The Under 50 Club | Disciples of Uecker

Disciples of Uecker

We'd like to go to the Playoffs, that would be cool.

The Under 50 Club

By on August 5, 2013

The Brewers are one of only eight MLB teams to have not won 50 games. Their record of 47-64 is the fourth worst in all of baseball. This, I’m sure, is not news to you. The 2013 season has been a train wreck for the Crew on both the personnel and performance front. But all is not lost. The Brewers are getting an extended look at a handful of young, and/or fringy, players to help access the construction of next year’s roster. Also, if the standings hold tight, the Brewers are on track to receive the fourth pick in next year’s draft. After depleting their farm system in trades, having a few high-profile prospects not fulfill their perceived potential, and forfeiting this year’s first-round pick to sign Kyle Lohse, the Brewers farm system could use an influx of impact talent.

The 2005 draft was the last time the Brewers had a top-five draft pick. With the fifth pick, the Brewers landed Ryan Braun. But a top-five pick far from guarantees an impact player. For example, the Brewers selected Mark Rogers with the fifth-overall pick in 2004. As a winning and successful season slipped out of sight, I began to hope that this season’s struggles could be turned into a positive through next year’s draft. I’m not actively rooting for the Brewers to lose. I just don’t let their losing get under my skin. Yet, after last season’s late surge, I’m worried that a strong finish could return the Crew to mediocrity and spoil their chance at a high draft pick.

So, as attention shifts to the divisional and wild card races, I flipped the standings to see how it looked from the bottom. Then I analyzed each team’s remaining schedule to see how the rest of the season looks. Let’s start with the Brewers –

Milwaukee Brewers

Current record: 47-64 (.423 WP%) / 4th worst record in MLB

Here are the remaining teams the Brewers’ schedule and how they’ve fared against them so far –

Team Remaining Games Record Against WP%
Reds 10 3-6 .333
Cardinals 9 2-8 .200
Cubs 7 8-4 .667
Pirates 6 4-9 .308
Giants 4 3-0 1.000
Mets 4 1-2 .333
Mariners 3 0-0 NA
Angels 3 0-0 NA
Braves 3 2-1 .667
Rangers 2 1-1 .500

Overall, the Brewers are 24-31 (.436 WP%) against teams they will be facing down the stretch. 32 of their remaining 51 games will come against NL Central opponents, who have beaten the Brewers to a 17-27 record. Also, the Brewers will play 23 of their remaining games at Miller Park and 28 on the road. This could become a factor in the standing. Though the Brewers are below .500 at home, 27-31, they are even worse on the road, 20-33.

Even with the Brewers managing to go 15-15 over their last 30 games, don’t expect another strong finish to the season. Considering the injuries, Braun’s suspension, and a tough schedule that has them consistently facing three NL Central teams fighting for the playoffs, this looks like the year the Brewers return to the top five of the draft board.

Houston Astros

Current Record: 36-74 (.327 WP%) / Worst Record in MLB

No surprises here. Amidst a complete overhaul, the Astros are on pace for the first pick of the 2014 draft. Going 6-24 over their last 30 games certainly helps the cause.

The Astros play 52 more games – 26 at home and 26 on the road. Though it shouldn’t make much of a difference. Amazingly, the Astros are equally awful wherever they play. After Sunday’s loss, the Astros are 18-37 both at Minute Maid Park and away from it.

Here’s how they stack up against their remaining schedule –

Team Remaining Games Record Against WP%
Rangers 10 2-7 .222
A’s 7 1-11 .083
Mariners 7 5-7 .417
Angels 6 7-6 .538
Indians 4 1-2 .333
Blue Jays 3 1-3 .250
Yankees 3 1-2 .333
Red Sox 3 0-4 .000
White Sox 3 3-1 .750
Twins 3 0-3 .000
Reds 3 0-0 NA

With so many games against the Rangers and A’s, the Astros could still be a big factor in the AL West playoff race. While the Astros are 28-65 against the rest of the American League, they’ve played the NL pretty well, comparatively, by going 8-9.

The Astros are 21-46 (.313 WP%) against the opponents still on their schedule. As planned, next year’s top draft pick is theirs to lose.

Chicago White Sox

Current Record: 40-69 (.367) / 2nd Worst Record in MLB

Losers of their last 10 games, the White Sox are spiraling down dangerously close to the Astros. The White Sox have only mustered 8 wins over their last 30 games. Here’s who they’re facing from here to the end of the season –

Team Remaining Games Record Against WP%
Twins 11 2-6 .250
Tigers 9 3-7 .300
Royals 7 5-7 .417
Indians 6 2-11 .154
Yankees 6 0-0 NA
Orioles 4 2-1 .667
Rangers 3 2-1 .667
Astros 3 1-3 .250
Red Sox 3 2-1 .667
Blue Jays 1 3-3 .500

The White Sox are 22-40 (.355 WP%) against their remaining opponents. 33 of their remaining 53 games come against AL Central foes, who have dominated the White Sox all season. Going 12-31 against your own division is a great way to sink like a stone in the standings.

The only silver lining for the White Sox may be where they play the rest of the season. The White Sox are 22-28 at U.S. Cellular Field and 18-41 away from it. Playing 31 out of their last 53 at home may be just enough to keep them from threatening the Astros for the first pick. All signs points toward the White Sox landing the second pick in next year’s draft.

