Dec112011

Three Futures for Ryan Braun

If you’re reading this, you know Ryan Braun has tested positive for performance enhancing drugs. You also know that he is currently in the process of appealing the result, and has vehemently pleaded his innocence. Until we learn the results of the appeal, there really isn’t anything new or productive we can say. Thankfully for you, however, I was able to use the Disciples of Uecker TARDIS to travel to three different future timelines and retrieve the commentary I ran in each, thereby bringing you tomorrow’s news today. Enjoy:

Timeline 1

That breeze you felt earlier was the collective sigh of relief let out by Brew Crew Nation when Ryan Braun was found officially and undeniably innocent of the charge of PED use leveled against him. Not only does this mean the Brewers won’t lose him for a 50 game suspension, it more importantly means that the face of their franchise will not find his legacy irrevocably tainted. While it is unfortunate that news of the false positive was leaked when it never should have been known, thankfully, the circumstances surrounding the test clearly removed Braun from any suspicion. Drug tests are occasionally inaccurate, and those of us who trusted Ryan Braun more than a test found their faith justified. What could have become a stain that tarnished a reputation is instead a bizarre footnote in a career that will hopefully go on to be considered among the game’s greatest.

Now I know how truly grateful I should be that the team’s biggest problem is finding corner infielders.

Continue reading »

Dec102011

Ryan Braun Facing 50 Game Suspension For Performance Enhancing Drugs

In an utterly devastating development for the Milwaukee Brewers, news has emerged Saturday night that Ryan Braun will face a 50 game suspension for the use of performance enhancing drugs.

Could we have seen this coming? Braun, the 2011 National League Most Valuable Player, entered training camp with about 15 pounds of extra muscle in his lower half. He posted by far his best offensive season to date, with a .332/.397/.597 batting line, 33 home runs, 109 runs scored, and 111 runs batted in. He showed exceptional power to all fields and looked to be a completely new player. These things can happen at age 27 without the assistance of steroids — there was very little suspicion of any foul play with Braun, already on the brink of superstardom, prior to this report. Now, any accomplishment by Braun, future or past, will be tainted.

Beyond just the impact on Braun, this will be a huge test for the 2012 Milwaukee Brewers, who may have their status as contenders revoked with the loss of their star. Wins above replacement tells us that 50 games of Braun, even last season, may only add up to two-to-three wins, but given Braun’s importance to the team, it could easily be more. Even so, three games may be the difference in what looks to be an exceptionally tight NL Central race.

As more details come out, we will have more coverage.

Dec082011

Milwaukee Adds Best Remaining Shortstop In Gonzalez

Despite the common reaction, the Milwaukee Brewers franchise did not spontaneously burst into flames upon Francisco Rodriguez’s acceptance of arbitration Wednesday night. Instead, the Brewers sprung to action, filling their hole at shortstop with arguably the best option available on the market, Alex Gonzalez. Gonzalez signed to a one-year deal with a vesting option for 2013 (terms undisclosed as of this writing) as the Winter Meetings closed Thursday.

For the blind or the lazy, this deal may hardly seem like an upgrade over Yuniesky Betancourt. The two are indeed very similar hitters, and Brewer fans may get as incensed by Gonzalez’s out-making ways as they did by Betancourt. Gonzalez hit .242/.270/.372 in 2011, disturbingly similar to Betancourt’s .252/.271/.381 performance with Milwaukee last season.

Continue reading »

Dec062011

The Milwaukee Brewers Shortstop Situation

Jerry Hairston Jr., one of the players who sparked the Brewers’ late season surge to the top of the NL Central as well as their NLDS victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks, will not be back next season. He signed a two-year, $6 million dollar contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of Monday’s Winter Meetings.

As big an impact as Hairston made down the stretch, there is a reason this is his first multi-year contract in his entire career. Hairston is a career .258/.326/.371 hitter, and as good as that looks now, we must account for how much of that career was spent in eras of much higher offense. The all-encompassing statistic wRC+ does so, and Hairston ranks at a well-below-average 87 on that scale. Versatility counts for something, yes, but only so much.

Make no mistake, the Brewers could have used Hairston as a utility man to shore up the weak left side of the infield. With Craig Counsell also out of the picture, the Brewers need to find not one but two men who can handle shortstop by the start of the season, and Hairston may have been one of the better options available to fill that role.

Although utility players don’t grow on trees, replacing Hairston can be done. Unfortunately, the organization is bare when it comes to up the middle players — for as good a glove as Eric Farris possesses, there is no reason to believe he can hit well enough to warrant major league playing time yet, and Zelous Wheeler simply isn’t ready yet.

