Monday Morning Grab Bag | Disciples of Uecker

Disciples of Uecker

We'd like to go to the Playoffs, that would be cool.

Monday Morning Grab Bag

By on June 23, 2014

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Colorado Rockies 6-5 on Sunday, completing a three game sweep and capping off a 6-1 road trip. The game also marked the end of a stretch where the Crew played fifteen of eighteen games away from Miller Park, a run they walk away from with an outstanding twelve and six record.

It wasn’t a cleanly played series by any stretch of the imagination. The series saw a total of seven errors, five belonging to the home team, but that was really only a fraction of the mistakes actually made. The Brewers allowed 19 runs total over the three games, though more than half of that came on Friday night when the stadium was playing at its most generous.

Friday night also happened to be Marco Estrada’s turn in the rotation. In fairness to him, a number of his seven earned runs really rightfully belonged on the defense’s ledger. He did strike out seven batters and allow only one walk, but also gave up ten hits and one very long home run. We’ve written quite a bit here about Estrada’s struggles, and the potential for replacement by Jimmy Nelson. Any thought that Estrada might lose his spot in the rotation before his turn comes up again Wednesday probably went out the window when Nelson started in Utah Saturday night, but the question isn’t going to go away.

Sunday night, I was curious to see where people stood on the issue, so I asked twitter:

The results were predictable.  Well at least mostly predictable: 

Jimmy Nelson 30
Marco Estrada 6
Rickie 1
Jack Moore 1

When a pitcher struggles for as long as Estrada has and there is a seemingly viable replacement available at AAA, calling for a change is a pretty natural thing. I was mostly curious to see what the defenses for leaving Estrada in the rotation would be at this point. One justification for leaving well enough alone showed up in a couple of different tweets and it seems worth addressing: 

This idea of not wanting to throw rookies into a pennant race is something that certainly seems reasonable, especially on the surface, but does it really hold up? All three NL Central teams that made the playoffs last year prominently featured rookie starters, with two of them seeing critical action in the postseason. The argument could be made that Jimmy Nelson doesn’t come with the same “prospect status” as the likes of Gerrit Cole, Michael Wacha, and Tony Cingrani. Nelson has been so good, and has grown so much as a prospect, though, that it hardly seems outlandish to think it’s quite possible he can do better than Estrada, given the chance.

It seems inevitable that Nelson will be back up again this season in one capacity or another. He’ll almost certainly pitch out of the bullpen come September if no opportunity presents itself in the rotation before then. It would seem a waste to limit him to mere relief, though, if he truly is ready to shoulder the load of starting every fifth day. Nelson threw 162 1/3 total innings last year between AA, AAA, and MLB, and has thrown 96 innings thus far this year, so total innings shouldn’t be an issue until he gets up somewhere around 200.

***

Moving on to another subject, it’s come up now and then over the past few weeks how this year’s Brewers team compares with the 2011 squad. There are lots of different ways one can look at that question. On a team level, the offense is even stronger now than it was in 2011 in terms of runs scored per game against the league average. The pitching isn’t quite as good, though a good portion of that difference really comes down to the Wei-Chung Wang factor.

On a player by player level, there are some pretty interesting things to be gleaned by comparing the rosters. From each club, I selected the 10 position players with the most plate appearances and the 10 pitchers with the most innings pitched. For 2014, I expanded the pitchers list to 11 because I didn’t want to leave out Rob Wooten’s contribution thus far.

