Game 27 Thought: Does Doug Davis’s Luck Turn Tonight? | Disciples of Uecker

Disciples of Uecker

We'd like to go to the Playoffs, that would be cool.

Doug Davis has struck out 24 batters in 22 innings. He’s walked 10 batters and allowed 3 home runs, which is a few more than you would want. Davis has induced ground balls on nearly 50% of balls in play against him. Simply put, he should not have an 8.87 ERA right now – he’s pitched more like a 3.90-4.20 ERA pitcher, as his 4.16 FIP and 3.88 xFIP suggest.

If you watched his start against San Diego, you’ll understand why his ERA is so high – he’s getting ridiculously unlucky on balls in play. Right now, his BABIP sits at a ridiculous .473. That’s simply unsustainable – yes, Davis is a soft-tosser, but he has never finished a season with a BABIP above .335. His career mark is .312, and we should expect him to pitch towards that mark as the season progresses. If he can keep drawing ground balls, Davis should have a very successful rest of the season, as long as his defense can do some work behind him. Hopefully that starts tonight.


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