrics (Sabermetricians, statheads, Saberheads, nerds, number crunchers, or whatever you want to call us) know that this slash line is not very good either, and, also, below the current league average.

Hardcore Brewers fans might know that both of these meager slash lines don’t describe Rickie Weeks’ season — they describe Jonathan Lucroy’s.

Here’s a quick head-to-head comparison of Rickie Weeks’ and Jonathan Lucroy’s season, through both standard and advanced metrics. These numbers, courtesy of Fangraphs, are good through Saturday’s game in St. Louis –

With the Brewers off to a frustrating start, fan anger is rampant at Rickie Weeks for his early season struggles. Yet, Lucroy, whose numbers aren’t that much more impressive, seems to be flying under the radar.

Like many things in life, this may be a product of luck and good timing. Lucroy has had some shining moments, in 2013, to hang his hat on. His sacrifice fly in the season opener lead to a walk-off win, and the Brewers’ first opening day victory since 2008. Lucroy also hit a tenth inning go-ahead home run in St. Louis that gave the Crew a huge win, and began a nine-game winning streak. Lucroy also crushed a Matt Cain curve ball for a home run that prompted this memorable reaction –

Even though Lucroy has only hit three home runs, this year, two of them have been extremely memorable. Meanwhile, Weeks’ three home runs have been, well, just regular home runs.

Of course, a slumping Rickie Weeks looks very different from a slumping Jonathan Lucroy. Because of his high strikeout rate, when Weeks’ goes into a slump it’s easier to see him struggling, which I believe creates a more visceral reaction from fans.

As Weeks struggles, at the plate, we think of what Rickie could have done if he just put the ball in play. Yet, when we watch Lucroy hit into outs, we believe he’s unlucky. Never mind that Weeks has hit into his fair share of bad luck too. Of course, there’s more to BABIP than bad luck. Right now, it’s obvious that neither Weeks nor Lucroy are squaring up balls very well.

When Weeks and Lucroy are locked in, both of them can slap doubles to the right field gap in their sleep. In 346 plate appearances, last year, Lucroy hit 17 doubles — that’s a double 4.9% of the time. This year Lucroy has two doubles in 134 plate appearance – or a double at a rate of only 1.5%. This year, Lucroy is on pace to hit about five doubles, instead of 17, over the same amount of plate appearance.

But, you know what? I’m not here to rag on Lucroy. I don’t have a grand hypothesis that, if the Brewers could only get Lucroy going then, suddenly, their season will turn around. For as much as Weeks and Lucroy have disappointed, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez have both exceeded expectations. Lucroy and Weeks might be “productively challenged,” right now, but neither of them were at the plate with the bases loaded and no outs during the 7th inning of Sunday’s game. That was Segura and Ryan Braun.

I wish I could shift through this mountain of Brewers’ stats and say exactly why this team isn’t playing better (or even achieving their Pythagorean W-L of 18-23). I wish I could explain exactly why David Freese turns into an All Star every time he plays the Brewers. Or why Kyle Lohse’s run support per game (2.1) is only half as much as any other Brewers’ starting pitcher.  Because, right now, for every stat or trend not working in the Brewers’ favor, there’s an intangible element of the game that’s also not on their side.

For example, we all know the Brewers could pitch better. But the Brewers are 17-25 with a 4.57 team ERA while the Tampa Bay Rays are 23-20 with a 4.32 team ERA. Or, for the Saberheads reading, why the Brewers are 17-25 with a 4.29 FIP / 3.96 xFIP and the Rays are 23-20 with a 4.24 FIP / 3.76 xFIP. The difference doesn’t seem fair but it doesn’t have to be. It just is what it is.

Much like how it’s not fair that Weeks is singled out for his poor production while Lucroy isn’t. Sometimes the baseball gods bless a player with memorable home runs and sometimes they don’t. Not that I’m advocating for fans to shift some of their frustration onto Lucroy. Both Weeks and Lucroy are more aware of their on-field issues than any of us could dream. They don’t need to look at their batting average, or wOBA, to know they’re struggling. They’re living that struggle every single day.

So, while failure in baseball might be easy to quantify, it’s not always easy to explain.  Traditional baseball fans will look at the difference between Weeks’ and Lucroy’s batting averages and say that Weeks, clearly, is having the worse season between the two. Saberheads will notice the smaller difference between their wOBA and say the disparity isn’t as great as their averages suggest. Brewers fan will look at both Weeks’ and Lucroy’s numbers and know that they are a small part of a bigger, team problem — losing 25 games during the first quarter of the season.

At that rate, it’s a stat no Brewers fan wants to project out over the rest of the season.

RESOURCES:

GIF courtesy of Getting Blanked — Anatomy of a No-Doubter: Jonathan Lucroy vs Matt Cain

CORRECTIONS:

* An earlier version of this post inaccurately listed Rickie Weeks’ RBI total at 19. Thanks to “Lucas” for bringing this to my attention.

