Rounding The Bases: Trade Odds | Disciples of Uecker

Disciples of Uecker

We'd like to go to the Playoffs, that would be cool.

This week the format is going to be a little different than usual. We’re looking at the Brewers’ potential trade pieces. We’ll try to put a number on the likelihood that they’re moved before the postseason eligibility deadline at the end of August and give our reasoning. Then the other person is going to come in and play a little “higher or lower” with the number and explain why they think the other person is an idiot. Ready for fun?

Francisco Rodriguez

Ryan: OK, this is my five-star, AAA, diamond-rock-solid-lock to be moved. The Brewers signed him for only $2 million and have been trying to get that Proven Closer® label back on him over the last month or so. Basically, the only way he isn’t moved by the end of August is if he gets hurt, so I’ll go 95%.

Steve: Agreed. KRod has a nickname, closer face and he’s relatively cheap. Trade talk always swirls around starting pitcher, but it’s closers that move before the deadline. Bullpens are tough to build long-term, so waiting for the hot arm at the deadline is the way to go and the Brewers have one of those guys. 100%

John Axford

Steve: Does John Axford qualify as a Proven Closer? He’s had rough patches, but overall Axford has been solid out of the pen. Also, 2013 is much better than the disaster that was 2012. He’s in his first year of arbitration, so a team acquiring Axford has the option to keep for a couple seasons beyond 2013. The Brewers would be smart to deal him while he’s hot. 65%

Ryan:  A lot of it will probably come down to how much (if any) they want to trim the payroll down for 2014, as the lowest he can make if offered arbitration is around four million dollars. Since we really don’t know what they want to do there and even though they probably should move him for whatever asset he can bring back, I’ll say it’s just barely better than even money. 55%

Mike Gonzalez

Ryan: This is another guy I think is extremely likely to move before all is said and done, though maybe he’s more likely to go through waivers in August than most. He’s making a little over $2 million this year, and if a team really wants to wait and save a few bucks, perhaps they give up just a little more? Whatever the return, it’s going to be pretty insignificant. I’ll say 80%, just because there is a smallish chance no one really wants him period.

Steve: LOOGY on a non-competitive team. At least 80%, so I’ll go Price Is Right and say 81%.

Tom Gorzelanny

Steve: Gorzelanny is a lefty that isn’t saddled with the LOOGY tag. He can make spot starts and soak up innings. It’s not a bad idea to enter the postseason with a versatile lefty available, so there should be some interest. The acquiring team should have some interest in Gorzelanny beyond 2013 since he is owed $2.8MM in 2014. That could scare away teams with an eye on the postseason. 55%

Ryan: I really don’t think that too many teams that are contending for the postseason are going to worry too much about $2.8 million for 2014, honestly. The bigger issue is that he’s been starting with a little bit of success lately, and perhaps the Brewers would like to pump his value as a potential starter and move him at a later date? I’ll say 40%, with that number dropping a lot if they  deal a starter.

Jim Henderson

Ryan: This number is going to be a lot lower than it should be, because it’s been reported that the Brewers have told teams that they’re not going to move him. Given the high turnover rate of closers and the fact that Henderson is already 30 years old, there is very little chance of building a successful bullpen around Henderson in a few years anyway. They might as well see what teams are willing to give up, but they’re saying they’re not, so 20%.

Steve: There hasn’t been any whispers surrounding Henderson, and I think the bullpen of 2012 scared Doug Melvin and Co. from running out a crew that could implode. Henderson is cheap and they probably think he could be dealt in another season if it came to that. I’d trade him while he has value, but I think your 20% is right on.

Nori Aoki

Steve: This is the first guy on the list that may sting a little for the Brewers’ fan base. Aoki went from an unknown quantity to fan favorite when he took over the lead off spot from Rickie Weeks in 2012. He’s not the prototypical corner bat and probably a better fit for a team with above average pop up the middle that just needs a guy to get on base and play solid defense. I guess they could take a chance by moving him to centerfield too (though I wouldn’t recommend it). He has an option for 2014. He should move 100%, but it’s safer to say 50% for a team that can’t utter the word “rebuild.”

