Presented Without Comment: ZiPS! Bang! Pow! | Disciples of Uecker

Disciples of Uecker

We'd like to go to the Playoffs, that would be cool.

The Milwaukee Brewers head into August at the head of the National League Central pack. With a 2.5 game lead over the hated/classy St. Louis Cardinals and a pretty darn good shot at making the playoffs, everything the Brewers do on the field from here on out will come under the closest of scrutiny. Rightfully so, as the team is still on a slippery place on the playoff probability curve and need to play well to hold down a playoff spot.

The Brewers’ offense has a .322 wOBA, tied for the 10th best in baseball, tied for fifth best in the NL. If you aren’t familiar with wOBA, it’s on a pretty similar scale to OBP. A solid group to be sure, but not dominant and quite a bit worse without Rickie Weeks in the lineup for the foreseeable future.

With that in mind, I present to you what ZiPS projects for the Brewers offense (in the form of wOBA) for the remainder of 2011. I present this with the caveat that I know ZiPS can’t tell the future, and the actual production of these players may vary wildly from what I type here, especially if they’re injured or not in the big leagues. Players in the minors without big league experience do not have ZiPS projections on FanGraphs.

Who should get the playing time? How do you optimize a lineup and a roster from these players?

All info from FanGraphs, except as noted.

ZiPS projections:

  • Prince Fielder: .401 wOBA
  • Ryan Braun: .398 wOBA
  • Rickie Weeks: .356 wOBA
  • Corey Hart: .348 wOBA
  • Mat Gamel: .331 wOBA
  • Taylor Green: .326* wOBA
  • Jerry Hairston, Jr.: .326 wOBA
  • Nyjer Morgan: .315 wOBA
  • Casey McGehee: .312 wOBA
  • Jonathan Lucroy: .311 wOBA
  • George Kottaras: .305 wOBA
  • Yunieskt Betancourt: .301 wOBA
  • Carlos Gomez: .298 wOBA
  • Brandon Boggs: .297 wOBA
  • Felipe Lopez: .294 wOBA
  • Eric Farris: .290 wOBA
  • Josh Wilson: .289 wOBA
  • Mark Kotsay: .288 wOBA
  • Craig Counsell: .287 wOBA
  • Mike Rivera: .287 wOBA
  • Erick Almonte: .285 wOBA
  • Brett Carroll: .280 wOBA

*Green’s wOBA ZiPS projection was not available on FanGraphs because he hasn’t played in the big leagues this year. I calculated this number by taking a ZiPS slash line projection that Dan Szymborski gave me and teased a guesstimate wOBA out of it using the equation that these guys found to be pretty accurate. Green’s wOBA projection isn’t “official” (such that it is), but it should be very close.

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Comments

Tell us what do you think.

  1. Shawn says: August 2, 2011

    I believe it was THT that provided this wOBA calculator. If you there was full ZiPS info a la minor league splits (I know Jeff doesn’t update it anymore), you might be able to come up with something a bit more accurate. Also, if you read the comments, (1.75*OBP+SLG)/3 is actually more accurate, and gives a wOBA for Green as .331.

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