The solution at shortstop is simple if the Brewers decide to pony up for Jimmy Rollins. Then the Brewers can simply troll the market for a Willie Bloomquist (or even, gasp, Yuniesky Betancourt) type and call it a winter at the position. However, things get more complicated in the rather likely situation the Phillies do what it takes to retain Rollins’s services, or the situation in which the Brewers aren’t willing to offer the eight-figures over the three or four years necessary.

The highest profile shortstop remaining beyond Rollins is Rafael Furcal, a current target of the Brewers. However, he wouldn’t be enough by himself — he has failed to play even 100 games in three of the last four seasons. That means the Brewers will have to dive into the secondary market at some point. It seems the best option remaining there is Alex Gonzalez, most recently of the Atlanta Braves. Gonzalez has a bat disturbingly similar to that of Betancourt, owning a .247/.291/.399 career line. However, he is widely regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in the league, a far cry from the lead-footed Betancourt.

The market is thin beyond Gonzalez and Furcal, and the backup option is likely to be underwhelming. Ronny Cedeno, Jack Wilson and Nick Punto all have the ability to play at least replacement level baseball at shortstop and should come relatively cheap. Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria have names that bore success in the past but little else.

It is unfortunate the Brewers will not have Hairston available as a utility man next season, as his versatility would fit a huge hole on the roster. But chances are Hairston’s best day as a Brewer were already beyond him. As unimpressive as some of the options presented above may be, the Brewers should be able to replace his performance as they fill out the left side of the infield for 2012.

Nov222011

Ryan Braun Wins National League MVP

Ryan Bruan is the 2011 National League Most Valuable Player.

The debate between his season and Matt Kemp’s season will rage in internet baseball communities, but then settle down. As I wrote this morning, it wouldn’t have made Braun’s season any less spectacular if Kemp had won the award, and the reverse shouldn’t apply now that Braun has won.

It is a fitting close to 2011 for Braun, who by a number of metrics posted the best offensive season in Brewers history. An MVP award is the perfect cherry on top.

Prince Fielder finished in third place behind Kemp. John Axford also received 17 votes in recognition of his excellent season out of the bullpen. Full balloting can be seen here.

Nov222011

Ryan Braun And The MVP

The National League Most Valuable Player award will be announced Tuesday afternoon. I believe Ryan Braun will be the winner.

At the end of the regular season — when the Baseball Writers Association of America receives the ballots — I was unsure if the award would go to Braun or Matt Kemp of the Dodgers. Braun put up arguably the best offensive season in Brewers’ franchise history and was the lynchpin of the team’s first National League Central championship. Despite doing it on a losing team, Kemp had a fantastic year himself, earning an eight-year, $160 million dollar contract just a couple weeks ago. Suitably, at $20 million per year, the Brewers and Dodgers will each be paying their star outfielders similar sums in the latter half of the decade.

Who deserves the MVP award? The real, boring answer is they both do. There are coherent, reasonable arguments for both players. Braun’s raw batting numbers were better. His .332 batting average, .597 slugging percentage, .433 wOBA and 179 wRC+ were all better than Kemp, with the last two being the most accurate measures of offensive production available. Kemp did hit four more home runs and steal seven more bases, but he did so in 60 extra plate appearances.

As such, the difference at the plate is small enough where the value of defense clearly comes into play. Neither Kemp nor Braun is particularly good at their positions, but Kemp patrols center field while Braun plays the much easier left field. When it comes to total value produced on the field, ignoring any other contextual differences, Kemp’s defensive advantage combined with the 11 extra games played is enough to push him over the top. FanGraphs’s WAR favors Kemp 8.7-7.8 and Baseball-Reference’s favors Kemp 10.0-7.7.

Whatever. WAR is imperfect, park effects aren’t completely agreed upon, fielding stats are unrefined at best and garbage at worst, et cetera. But I am inclined to agree: Matt Kemp was slightly better than Ryan Braun in 2011. I think most of the award voters feel this way too. But it hasn’t ever simply come down to who was better — especially not with the BBWAA voting on the awards. The electorate always finds a way to bring in another factor, whether it’s the quality of the player’s team, his clutch ability, if he’s nice — something.

Many of the decisions the electorate have made aren’t justifiable. Juan Gonzalez didn’t deserve the 1996 MVP award. Michael Young didn’t deserve a first place AL MVP this season.

