Baseball Prospectus rolled out their first Playoff Odds report of 2013 today. The simulations weren’t too kind to the Brewers.
The PECOTA-based odds report has the Brewers going an average of 79.1-82.9 over thousands of simulations, making the playoffs 18.3% of the time, and reaching the divisional round (either winning or avoiding the wildcard play-in game) 12.5% of the time. If you’re looking for something to file under “So You’re Saying There’s a Chance,” the Brewers won the World Series in 0.8% of the simulations.
Baseball Prospectus sees the Reds as the heavy favorites in the NL Central, winning the division in 63% of sims with an average of 89 wins. St. Louis follows with an 82.8-win average, making the playoffs 39.3% of the time. The Brewers rank third in the Central, followed closely by the Pirates (78.9 wins) and Cubs (77.5).
Yes, Baseball Prospectus has the Brewers closer to last place than second place in the Central. Without the Astros there to kick around and the Cubs steadily improving, the bottom of the division is likely to be much more muddled than we’re used to.
Elsewhere in the league, the Dodgers are heavy favorites to reach the postseason following their offseason spending spree (80.3% playoff percentage), with Washington being projected atop the East (67.9%). In the AL, the Tigers (82.6%), Yankees (69.9%) and Angels (68.3%) are your favorites to reach the playoffs.
Detroit carries the highest World Series odds, winning it all in 14.9% of simulations. The Dodgers (11.4%) and Reds (10.8%) follow, with the Yankees (9.5%) and Angels (9.2%) rounding out the top five.
If the initial PECOTA projections are right, the Brewers would finish under .500 for the first time in the Ron Roenicke Era.