Ryan: Perhaps no player on the roster is a clearer litmus test for what they think of their chances for 2014. If they think they can win, they’ll hold on to him and maybe even extend him. If they’re being more realistic (yeah, I said it) then they’ll deal him. I’ll go 40% trade and 20% that they extend him past 2014 before next year starts.

Rickie Weeks

Ryan: This is a really tough one for me, because I do love me some Rickie, but there are some pretty clear indicators that they would like to move him. Yes, his salary and the 2015 vesting option make him less than the ideal piece to move and they probably get little but salary relief back, but that may be something they really want. I’ll go 49.999% because my heart would break if I say 50/50.

Steve: Scooter Gennett wasn’t very good in his short stay on the major league roster. The club believes in him though, and they want to give him a shot. The only way to do that is to move Rickie Weeks. A trade deadline deal may be 50/50. When we get to the off-season, that number will jump to the 70% range. (Yes, I cheated.)

Aramis Ramirez

Steve: I want to be a wiseass and say “0.0% because he’s hurt.” That probably ignores that if he gets back on the field in early August, he could move on waivers. Ramirez is owed something like $26MM for the rest of his contract. That’s the kind of guy that could move across waivers to a team with deep pockets and big hole in their lineup. It’s still unlikely, but not impossible. 5%

Ryan: Yup, I could totally see the Dodgers making that sort of move if they stay hot, but it’s going to still require a lot to go right over the next few weeks. I’ll be a little more generous and say 10% but that might just be wishful thinking.

UPDATE: It should be noted that since this was written, this came out. Doesn’t change much, but it’s worth noting.

Kyle Lohse

Ryan: Like Aoki, what the team does with Lohse over the next 6 weeks will say a lot about how they view their chances for next year. Given the wishy-washy comments of the owner on the subject, it’s hard to say for sure one way or another how committed they are to winning in 2014. Still, I’ll stand with this ownership and management group’s “never give up” history and say it’s a 1 in 3 shot, so 33%.

Steve: Trading Lohse is going to make Mark Attanasio look like a chump. He’s the only guy that believed signing Lohse elevated this roster’s ability to compete. I have a tough time believing that he’ll sign off on a trade when it was only a 3-year deal to begin with. I’m putting this at 20% and if he gets traded, they’ll get more talent back than is sensible.

Yovani Gallardo

Steve: Are the Brewers rebuilding? We’ll get that answer if Yovani Gallardo gets moved by the trade deadline. Things looks like they were coming together on June, and then went back other toilet in July. It’s been a stressful year for Gallardo. He pitched in the World Baseball Classic, he got nailed for a DUI, and now his name keeps getting thrown around in trade talks. The Brewers can’t sell low on Gallardo, so they should hang up on any team trying to get him for a discount because of a poor 2013 to date. He’s under team control for two more seasons and he’s under 30. 10%

Ryan: Hard to argue with much of anything there, though I do think the effect that his poor season has had on his trade value is sometimes overstated. It’s not helping, but other teams have longer memories than most of us give them credit for. Still, hard to see anyone coming in with a Luca Brasi-type offer, and that is what it should take to move him with those 2 extra years of control. 15%

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Comments

Tell us what do you think.

  1. Mathdude says: July 21, 2013

    Thanks guys, good breakdowns. I wasn’t really sure what to expect.

    • Ryan Topp says: July 21, 2013

      Thanks!

  2. vineet barot says: July 21, 2013

    Wow that’s a pretty high percent on Gorz! I can’t see any contending teams trading for a mediocre swing man.

    I think Gorz & Ramirez will be traded in the off-season.

