Presented Without Comment: ZiPS Projects The Brewers Offense | Disciples of Uecker

Disciples of Uecker

We'd like to go to the Playoffs, that would be cool.

The ZiPS projections for the Milwaukee Brewers 2013 season came out today on Fangraphs. While a lot of focus has been on the  pitchers, there is an interesting trend among the hitters as well.  Here are the projected starters 2012 Average/On Base/Slugging lines along with the projected 2013 numbers.

Jonathan Lucroy

2012: .320/.368/.513

2013 zips: .274/.328/.421

Corey Hart

2012: .270/.334/.507

2013 zips: .265/.329/.485

Rickie Weeks

2012: .230/.328/.400

2013 zips: .252/.344/.443

Jean Segura

2012: .264/.321/.331

2013 zips: .278/.325/.402

Aramis Ramirez
2012: .300/.360/.540

2013 zips: .280/.338/.494

Ryan Braun

2012: .319/.391/.595

2013 zips: .302/.371/.540

Carlos Gomez

2012: .260/.305/.463

2013 zips: .249/.300/.418

Norichika Aoki

2012: .288/.355/.433

2013 zips: .288/.342/.395


Ok, I’m done being negative for today.

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Tell us what do you think.

  1. Jaymes Langrehr says: January 11, 2013

    For the sake of more context, if anyone is interested in what the 2012 projections looked like:

    Quite a few outplayed their projections last year, so who’s to say it can’t happen again? See, we’re not always negative (of course, one could say it’s unlikely that many outplay projections again)!

    • Ryan Topp says: January 11, 2013

      Thank you. I really need balancing out right now.

      Throwing down ideas as we speak for a “things to be happy about” post for next week. It’s making me happier.

    • Steven says: January 11, 2013

      Projections are normally a little conservative and ZIPs has a track record of following this trend (see Braun).

      To add a little context, however little it may be, I did this with the Nationals (5th best in NL in runs). Avergae wOBA change? -.016 and that is with the phenom Bryce Harper. The Brewers average wOBA change? -.013 and that is with Braun’s -.026.

      Decide for yourself what this says, since it is only comparing to one team it probably says nothing at all. None-the-less, I am not too worried about the Brewers offense.

  2. Nels says: January 12, 2013

    yeah they seem to be pretty conservative on all of these guys except for the ones you would expect to go up (weeks &Segura). Lucroy sticks out to me the most considering he has made huge jumps in his numbers every year. The kind of drop they are predicting is inconsistent with anything we have seen from him throughout his career. I think Hillbilly Hart will have a good year this year as he will be more comfortable at his position and he’s playing for a payday.

  3. Rob says: January 12, 2013

    Ramirez’s injury riddled 2010 is what is killing his projections. Maybe his BA falls off a tiny bit, but he hasn’t had an OBP below .350 except for 2010 since 2003.

    Lucroy’s number’s seem in line. I doubt he is a .338 BABIP guy so his numbers should fall off. Maybe he keeps his power, maybe not. He never showed great power before.


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