But when things are so close that the discussion comes down to the vagaries of park factors and UZR, we are venturing into the clear land of opinion — not only opinions on the value produced by the players, but also of what defines value. I would certainly understand of the BBWAA decides the merits of Matt Kemp’s 2011 outweigh the merits of Ryan Braun’s 2011 on the field. I also would understand if they decide the fact that Braun’s campaign boosted the Milwaukee Brewers to a National League Central championship pushes him over the top. At least in my opinion, both decisions are fully justifiable.

Having followed the actions of the BBWAA for some years now, it is clear that if the option to award the elite player on the playoff team presents itself in the MVP voting, they will take it. Even if a similar or better option who was on the couch in October is around, like Matt Kemp this year, the writers typically value the playoff performer. Just look at yesterday’s selection of Justin Verlander over Jose Bautista (my pick) or Jacoby Ellsbury for the AL MVP award.

Matt Kemp deserves recognition for his season. So does Ryan Braun. Fans of either side should not be bothered by tomorrow’s decision, regardless of the direction. Trophies are nice, but a second-place finish hardly invalidates the accomplishments of an entire season. It will probably be Ryan Braun walking out with the trophy, and, as with every other MVP candidate, the final distinction will be some factor outside of his control. But hardware is hardware, and Ryan Braun, the Brewers, and their fans will, I predict, be the ones enjoying it this afternoon.

Oct212011

The Cloud Is Also Made of Silver

It’s almost unfair to be a fan of a professional sports team.  There’s no reciprocity involved, no give and take, no mutual understanding.  It’s just me, this sad bundle of humanity watching helplessly with bug-eyed desperation as better, stronger men fight among themselves for a trophy that marks one group, ultimately, as the particular odd group of mortals who happened to get their stuff together at the right time to beat another suddenly lesser odd group of mortals.

A baseball season is an inevitably complicated thing.  Even the best teams will have awful games where they look –for three or four hours—like everything that came before was luck, or a ruse, or maybe the result of a strange baseball conspiracy.

These outlier games happen for many reasons, if they even happen for any reason at all.  It often feels like starting pitching is the root cause: Shaun Marcum was drilled three games in a row in the postseason after making a case for ace status up through September… and Dave Bush almost threw a no hitter.  Three times.

Or, maybe, the core of the lineup starts to collectively mistake the batter’s box for the tee end of a driving range, big bats magically reduced to the size of a novelty pen.

It would be easy, then, to write off the Brewers’ mini-implosion in the NLCS with one of many clichés.  The Cardinals were on the upswing, the Brewers weren’t.  The Cardinals have been there before, the Brewers haven’t.  Nyjer Morgan’s antics made God mad at us, and Albert Pujols wears a gold cross around his saintly neck.  (I guess he doesn’t actually wear a gold cross, but it’s easy to imagine one there.)

We project a sense of inevitability onto a finished season only because that’s the way it played out, so anything you can say that frames it compellingly is likely to stick.  These judgments are always made retrospectively because up until your team has played its last game, there are just feelings or predictions and none of them are definitively true.

Hence, during the NLDS –sometime around the second grand slam against a Brewers starter in the space of two games– I thought, “Well, at least I’m going to get to watch them lose Game 5 in person.”

I’m kind of a negative person.  Hence, trying to find the silver lining on a cloud that doesn’t exist yet.

As it turns out, there was an actual game to be played, and my depressive sad sack moping had nothing to do with it, beyond framing my experience of it.  The 10th inning walkoff end to that game turned out to be one of the more purely joyful moments I’ve ever experienced, sports-related or not.  It was triumphant, and it felt unbelievably important, even though the Brewers hadn’t actually won anything yet.

All of this is to say that we choose what a team means to us, and by extension what a season means.  If I had walked into Game 5 expecting a blowout –or assuming it—I may have left disappointed, perhaps a bit concerned.  Instead, I came to it with a little bit of dread, and slightly more hope, and left whooping like an idiot.

Similarly, I came to this season expecting another disappointment.  The Brewers looked a little like Lehman Brothers, just another over-leveraged, big risk monster doomed by circumstances and crazy management.  But I’d argue now that anyone who calls this season anything less than a success has a fundamentally flawed understanding of what the Milwaukee Brewers have become: an oft-frustrating, but winning baseball team.

That said, I’ve taken something of a break from my near-obsessed consumption of Brewers-related journalism, in part because I sometimes hate sports journalism.  Not because there’s anything flawed or corrupt about it –although there might be, and probably is– but because it so frequently sacrifices what is compelling and beautiful on the altar of winning.  (I am still the king of metaphors!)

Sports journalism has become the province of persons who are almost embarrassed to cheer for personalities over talent, talent over results, or ecstatic truth over wins and profit.  Those who still value the beauty of it usually fail to do so articulately, or err on the side of viciousness and sarcasm.  Not that I’m a stranger to viciousness or sarcasm, but I do think the prevalence of those traits has forced a kind of mass retreat to oft-flawed analytics, even if analytics should be a means to enjoyment, not an end in themselves.

