PECOTA puts Brewers playoff odds at 18% | Disciples of Uecker

Disciples of Uecker

We'd like to go to the Playoffs, that would be cool.

Baseball Prospectus rolled out their first Playoff Odds report of 2013 today. The simulations weren’t too kind to the Brewers.

The PECOTA-based odds report has the Brewers going an average of 79.1-82.9 over thousands of simulations, making the playoffs 18.3% of the time, and reaching the divisional round (either winning or avoiding the wildcard play-in game) 12.5% of the time. If you’re looking for something to file under “So You’re Saying There’s a Chance,” the Brewers won the World Series in 0.8% of the simulations.

Baseball Prospectus sees the Reds as the heavy favorites in the NL Central, winning the division in 63% of sims with an average of 89 wins. St. Louis follows with an 82.8-win average, making the playoffs 39.3% of the time. The Brewers rank third in the Central, followed closely by the Pirates (78.9 wins) and Cubs (77.5).

Yes, Baseball Prospectus has the Brewers closer to last place than second place in the Central. Without the Astros there to kick around and the Cubs steadily improving, the bottom of the division is likely to be much more muddled than we’re used to.

Elsewhere in the league, the Dodgers are heavy favorites to reach the postseason following their offseason spending spree (80.3% playoff percentage), with Washington being projected atop the East (67.9%). In the AL, the Tigers (82.6%), Yankees (69.9%) and Angels (68.3%) are your favorites to reach the playoffs.

Detroit carries the highest World Series odds, winning it all in 14.9% of simulations. The Dodgers (11.4%) and Reds (10.8%) follow, with the Yankees (9.5%) and Angels (9.2%) rounding out the top five.

If the initial PECOTA projections are right, the Brewers would finish under .500 for the first time in the Ron Roenicke Era.

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Comments

Tell us what do you think.

  1. vBar says: February 15, 2013

    The Brewers would be 3 games below the 2nd Wild Card spot from the simulations. I suppose the good news is that it’ll be a fun season to watch if they stay within striking distance.

    The simulations from AL East seem to be messed up. In what universe do the Yankees win the division without their traditional power and the Blue Jays are 5 games below? The 1-2 punch of Dickey and Buehrle and the 1-2-3-4 of Reyes, Melky, Bautista and Encarnacion should destroy most other teams. Perhaps the issue is that they can’t simulate Dickey’s numbers or consider Encarnacion’s HR spike a fluke. I think they’re wrong.

  2. Jeff Wahlen says: February 17, 2013

    I’m with vBar, the Argonauts will breeze in the East.

  3. Bob says: February 18, 2013

    Maybe I’m naive, but I don’t see how the Brewers should be worse this season than last season.

    • vBar says: February 18, 2013

      They won’t be worse in terms of standings (Remaining 3rd in NL central) but will have fewer wins because the Astros moved to the AL.

    • Steve says: February 18, 2013

      Bob- Where are they going to get the pitching to finish higher than .500? Also, what are the chances that Ramirez, Lucroy, Gomez and Aoki all have seasons like they did last year? Weeks will probably improve, and Segeura may be better this season, but the negative regressions will likely outweigh the positives.

  4. Al says: February 19, 2013

    Just curious, what did these projections say about the Brewers in 2011?

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