With 10 games left, math not on Milwaukee’s side | Disciples of Uecker

Disciples of Uecker

We'd like to go to the Playoffs, that would be cool.

With their win over the Washington Nationals on Sunday, the Brewers improved to 79-73 on the year. Unfortunately for the Brewers, the St. Louis Cardinals also beat the Chicago Cubs, maintaining their 2.5 game lead for the second wildcard spot in the National League.

The Brewers have 10 games remaining in the 2012 season. The Cardinals have nine left. That means some rather unpleasant math for Milwaukee.

In order to tie for WC2, forcing a one-game playoff:
If the Cardinals go 0-9, the Brewers have to go 3-7.
If the Cardinals go 1-8, the Brewers have to go 4-6.
If the Cardinals go 2-7, the Brewers have to go 5-5.
If the Cardinals go 3-6, the Brewers have to go 6-4.
If the Cardinals go 4-5, the Brewers have to go 7-3.
If the Cardinals go 5-4, the Brewers have to go 8-2.
If the Cardinals go 6-3, the Brewers have to go 9-1.
If the Cardinals go 7-2, the Brewers have to go 10-0.
If the Cardinals go 8-1, the Brewers cannot catch them.
If the Cardinals go 9-0, the Brewers cannot catch them.

In order to pass the Cardinals, winning WC2 outright:
If the Cardinals go 0-9, the Brewers have to go 4-6.
If the Cardinals go 1-8, the Brewers have to go 5-5.
If the Cardinals go 2-7, the Brewers have to go 6-4.
If the Cardinals go 3-6, the Brewers have to go 7-3.
If the Cardinals go 4-5, the Brewers have to go 8-2.
If the Cardinals go 5-4, the Brewers have to go 9-1.
If the Cardinals go 6-3, the Brewers have to go 10-0.
If the Cardinals go 7-2, the Brewers cannot win outright.
If the Cardinals go 8-1, the Brewers cannot win outright.
If the Cardinals go 9-0, the Brewers cannot win outright.

The Cardinals’ remaining schedule: 3 at Houston, 3 vs Washington, 3 vs Cincinnati
The Brewers’ remaining schedule: 1 at Washington, 3 at Cincinnati, 3 vs Houston, 3 vs San Diego

Is a wildcard berth impossible? No, of course not. But every Brewers loss will hurt, and every Cardinals win will hurt even more.

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Comments

Tell us what do you think.

  1. Michael says: September 23, 2012

    I honestly think they need to go 9-1 to force a playoff with Cardinals.

  2. Bill says: September 23, 2012

    Pretty sure there is no one game playoff. Tiebreaker is the season series, which the Brewers would lose. Have to pass them.

  3. Andy says: September 23, 2012

    File this one under “Yes, We Know.” Look, everyone knew all along that a miraculous wild card berth for the Brewers would take a lot of help from the teams in front of them. Over the past month, they got lots of the help they needed and with 10 games to go, they still need a little bit more. Yeah, it doesn’t look good, but at what point in the season did it? The goal is to finish ahead (or at least tied) at the end of the season, not at any point before then. And because Milwaukee finishes with an easier schedule than St. Louis, even if they’re still a couple games back when the San Diego series starts, it could still be done. Brewlieve!

  4. Jason says: September 23, 2012

    I think that as long as the Brewers are w/in 2 games with 6 left, they are in good shape. With 2 series against the Reds and Nats, the Cards will probably go 2-4

    • Nicholas Zettel says: September 24, 2012

      I think it’s difficult to write off the Cards against the Reds and Nats. Sure, it’d be great to assume that the Brewers can beat those clubs but the Cards can’t (that’s literally what needs to happen), but the Cards are getting things done on their end as much as the Brewers lately.

      I don’t think we can flat out assume that the Cards will likely lose both series.

      • Andy says: September 24, 2012

        You’re right that we can’t assume it, but right now it’s the only way the Brewers will get into the playoffs. Thankfully Washington has incentive to play hard still since it is battling Cincy for the best record in the NL, and not to mention Atlanta is still within striking distance so the Nats can’t just mail it in. Conversely, the Reds also have incentive, due to the current tie with Washington for the best record in the NL. If the Brewers take care of their own business, it is possible, and not even insanely improbable, that they could make up 2 or 3 games even over the last couple series of the season.

        Of course this is all moot if the Brewers don’t keep winning, which at this point seems to mean a minimum record of 7-3. The next four games are huge, obviously. If they can go 3-1 against Zimmerman, Leake, Cueto and Arroyo (no small task!), get excited. Even 2-2 in this tough stretch wouldn’t signal the end as sweeping the final 6 (and at least going 5-1) against Houston and San Diego wouldn’t be inconceivable by any stretch of the imagination.

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