I think it’s important to frame this season detached from its results because this team is going to look pretty similar next year, and however much folks might be inclined to dismantle a “loser,” that’s obviously insane.  The Brewers were simply an incredibly fun, hugely likable team that failed to win a pennant or a championship; but we risk turning them into the period on a poorly written sentence, an afterthought to a season now ultimately highlighted by some other, stodgier Central Time Zone squad.

The real, important truth of all this is that the Brewers were an experiment that mostly worked, a mixture of great top-of-the-roster hitting, mostly good-to-great pitching, and barely adequate fielding.  Melvin looked at the market, figured that teams were paying too much for elite fielding, and decided not to pay for it.  Yeah, Grienke and Marcum looked less than elite in the playoffs.  Did you enjoy watching them the rest of the season?  I know I did.  Are you looking forward to watching them next season?  I know I am.

My family has had partial season tickets for as long as I can remember, but it didn’t occur to me until a few weeks ago that this represents an investment in a team’s future, a sort of gamble that the hours spent swilling overpriced beer and fried garbage will result in a net emotional gain.

It’s an investment, too, in the chance that once in a while that team will make the postseason, and you’ll get first crack at a chance to see that team play games of an oversized, historical importance, and maybe even win a few.  I don’t feel ripped off.

Oct192011

The History of Nelson Cruz

With Nelson Cruz about to start for the Texas Rangers in Game One of the World Series, I figured it would be worth it to post this reminder of Nelson Cruz’s wildly twisting road to the Major Leagues.

Upon seeing former Brewers farmhand Nelson Cruz rake in the playoffs – he’s hitting .371 with 4 HRs – it’s easy to turn around and criticize the Brewers for trading him away. Cruz was a part of the Carlos Lee trade that brought in Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench, and Laynce Nix – not exactly a shining moment in Brewers history – but when we look at Nelson Cruz’s career path, it will perhaps shed some light on why Cruz was included in that deal.

All transaction data taken from Cruz’s SBNation player page. All minor/major league stats from Baseball-Reference

1998
- 2/17
Signed as an undrafted free agent by the New York Mets
- No minors data available; played in Dominican leagues until 2000

2000
- 8/30
Traded from the New York Mets to the Oakland Athletics for IF Jorge Velandia

2001
- Minors: RK
23 G, .250/.283/.409

2002
- Minors: A-
63 G, .276/.316/.397

2003
- Minors: A
119 G, .238/.292/.430

2004
- Minors: A+
66 G, .345/.407/.582
- Minors: AA
67 G, .313/.377/.542
- Minors: AAA
4 G, .231/.286/.538
- 10/15
Contract purchased by Oakland Athletics
- 12/15
Traded by Oakland Athletics with P Justin Lehr to the Milwaukee Brewers for IF Keith Ginter

2005
- 3/18
Optioned to AAA Nashville
- Minors: AAA
60 G, .269/.382/.490
- Minors: AA
68 G, .306/.388/.577
- 8/17
Recalled by MLB Milwaukee
- Majors
8 G, .200/.429/.400

2006
- 3/25
Optioned to AAA Nashville
- Minors: AAA
104 G, .302/.378/.528
- 7/28
Recalled to MLB Milwaukee
Traded by Milwaukee Brewers with OF Carlos Lee to Texas Rangers for RP Francisco Cordero, OF Kevin Mench, OF Laynce Nix, P Julian Cordero.
- Majors
41 G: .223/.261/.385

2007
- Majors
96 G: .235/.287/.384
- 7/5
Optioned to AAA Oklahoma
- Minors: AAA
44 G, .352/.428/.698

2008
-3/29
Designated for assignment by Texas Rangers
-4/3
Clears waivers, outrighted to AAA Oklahoma
- Minors: AAA
103 G, .342/.429/.695
- 8/25
Contract purchased by Texas Rangers
- Majors
31 G, .331/.421/.609

2009
- 7/14
Plays in MLB All-Star Game
- Majors
128 G, .260/.332/.524

2010
- Majors
108 G, .318/.374/.576
- 10/6
Appears in first career playoff game, homers off David Price

Obviously, it’s disappointing that Nelson Cruz is doing this for a team other than the Brewers, but two other teams have traded him for a much lower return and the Rangers exposed him to all 30 teams in 2008. Cruz’s total lack of big league performance through age 27 was worrisome for the Rangers and apparently the rest of the league shared that sentiment. Hindsight is 20/20, and now we see Cruz as one of the better slugging outfielders in the MLB. However, we’re not that far removed from the thought of Cruz as the quintessential AAAA player. It’s really not fair to put blame on the Brewers front office for including him in the Carlos Lee trade after the fact – there’s certainly an argument to be made that it was a poor choice, but using his MLB stats from 2008 on to prove that is fallacious.

