The Brewers are 15-25. Even the most optimistic scenario for the Brewers would be one in which 86 wins takes the wild card – extremely unlikely, but possible. In order to get to 86 wins in the last 122 games, the Brewers would have to go 71-51. That’s a winning percentage of .581. 90 wins and 75-47 is probably what will actually be required. This team is probably a .500 true-talent team at best at this point, especially given the injuries and the ineffectiveness of the bullpen – a far cry from what would be required to dig out of this hole.
The Brewers chances of making the playoffs aren’t quite 0 yet, but they probably sit somewhere between 0.5% and 2.0%. Barring a minor miracle, the Brewers season is over.
The Brewers have a fantastic offense and will continue to hit. It’s possible that the pitching improves, but given the talent at hand and the poor quality of the defense behind them, there’s almost no way, barring a major (and incredibly inadvisable) trade for starting pitching, that the Brewers develop a playoff-quality run prevention unit.
This season is a lost cause, and Doug Melvin and the Brewers should be planning for 2011.