    • Ryan Topp says: July 21, 2013

      Gorzelanny’s 1.88 ERA is going to play with a lot of teams. I’m sure the interest is going to be there, the question for me is more about how willing the Brewers will be to trade anyone they don’t have to. I’m not overly optimistic they will.

      • vineet barot says: July 22, 2013

        Similar to what you said about Gallardo, that his recent struggle is overrated, I think Gorz’s current unsustainable ERA is overrated. Teams have longer memories.

    • Steve Garczynski says: July 22, 2013

      Tom Gorzelanny “Successful Lefty Reliever” is is different than his career as a starter. Someone like Gorzelanny may move to clear some salary and not because the Brewers expect anything in return that will impact the team on the field.

      • vineet barot says: July 22, 2013

        1) he doesn’t get paid much. 2) don’t such moves happen after deadline? 50% before deadline seems high.

        • Steve Garczynski says: July 22, 2013

          Don’t focus on the percentages. Those are a broad way for us to say if we think they’ll actually get traded, and there aren’t many over 50%. Krod and Gonzalez are the only two we’re confident will get moved.

  3. Randall Delaney says: July 21, 2013

    I think it would be best to not make this list when we are on a 4 game win-streak and our pitching is spectacular! I don’t agree with almost the entire list. Every one of these players is playing good or great (or injured), and I don’t see the point in trading any of them without some pretty good prospects coming in return (which won’t happen!). I mean you’re talking about getting nothing for some of these players. Why even suggest they would be traded? These guys in the bullpen our starting to build a nice pen for our team, and now you want to get rid of everybody??? What is the sense of even discussing this? And 3 of our top batters? And our top 2 starters? Why trade our best players away? To get worse? Not sure I understand this. I got the Greinke trade because he was going to leave anyways, but these guys? Not so much… I think this article is pure ignorance. Only my opinion, but a better educated opinion than this article is…(yes I said it!) Why get rid of Aoki? He’s a solid lead-off man. Weeks is playing better (why trade him while his value is low?). You don’t trade Ramirez when he’s injured! Trade away our entire bullpen??? Don’t think so dudes. And while you’re suggesting we get rid of Lohse and Gallardo possibly, why don’t you throw in Peralta, Segura, Gomez, Lucroy, and Braun??? That’s our entire team now. Rewrite this article please and email it to me for approval before posting. THANKS!

    • Bob M says: July 22, 2013

      Someone appears to have interpreted statements like “a Luca Brasi-type offer, and that is what it should take to move him” as “we must get rid of Gallardo no matter what”. FYI – Luca Brasi is a Godfather reference. It essentially means that we should keep Gallardo.

    • Steve Garczynski says: July 22, 2013

      Chances every single one of the guys on that list gets traded?

      0.0%

    • Steve S says: July 22, 2013

      You are confusing predictions with recommendations. The authors are not saying any or all of these guys SHOULD be traded, they are predicting the chances that they WILL be traded by the Brewers.

      • Randall Delaney says: July 22, 2013

        Steve S. you are correct. But why write an article about what other teams can get from us? Wouldn’t it make sense to write about what players should be traded and what we should and could get in return? It’s a struggle for me to find a motive for this article. Nothing about this article benefits a Brewers fan. This should be written and posted on the other 29 teams home page. Does anybody agree with that at least?

    • dBug says: July 22, 2013

      “pure ignorance” is a good description for your post, Randall. Please stop.

      • Randall Delaney says: July 22, 2013

        Naw, don’t think so Dbug. The fact that you think my opinion of the Brewers should not and will not trade any of these players is ignorant, then obviously you route for the Brewers and the Cubs and really like the Cubs. lol

        Bob: I was not referring to Gallardo. More along the lines of Michael Gonzalez.

        Steve: Thanks for stating the obvious! I think there’s a small chance more than 2 of them get traded. What should the Brewers do at this point: don’t trade any of them if were not getting anything back of much value. Why make our team worse for no reason?