Miami Marlins

Current Record: 43-67 (.391 WP%) / 3rd Worst Record in MLB

Currently, the Marlins have the worst record in the National League. But that bottom spot and next year’s third draft pick aren’t out of reach for the Brewers just yet. Here’s the Marlins remaining schedule –

Team Remaining Games Record Against WP%
Nationals 10 3-6 .333
Braves 10 3-6 .333
Phillies 6 4-9 .308
Mets 4 10-5 .667
Dodgers 4 1-2 .333
Giants 3 3-1 .750
Rockies 3 3-1 .750
Cubs 3 1-3 .250
Pirates 3 2-1 .667
Tigers 3 0-0 NA
Royals 3 0-0 NA

The Marlins are 30-34 (.469 WP%) against the teams left on their schedule and 14-16 over their last 30 games. With an offense anchored by the now health Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison, and Jose Fernandez pitching like an ace, the Marlins could be primed to a decent end to their season.

Yet 20 of their last 52 games will come against the Braves and Nationals. How the Marlins play against those two teams will go a long way in determining whether the Brewers slide past them for the third pick.

Other Teams Under 50 Wins

Chasing the Brewers for the fourth pick are –

Team Record WP% Record Against Remaining Opponents WP%
Cubs 49-62 .441 26-42 .382
Twins 48-60 .444 28-36 .438
Giants 49-61 .445 33-33 .500
Mets 49-60 .450 35-43 .449

Out of all these teams, the Cubs may be the team most likely to sink below the Brewers. The Cubs and Brewers square off seven more times, which could go a long way in determining which team gets the fourth pick. The Cubs have been playing around .500 ball over the last month but face NL Central teams 29 times before the end of the season. Having won only 16 out of 31 (.340 WP%) against division foes, the fate of the Cubs will be determined by their biggest rivals.

The Twins get eleven games against the White Sox between here and the finish line. Past that, and a three-game series against the Astros and another against the Blue Jays, the Twins will be battling a bunch of hot teams. They play ten against the Indians, six against both the Royals and Tigers, and a full seven games against the A’s. Winners of 12 out of the last 30, the Twins, if they maintain their current pace, could also falls past the Crew in the standings if they don’t take care of business against the White Sox.

The Giants have struggled to win 11 of their last 30 games. Half of the opponents left on their schedule are from the NL West, which might not be a bad thing. The Giants are 29-21 within their division and own a winning percentage of, at least, .500 against every team. The Giants going 7-19 against the NL Central has been what has really hurt them. If the Giants continue to play well within their division, they should not be a threat to move further up the draft board.

Finally, the Mets get 27 out of their last 53 games at Citi Field. Being ten games under .500 at home, 22-32, the Mets may wish they would spend more time on the road. In addition, David Wright being DLed won’t help them win. The Mets still have seven games against AL teams to look forward too. They have done surprisingly well during interleague play and have gone 9-3 against the AL. Having won 16 out of their last 30, the Mets appear poised to hang just above the Brewers from here on. The two teams will meet in a four game series to end the season, which may be important for its impact on the 2014 draft order.

Outside of going 6-22 in the May, the Brewers have been a .500 team. Even with the injuries and influx of young and/or inexperienced players, all signs point to them continuing to win at just under that clip. So don’t expect the bottom to fall out on the Brewers but don’t expect a late season surge. Facing three playoff hungry NL Central teams should keep them from putting together a run. That may make games harder to watch, right now, but create a better payoff come draft day next year.

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Comments

Tell us what do you think.

  1. The Logical Man says: August 5, 2013

    Milw has second worst record in N.L. But their minor league system is pathetic- Melvin has mortgaged their future on a bunch of high priced garbage- Miami is improving. Besides having one of the top young pitchers in Baseball in Fernandez- They have a slew of good young talent- Especially Pitchers- Why is Melvin still in Milwaukee- The organization is set back hard

    • Adam says: August 5, 2013

      Were you whining this badly when they were among the best in the NL and in the playoffs only 2 years ago?

      • The Logical Man says: August 7, 2013

        Hey Bud- I am not a Brewer fan and am not whining- Go put your Ryan Braun jersey on and go to bed- Just stating facts

  2. Mathdude says: August 5, 2013

    There should be an “At Least 100 games under .500″ section. I haven’t run all the numbers for the other MLB organizations. We can’t be the only ones.

  3. Jeff says: August 5, 2013

    Is it just me, or does Bernie look like he’s wiping a tear from his eye as he slides down the slide in that picture?

  4. joeisme says: August 5, 2013

    There is no sure thing when drafting, as the Brewers have shown over and over. Just 2 years ago they were W.S. contenders. The Yankees had a top 4 minor leaguer (J. Montero) that they traded for another young pitcher. Montero is now in AAA and still not hitting, and they found out he is not good enough to catch! Look at the Pirates this year. They were awful for years even with their high draft choices, until they picked up 6 veterans that have now put them with one of the best records in baseball. Four pitchers (Burnett-Rodriguez-Loriano-Grilli) have been huge in their performance this year. All were aquired from other teams or FAs.

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