Season Over: The 2010 Season, Graphically (And Some Words, Too) | Disciples of Uecker

Disciples of Uecker

We'd like to go to the Playoffs, that would be cool.

With Sunday’s loss to the San Francisco Giants, the Brewers have officially been eliminated from 2010 playoff contention. To say that this has been anything but a disappointing season would be a lie, as the Brewers have been down and out since May, essentially. That’s not to say that I didn’t enjoy watching, but everybody knows it’s more fun to watch a playoff team.

Let’s take a look at just how depressing 2010 was with the help of a graph. Baseball Prospectus provides playoff odds on their website, and they provide reports dating back to the beginning of the season. Using that, we can produce the following graph detailing the Brewers postseason odds at any point in the season. The overall height of the graph is the overall playoff odds, with the blue detailing the odds of the division and the yellow the extra odds of reaching via the wild card.

The Brewers had a chance in the early going, starting up around a 17% playoff probability and reaching as high as 36% after an okay start at 8-7. Again, after a solid west coast swing put them at 15-16, the Brewers were looking alright, at a 26.1% playoff odds. Then came the nine game losing streak which put the Brewers at 15-25 with a mere 5% chance of making the postseason and enticed me to write this slightly premature “Season Over” post.

The worst was yet to come, as the Brewers went 8-9 until June 7th, famously known as The Exorcism around these parts, sitting at 23-34 and with a meager 0.6% playoff odds. The release of Suppan galvanized the team, who went 11-7 in their next 18 to put a bit of hope back in the team at 3.6% odds, but the Brewers couldn’t capitalize and limped into the all-star break at 40-49 with a mere 0.8% playoff odds, and really, from that point on, it was just going through the motions and trying to figure out who would be around for 2011.

There are bright spots, as former Brewer and current blogger Seth McClung points out in his blog. However, as far as performance on the field goes this season, there was little else but disappointment, and nary a reason for optimism since April. Alas, such is life and such is baseball. Without the lows, where would the highs come from? As long as there’s a team in Milwaukee, I will watch, and I will have hope, and I’ll remain excited regardless of whether or not there’s a reason to be or not.

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Tell us what do you think.

  1. Norm says: September 23, 2010

    We need to spend some money on pitching without trading good players or we will never amount to a hill of beans. Thank you for you attention.

  2. Dave says: September 27, 2010

    What I think is ridiculous is that because of the unequal distribution of teams in MLB, day 1 the brewers and other members of the NL central have a mere 24.3% chance of making the playoffs. Any other team in MLB has at least a statistical 3% advantage over NL central teams. The true beneficiaries of our disadvantage is the teams in the AL west who start with a 32% chance. Maybe that doesn’t sound like much, but that’s the same a comparing batter with a .243 avg vs a .327 avg and saying oh they’re pretty similar. America’s favorite pastime will not be fair game until all teams have an equal salary cap and all 30 teams enter day one with a 26.7% chance of making the playoffs.

  3. Rosella Sorell says: December 26, 2010

    Suddently I realised that you were right. Please post more often.


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