11 Brewers 14 Brewers
Name G wOBA wRC+ WAR (162) Name G wOBA wRC+ WAR (76) WAR (162)
R Braun 150 0.426 171 7.2 C Gomez 68 0.401 155 3.5 7.5
P Fielder 162 0.410 160 4.9 J Lucroy 70 0.404 158 3.4 7.2
C Hart 130 0.376 137 3.7 S Gennett 68 0.352 122 1.8 3.8
N Morgan 119 0.344 115 3.6 R Braun 57 0.355 124 1.5 3.2
R Weeks 118 0.357 124 3.3 A Ramirez 51 0.356 125 1.5 3.2
C Gomez 94 0.296 82 1.9 M Reynolds 63 0.312 95 1.4 3
J Lucroy 136 0.311 92 1.3 K Davis 69 0.350 121 1.3 2.8
Y Betancourt 152 0.281 72 0 J Segura 72 0.274 68 0.6 1.3
M Kotsay 104 0.309 91 0 R Weeks 56 0.323 102 0.3 0.6
C McGehee 155 0.275 68 -0.2 L Overbay 56 0.284 75 -0.4 -0.9
Name IP ERA FIP WAR (162) Name IP ERA FIP WAR (76) WAR (162)
Z Greinke 171.2 3.83 2.98 3.6 K Lohse 102 3.09 3.59 1.5 3.2
Y Gallardo 207.1 3.52 3.59 3.2 M Garza 94 4.02 3.61 1.3 2.8
S Marcum 200.2 3.54 3.73 3.2 W Peralta 95.1 3.02 3.92 0.9 1.9
J Axford 73.2 1.95 2.41 1.8 W Smith 35 1.03 2.25 0.9 1.9
R Wolf 212.1 3.69 4.29 1.8 Z Duke 28.2 1.57 1.79 0.8 1.7
C Narveson 161.2 4.45 4.06 1.6 Y Gallardo 91.2 3.34 4.09 0.6 1.3
K Loe 72 3.5 2.80 1 F Rodriguez 37.1 2.17 3.03 0.5 1.1
M Estrada 92.2 4.08 3.67 0.8 R Wooten 23.1 4.63 2.65 0.3 0.6
L Hawkins 48.1 2.42 2.76 0.7 T Thornburg 29.2 4.25 3.76 0.1 0.2
S Mitre 33 3.27 4.36 -0.1 B Kintzler 27.1 3.62 4.91 -0.4 -0.9
M Estrada 89.2 5.22 5.76 -0.8 -1.7

On the offensive side, we have a couple of measures of overall output (wOBA and wRC+) and WAR. On the pitching side, there is ERA and FIP, along with WAR again. Since 2011 is already over and 2014 is not, I had to convert WAR over the first 76 team games into what it would be if the players played at that same level and as frequently over 162 games. Both the present WAR (WAR 76) and projected numbers (WAR 162) are given for 2014.

Looking at the offense, the first thing that jumps out is how much more depth the 2014 squad possesses. In 2011, the team had one player putting up MVP-type WAR numbers in Ryan Braun. This year, the team has a pair of guys with legitimate MVP cases from a WAR perspective. Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez were both on that 2011 team, but have so improved in the time since then as to be barely recognizable as the same players statistically.

The depth really stands out as well. In 2011, the Brewers had five hitters produce more than two wins. This year’s team has seven position players currently on pace to put up more than two wins. That 2011 team also had three significant players put up replacement level or worse performances, against only one in 2014.

On the pitching side, the 2011 club did have an obvious advantage at the top of the rotation over the current club. The 2014 team is also being held back, at least somewhat, by the sub-par performance of Marco Estrada. Brandon Kintzler’s WAR is a bit of an odd outlier, because he routinely out pitches the peripheral numbers it’s based upon, but I didn’t want to exclude him because he fell within the top 10 pitchers in innings pitched.

So what do you think, looking at those numbers? Is the 2014 club’s advantage on the position player side enough to offset the edge the 2011 club had in its pitchers? Let us know below in the comments.

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Comments

Tell us what do you think.

  1. BrewersAA says: June 23, 2014

    I have a theory on Marco, might not even be close, but it would make sense to me. I believe it would be in the brewers best interest to let him righten the ship in the big as long as the team is still winning and still in first place. Nelson would surely be an upgrade at this point, but replacing him with Nelson nets the brewers zero return on their Estrada investment. If I’m the GM and I see that Nelson taking estrada’s rotation spot as inevitable, but I’m still winning and lead the division, I want to try to get Estrada hot here before the deadline so I can bring something back for him. If you demote him now he likely fades into obscurity, if you strike lightening and get him to the end of last seasons form for a stretch for the next couple weeks you get a chance to upgrade the rotation of a first place team and add a guy to the system. That would make sense to me, don’t know how likely it is, but it would make sense and if DM showed me he had that kind of an emphasis on both winning and sustaining I might start to like him more!

    • Josh says: June 23, 2014

      I hope DM is thinking this way, it really doesn’t make sense to replace him now until he really starts affecting the team’s success. I hope Estrada can get back to form and has trade value come July.

