So here we are at the All-Star Break, with the Brewers clinging to a one-game divisional lead. After two months of acting disinterested, the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates have come charging back. As of now, the Cardinals are one game back, the Reds one and a half games back, and the Pirates somewhat frustrated at three games back.
Now the question is, can the Brewers hold them all off? To answer that question, we need to look at projections.
Many of you are generally familiar with projections: the statistical expectations for players that ball clubs, and increasingly fans, use to predict the performances of baseball players. You’ve probably heard of PECOTA (published at Baseball Prospectus). You may even have heard of ZiPS, published by Dan Szymborski.
The one you may not have heard of is Steamer; if so, that’s unfortunate. Steamer is making a case as the best publicly-available projection system. Last year, it predicted the average performance of baseball players better than any other system. More importantly, unlike other systems, Steamer actually keeps a close track on significant in-season injuries, and adjusts its projections both accordingly and promptly.
That matters right now, since neither PECOTA nor ZiPS have noticed that players like Yadier Molina and Brandon Phillips will be out for two months, much less adjusted their projections . That may be one reason both PECOTA and Fangraphs (which averages ZiPS and Steamer’s projections) now see the Cardinals as slight favorites in the NL Central. Admittedly, both PECOTA and Fangraphs are a bit more advanced than what I am about to do here; unlike me, they take their projections and actually simulate the games for the rest of the season. But, those simulations still rely heavily on the quality of the underlying projections, and, as you’re about to see, a more realistic rest-of-season projection system likes the Brewers better.
To make these projections, I started with the projected Fangraphs position player and pitcher wins above replacement (WAR) for the rest of this season, as predicted by Steamer, for each NL Central team. Here is how Steamer rates the teams’ abilities going forward:
|Team||Hitting||Pitching||Rest-of Season Total WAR|
The bad news, if you want to look at it that way, is that the Brewers rank behind the Pirates and Cardinals in projected player production, tied with the Reds at the back of the four contenders. The good news is that the differences aren’t that significant, and the Brewers start out with a small head start in the standings when play resumes on Friday.
We can take the projected WAR by Steamer for each team for the rest of the year, convert it to team wins, and come up with a projected standings differential. If you care about the math, check it out in the appendix below. If you don’t care, please continue:
|Team||Hitting||Pitching||tWAR||Wins to date||Current Games Behind||Win Factor||Final Games Behind|
So, there you have it: not much is projected to change. According to Steamer, the Pirates will lead the rest of the division with their bats, while the Reds keep pace with their pitching. The Cardinals will continue their overall resurgence, while the Brewers will hang in there and, most likely, generate enough production to win the division. Steamer is somewhat bullish on the Cubs remaining competitive from day to day, not that it will do them much good. But the real point, here, is that none of the contenders has a clear advantage, and the Brewers need not take a back seat to anyone down the stretch. As it currently stands, the 50th percentile expectation is that the Brewers retain a narrow lead as the season concludes.
Two final notes: first, these are average values for each team. There is nothing wrong with averages: they are quite literally the expected values for any given statistic. But, random variation (or, if you prefer, “chance’ or “luck”) will mess with these expectations. At least one NL Central team will probably overperform its expectation, while one or two others drift off pace a bit, due to injury or something else. But that’s why they play the games, and why we all bother to watch.
Second, one could reasonably argue that the Brewers will outpace what Steamer has projected for them. Steamer was bit pessimistic about the Brewers coming into this year, and several Brewers have so far outperformed what Steamer expected. That may, or may not continue. Similarly, the Brewers’ comparatively low pitching projection is based on their low projected Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) metric. But Brewers pitchers have outperformed that statistic all year, better than most teams. That by no means proves that they will continue to do so, but it reminds you that the Brewers enter the second stage of the 2014 season with plenty of upside.
Follow Jonathan on Twitter @bachlaw.
All statistics from Fangraphs.
In 2014, ~.82 team fWAR correlates to one team win. The correlation is .78, and p<.001 (very statistically significant).
You can probably assume that 31 wins (the rounded-up intercept) is about what a replacement level team would have produced by the All Star Break.
Finally, rather than worry about strict innings projections, I assumed that players unaccounted for by these team projections were replacement level, either individually or in the aggregate.