        That’s why I think this article is ignorant. Why, as Brewers fans discuss the % that some of our best players will be traded? I know, nothing better to write about (even though our team hasn’t allowed a run in 30+ innings and is on a 4-game win streak!). LOL, not really funny though in my opinion.

  4. Lee says: July 21, 2013

    How much of Aramis Ramirez’s salary would the Crew be willing to eat? The Crew paid him below the yearly average salary of his contract last year?

    • Ryan Topp says: July 21, 2013

      That’s a fantastic question, and it’s really hard to say at this point since there is basically no history to go on. Obviously, the more they’re willing to pay, the better the prospect return should be. If they even trade him.

  5. Darius says: July 21, 2013

    Which team, if any, do you see K-Rod and Axford landing on? And what do you think the Crew would get back?

    • Randall Delaney says: July 22, 2013

      This is my point. Brewers fans want to know what we can get, not what we can give other teams. Wouldn’t you rather read an article about what the Brewers could bring in with these trades? Who cares about some random % our best pitchers and solid batters will be traded. Some of these players have no reason to be on this list.

      Please write another article about what the Brewers could be getting and the benefits of trading these players is. Thanks

      • Steve Garczynski says: July 22, 2013

        Jim Bowden writes for ESPN. Coming up with crazy trade scenarios is his specialty.

    • Ryan Topp says: July 22, 2013

      You’re not going to get a likely star player back for either, obviously. What you can get back is a guy that the other team is down on for one reason or another, a guy that is perhaps a long ways off from being a MLB player but has some upside, or a limited upside role player type.

      In other words, when the move is made it’s probably going to look pretty underwhelming. Then again, the Gomez deal looked mighty underwhelming (to me, anyway) when it was done, and it’s worked out really well. Not that they’ll get that sort of return, but trades have a funny way or changing over time.

  6. OkinawaMarine says: July 22, 2013

    Aoki’s defense has been subpar this year; he’s getting thrown out on the bases at a ridiculous rate; and he hasn’t driven the ball at all since May. Schaefer is the better option in right next year, so we ought to move Aoki now if we can get anything. If Braun is “unavailable” for an extended period next year, Schaefer can’t be the replacement – we’ll need someone with a power bat in that position. Gomez won’t hit .325, but he is a .275 hitter with 20+ HR pop and a boatload of SBs – and a nice new deal to boot – so Schaefer won’t be replacing him anytime soon. Sorry folks, but Sayonara Nori.

    • Ryan Topp says: July 22, 2013

      I would definitely be looking at moving him if someone is willing to pay a decent price. The thing that has me thinking twice about this one is a couple of not exactly on-the-field things. Having a former Japanese star is useful from a marketing perspective, bringing back some extra cash from the Japanese market. ICYMI, they have been posting adverts in Japanese behind home plate this summer and that may be part of a larger strategy. They also may want to create inroads into the Japanese and Asian markets generally in terms of bringing in players, and may look at Aoki as part of that.

      I would probably move him, but I’ll concede that they may have larger motives in keeping him than just trying to wring an extra win or two out of the 2014 season.

      • OkinawaMarine says: July 22, 2013

        Good point re the marketing; they broadcast a number of Brewers games on the Japanese sports channels here (Okinawa) due to Nori’s presence. He’s not Yu Darvish, but then he isn’t Hideki Irabu either.

  7. Cecil Cooper's Love Child says: July 22, 2013

    I agree that we should shop Aoki. Since we learned that he is only under team control through 2014, he should be dealt. Schaefer, Khris Davis, Mitch Haniger, Victor Roache are all corner/4th OFs that are coming through the system.

    I am starting to worry about Aoki’s speed. He only has 10 steals and might be the reigning TOOTBLAN king. If we can get a prospect or 2, I say move him.

    I would move 3 of the guys on that list for prospects. I don’t think you want to move more than that. Unless someone bowls us over with a good deal.

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