Unlucky End to a Lucky Streak | Disciples of Uecker

Disciples of Uecker

We'd like to go to the Playoffs, that would be cool.

The hot streak is over, folks. We will not be getting our free burgers after all.

After being shut-out in the first 8 and 2/3 innings, the Brewers were able to score a run on a bloop double to right field and a clutch hit by Yuniesky Betancourt. The game ended in bizarre fashion, with Martin Moldanado getting called out for stepping out of the batter’s box and interfering with a ball in play.

This bit of bad luck was in sharp contrast to the luck filled nine-game win streak.

Jean Segura’s BABIP

Jean Segura has been hot hot hot. Through the first 20 games, he’s hitting .396/.397/.493 with stellar defense. However, his BABIP of .417 is likely to decline. We would expect a higher than average BABIP for a contact hitter with speed and the ability to run out infield hits—Segura leads the major leagues with eight of those. But even Ichiro Suzuki, one of the best contact/speed hitters of our time, has a career average BABIP of only .346. Segura will be a star player for years to come but as the season continues, look for his hitting numbers to normalize.

Yuniesky Betancourt’s “Clutch” Hitting

Yuni B is becoming a better hitter. Ron Roenicke thinks so and so does Mr. Slugging Percentage (.492 through 20 games compared to .393 career). Small sample size, I know, but you can’t deny the clutch!

The game tying double, the grand-slam … boy Yuni B is a run driving in machine! He has 15 RBIs over 17 hits this season. He’s hitting .357/.389/.786 with runners in scoring position compared to .266/.290/.393 in his career. Even if the changes in approach are true, this run production is going to stop soon.

Under-Hitting, Out-Scoring

The Brewers were also lucky in the number of runs they produced per hit and, conversely, the number of runs they allowed despite opponents hitting. From the table below we can see that the Brewers produced twice as many runs for about the same number of hits (+walks) as their opponents!

Game Brewers (Walks + Hits) Brewers Runs Opponent (Walks + Hits) Opponent Runs
11 14 4 12 3
12 14 10 18 8
13 13 4 8 3
14 8 7 9 2
15 9 5 12 4
16 9 5 7 1
17 6 4 9 2
18 9 7 9 1
19 15 6 14 3
Total 97 52 98 27

I can go through more detailed stats on the kind of luck that the Brewers are enjoying but I think the table above should suffice. The table does not take into account the extra base hits. However, Nicholas Zettel wrote about the unusual number of multi-run home runs that the Brewers have been hitting as well.

The 2013 Milwaukee Brewers are a good team, undeserving of the 2-8 start. But they’re not a great team that can go on nine-game winning streaks often. All things considered, an 11-9 record with a shaky pitching staff and missing four-and-five hitters ain’t too bad.



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