Oct162011

The Beast Mode Brewers Will Live On

The Milwaukee Brewers’ season is over. With a 12-6 loss at Miller Park on Sunday night, the Brewers have been eliminated from the 2011 postseason. This year had more fireworks and more victories than all but one year in club history but for the 41st time in 41 tries, the Milwaukee Brewers will not bring home a World Series Championship.

An embarrassing Game Six to end the season will leave a sour taste in many mouths and the wrong picture in the eyes of those who did not watch this team all year. Please, do not let that be your lasting memory of this team.

Think back to 2010. This was the biggest moment at Miller Park in 2010:

That is Trevor Hoffman picking up his 600th save. It was a pretty cool moment, by itself, I guess. But it was not a cool moment if you watched him suffer and slog through a season with all his talent sapped by Father Time. And yet, here we are, players carrying him off the field with most of the bleachers empty. It was more a sigh of relief. And this was the defining moment for the Milwaukee Brewers of 2010.

The 2010 team was the kind where you could get excited about watching a Jim Edmonds or a George Kottaras play baseball. Of course, Rickie Weeks had a breakout season and Ryan Braun was excellent as usual. But the Brewers simply didn’t offer anything compelling except to baseball junkies like myself — I’ll watch Dave Bush pitch even if it kills me, dammit.

And this is the theme of Brewers baseball. There are the exceptions. I’m told 1982 was pretty awesome, but that was seven years before I was born. 1992 was a good season too even if the Brewers didn’t reach the playoffs — they were within two games. And then there was 2008, a season that bore a new generation of Brewers fans. But the rest of the time? Slim pickings, and the only way to slog through is to develop a very creepy love of Ben Sheets.

(I still miss you, Ben.)

OK. Let’s reel it in.

We have forced memories from these seasons of old, but we have real memories from this season. We have the sweep of the Cardinals in June to announce the Brewers’ true presence as National League contenders. We have the entire month of August, the 22-3 run, probably the best run of baseball we will ever see in Milwaukee and one of the best single-month runs in recent history.

We had Beast Mode. We saw Nyjer Morgan win over a town. We saw Ryan Braun play MVP-level baseball. We saw Prince Fielder hit for power as he always does on what was almost certainly his farewell tour, and we saw Rickie Weeks in the All-Star Game. Although no one pitcher put together a dominant season, we saw some of the best starting pitching the Brewers have seen in years from Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson, and we saw John Axford become one of the best relievers in the game today.

We had this:

And this:

And this:

And so much more. The Brewers gave us a NL Central championship, an NLDS victory, and a great ride through it all. There will be another pennant on the Miller Park left field wall, and even though the club didn’t get a National League pennant or a World Series Championship, that’s something to be very proud of.

The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers won’t leave the legacy they wanted to leave, but they left us so much to remember. Even as the team goes their separate ways this offseason, they will live in the hearts and minds of Brewer fans for a very long time. And even if Beast Mode leaves along with Prince Fielder this offseason, Beast Mode will never die in my heart.

Thank you, to the entire organization, for a fantastic season. And I’ll see you this spring, ready and waiting for more memories.

Oct162011

Right Where We Want Them

There’s an interesting debate on the use of the pronoun “we” when talking about sports team. When I write here, I like to at least pretend to be objective, hence I don’t use “we” when referring to the Milwaukee Brewers. In conversation? Sure. It’s just the parlance of our times, even though we as fans don’t really have much to do with the team’s success.

So when I say the Brewers have the Cardinals “right where we want them,” I am not referring to the players or the coaches or the management, because this is pretty obviously not where they would ideally want to be right now. They want to be up 3-2, or even more so, they want to be out of this series and preparing for a matchup with the Texas Rangers.

But if you had told any Brewers fan in March, or April, or May, or June, or July, or August, or September or two weeks ago or even three days ago that the Brewers would have a chance to win two straight game at home to go to the World Series? We’ve seen the Brewers win so often this season, so convincingly, and so consistently. We all would have taken that offer in a heartbeat.

This is why we watch baseball, after all. We, speaking as a fan, have exactly what we want, right here. Our team, at our place, with a chance to get to a championship. There is nothing left to do but watch our Milwaukee Brewers write their story on the field.

It doesn’t get much better than that.