Nashville Sounds: (12-29), 10.0 GB

RHP Frankie De La Cruz:  5.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K — 7.15 ERA
RHP Michael Olmsted:  (BS, 2) 0.1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 6.98 ERA
RHP Rob Wooten:  (L, 0-1) 1.2 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HR — 3.22 ERA

C Blake Lalli:  2-2, HR (2), RBI, BB, R — .316 AVG
CF Josh Prince:  2-5, 2B, 3 RBI, SB (3), K — .211 AVG
SS Blake Davis:  2-4, 3B, RBI, R, K — .218 AVG

Huntsville Stars: (18-25), 9.5 GB

RHP Taylor Jungmann:  (L, 3-5) 7.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 0 K — 5.09 ERA
LHP Daniel Meadows:  2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 0.00 ERA

C Robinzon Diaz:  3-3, 2B — .283 AVG

Brevard County Manatees: (22-20), 3.0 GB

RHP Drew Gagnon:  (L, 3-4) 5.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K — 5.40 ERA
RHP Matt Miller:  1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K — 9.75 ERA
RHP Tyler Cravy:  1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 3.95 ERA

RF T.J. Mittelstaedt:  1-4, HR (2), RBI, R, K — .235 AVG
C Rafael Neda:  1-3, 1B — .103 AVG
CF Chadwin Stang:  1-3, SB (11) — .245 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: (19-21), 9.0 GB

RHP Tyler Wagner:  (L, 4-2) 3.0 IP, 4 H, 6 R (5 ER), 4 BB, 1 K, 2 HR — 3.16 ERA
LHP Michael Strong:  3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 1 K — 3.77 ERA
RHP Martin Viramontes:  2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K — 6.00 ERA

1B Parker Berberet:  3-4, 2B, 3B, R — .269 AVG
SS Orlando Arcia:  2-4, 2B, R, K — .246 AVG
LF Victor Roache:  1-2, 2 BB — .211 AVG

Prospect of the Day:  C Blake Lalli (Triple-A Nashville)

It wasn’t a stellar day on the farm for the Brewers on Sunday, but Blake Lalli continued to rake upon his return to Nashville. He launched his second homer in three games and is now hitting .316/.409/.632 in very limited playing time. With Hunter Morris demanding playing time at first base, Lalli should see the majority of his innings at catcher and designated hitter — though it’s unlikely that he finds himself back in Milwaukee before September call-up time unless something dramatic happens at the trade deadline.

Nashville Sounds: (12-28), 10.0 GB

LHP Zach Kroenke:  (W, 1-6) 6.1 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K — 5.75 ERA
RHP Donovan Hand:  1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K — 2.84 ERA
RHP Rob Wooten:  1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K — 1.31 ERA

DH Hunter Morris:  3-4, 2B, 2 HR (6), 4 RBI, BB, 2 R, K — .238 AVG
LF Caleb Gindl:  4-5, 2B, HR (4), 4 RBI, 2 R, K — .261 AVG
2B Scooter Gennett:  2-5, BB, SB (6), 2 R, K — .315 AVG

Huntsville Stars: (18-24), 8.5 GB

RHP Jimmy Nelson:  (W, 5-2) 5.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HR — 3.04 ERA
LHP Thomas Keeling:  (H, 2) 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 2.63 ERA
RHP Greg Holle:  (S, 3) 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K — 3.80 ERA

1B Jason Rogers:  2-3, HR (7), 3 RBI, 2 R, K — .288 AVG
CF Rene Tosoni:  1-3, HR (3), RBI, R, K — .246 AVG
LF Brock Kjeldgaard:  2-3, 2 RBI, R, K — .266 AVG

RHP Ariel Pena:  (W, 3-3) 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 7 K — 2.95 ERA
RHP Santo Manzanillo:  0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 5.50 ERA

RF Kentrail Davis:  2-4, HR (3), RBI, 2 R — .261 AVG
CF Rene Tosoni:  1-2, RBI, BB — .250 AVG
3B Shea Vucinich:  1-2, 2B, BB, 2 R — .228 AVG

Brevard County Manatees: (22-19), 2.0 GB

LHP Jed Bradley:  3.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K — 3.82 ERA
RHP Chad Pierce:  (W, 2-1) 3.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 3 K — 2.70 ERA
RHP Tommy Toledo:  (S, 2) 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — 2.25 ERA

1B Nick Ramirez:  1-4, HR (6), 2 RBI, BB, R — .226 AVG
CF Chadwin Stang:  1-4, 2B, RBI, R, 2 K — .243 AVG

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: (19-20), 8.0 GB

RHP Eric Semmelhack:  6.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R (3 ER), 1 BB, 3 K — 3.55 ERA
RHP Preston Gainey:  (L, 1-4) 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R (0 ER), 3 BB, 3 K — 6.66 ERA

SS Orlando Arcia:  2-4, HR (1), 2 RBI, BB, SB (7), R — .238 AVG
DH Mitch Haniger:  1-5, HR (5), RBI, R — .296 AVG
C Clint Coulter:  2-5, RBI, R, 3 K — .184 AVG

Prospect of the Day:  1B Hunter Morris (Triple-A Nashville)

Fresh off the 7-day DL after suffering a concussion earlier in the month, Hunter Morris carried the Sounds’ offense with a double and two home runs. It was the type of performance everyone became accustomed to seeing last year with Huntsville. It was nice to see Morris put together a banner day at the plate because it’s mostly been a struggle for the 24-year-old first baseman this year.

The biggest concern for Morris is that he’s only hitting .200/.279/.327 against lefties this year. His .606 OPS against lefties stands in stark contrast to his .922 OPS against righties. He didn’t struggle against left-handed pitching so much last year — and it’s a very small sample — but he cannot be useless against same-side pitching if he wants to be an everyday option for the big-league club next year after the departure of Corey Hart.

Still, Morris had been seeing the baseball a lot better in the week prior to landing on the disabled list, so it’s encouraging to see him return with such fervor.