@CyrtHogg Who is more likely to wind up in a Brewers uniform this year: Ike Davis or Kendrys Morales?
— Tim Old (@timcyoung) April 10, 2014
After the endless Ike Davis rumors fell through this winter, it’s hard to see management continuing to pursue him in a trade with the Mets. The most likely scenario would be in a July trade if Milwaukee is still in contention. At this point, though, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the Brewers make a move to get a different left-handed hitting first baseman. They’ve pretty much abandoned the platoon with Lyle Overbay and Mark Reynolds, giving Reynolds almost all the starts.
According to Jon Heyman, the Brewers sent scouts to watch Kendrys Morales, 30. It makes sense for the Brewers, who can’t fully rely on Overbay’s offensive production (or lack thereof), to be on the market for a left-handed hitting first baseman coming off a .277/.336/.439 season with 23 home runs. It boils down to what the Brewers are willing to give up for Morales. If they sign him before the June amateur draft, they forfeit a draft pick, which would cause more uproar than even the Kyle Lohse signing did; but if they wait to sign him, they’re missing out on two months of better production than Overbay provides.
I’d go with Morales on this one.
— Eric Cumming (@BeerTheDeer) April 10, 2014
At this point in their respective careers, I’ll go on board as saying Scooter Gennett is a better player. Some people will like that. Others will dislike that a lot. Rickie Weeks is still a viable big leaguer, but the Brewers have been holding on, waiting for another breakout for a prolonged period of time now. His contact rates (though very good in an extremely small sample size this year) have been decreasing and his K% over the last two years are the two highest marks of his career.
Below are the line drive percentage comparisons for Weeks and Gennett (since 2012).
Both evidently have holes in their swings, as indicated by the blue areas in both heat maps. Gennett’s, however, goes to show that he’s more likely to make solid contact than Weeks.
That said, I would still take a .250/.320/.390 Rickie against lefties over all the grit in the world generated by Scoots McGee. Weeks is a career 125 wRC+ hitter against lefties, compared to Gennett, who has a, um, uh, -12 wRC+ against lefties in 43 plate appearances. So in order to get rid of the platoon, Gennett would really, really have to improve against lefties. In order to fully squash the platoon, he would have to get more occasional starts and plate appearances against lefties, which, given his track record compared to Weeks, is senseless. It would take a bold step of faith (or just being fed up with Weeks) by Ron Roenicke for Gennett to take over as full-time second baseman and get rid of the platoon.
@CyrtHogg Here are some BABIPs so far: Lucroy: .423 Reynolds: .400 Gennett: .375 Segura: .364 Ram: .467 Davis: .455 Gomez: .435 Concerned?
— Paul Noonan (@BadgerNoonan) April 10, 2014
Those figures are pretty high, but pretty much back up what we’ve seen so far from this offense. They’re putting up crazy-high numbers on offense, some of which is coming from bloop hits and poor defense. I’m not concerned because I don’t expect the offense to sustain six players OPSing over .800. Regression will come, the BABIPs will decrease, and the team won’t consistently put up the crazy numbers they did during their 6-0 road trip.
One of the main reasons I’m not concerned is the performance of the pitching staff. Yovani Gallardo, despite pitching to high contact, hasn’t been scored upon. Guys like Tyler Thornburg, Will Smith, and Brandon Kintzler in the bullpen have been brilliant. Even if the offense regresses (as the high BABIPs indicate will eventually happen), the pitching is good enough that they can still win games by keeping their opponents off the board.
@CyrtHogg Which part of the Brewers’ “Happy” video made you the most uncomfortable?
— Sam Oehler (@samoehler) April 10, 2014
In case you haven’t seen it yet, you can find the video here.
After you watch it, you’ll be in consensus with me that the Ryan Braun clip was arguably the most uncomfortable three seconds since you would watch TV with your parents growing up and that one really uncomfortable thing you hoped wouldn’t come up came up.
The second most-uncomfortable moment was Rock dancing. That happened. That really happened.
“How/why is Carlos Gomez so lovable?” –@NrichSon
He gives good hugs.
He has a million dollar smile.
He robs homers.
To get involved with the weekly DoU Twitter Mailbag, follow Curt on Twitter @CyrtHogg. Each week he opens the forum for questions to be answered in the Mailbag.