      • Ryan Topp says: June 23, 2014

        Oh, I do think he’s affected the team’s success. Since May first, Estrada started 6 of the Brewers 22 losses, despite the fact that he was getting 5.8 runs per game of support.

        As for trade value, I wouldn’t be looking to trade Estrada. They need the pitching depth and I like what he offers in the bullpen because of how effective he is the first time batters see him in a game.

        • BrewersAA says: June 24, 2014

          Ryan, I don’t disagree that he have affected the teams success. I guess my thinking is that they have maintained first place, so the affect has been marginal.

          I also agree about the value he has in the pen. I guess where I struggle with the big picture is that I have always seen the key to small market success is developing pitching. If you can develop pitching you can content consistently with any payroll. The problem that I see is that the brewers seemingly have finally accomplished this, but the other half of the equation is that developing the pitching allows you to trade your established guys for prospects to continually load your farm. But, if you develop and are unwilling to trade from your premium strength you will never seek to low cost reward of your labors and never advance to a sustainable model. So, even though I like Estrada in the pen, I like what an Estrada that is on (like the second half of last year) brings back in a trade much better. The difference between Estrada in the pen and Fiers in the pen is very marginal IMO. look at these trades from last season.

          Houston Astros trade RHP Bud Norris and an international signing bonus slot to the Baltimore Orioles for OF L.J. Hoes, LHP Josh Hader and a 2014 competitive balance pick.

          San Diego Padres trade LHP Joe Thatcher, RHP Matt Stites and 2014 competitive balance pick to the Arizona Diamondbacks for RHP Ian Kennedy.

          In 2012 Dempster brought back kyle hendricks and christian villanueva.

          Brandon League got leon landry and logan bawcom.

          Brad lincoln for travis snider.

          Brett Myers for Blair Walters and Matt Heidenreich.

          I think these are all at least comparable to Estrada in one way or another. I would take anything close to any one of these for Estrada. I think that value of any of these trades would be far greater than the value of Estrada over Fiers in the pen as a long man. I hope I articulated this right, does what I am saying make sense?

  2. Greg Royce says: June 23, 2014

    While I like the consistency of Lohse, playoff success is often based on pitching dominance. Who is going to step up as the Brewer ace? How do we stack up against the Dodgers or the Cardinals?

    • Nicholas Zettel says: June 23, 2014

      Lohse has a claim as the top RHP in the last 4 NL seasons, or at least Top 5. That’s way better than consistency, and I’d say he’s as close to “dominant” as one can get without being Kershaw.

      Dodgers and Cardinals both have better overall pitching staffs, but Giants and Cardinals have proven teams can win Championships with offense. Pitchers just need to hold ‘em close.

  3. Grant says: June 23, 2014

    Shawn Marcum ran out of gas in 2011 and torpedoed the Brewers WS chances. So while he was great in the regular season he was a non-factor (or worse) in the playoffs.

    I know fielding factors into WAR, but its worth reiterating how much better the defensive is (SS in particular, but the whole infield really)

    For this year, I think the Brewers will trade for Wang and ship him down. That will allow the Crew to move Marco to long relief (he’s usually good the first time through a lineup) and bring Nelson up. The Brewers have shown they are willing to keep Wang on the roster, so the Pirates have little leverage and may let him go cheap.

  4. Beau says: June 23, 2014

    The Brewers should put Marco in the bullpen as a long reliver. Opposing batters hit .180 against him the first time through the lineup which is excellent. He gets killed the second and third times around. This way you can bring up Nelson and use Marco in a matter that plays towards his strenghs.

  5. Matt T says: June 23, 2014

    The big difference between the 2 teams has been the bandwagon. Have you ever heard more people talk with more confidence that this is still the Cardinals’ division to lose? How many games over .500 do they need to be before people start addressing the fact that there is only 1 more consistant ballclub in baseball. And the Brewers have already run through some tought parts of the schedule with a great result and some sub-par performances/injuries.

  6. Nicholas Zettel says: June 23, 2014

    It’s interesting how both staffs have such a disjoint between WAR and actual pitching contributions. In 2011, Wolf and Marcum were the best pitchers. But, Greinke gets the WAR-nod, despite allowing an average/slightly below average number of runs.

    This year, the disjoint once again finds WAR favoring starters that are below average (Garza) and not favoring above average pitchers (Gallardo). It would be interesting to find the number of seasons in which a playoff team features prominent FIP-outplaying seasons.

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